Amped Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 That ugly mess is a tropical storm? Yes a lot of tropical storms are ugly messes. That's why anythiong over 1000mb is dead to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Sunset... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 A name waster for most hardcore tropical folk but some good potential for much needed rain in MX that I will be especially jealous of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 I believe the llv center will be a bit erratic at first, which may try to outrun some of the convection to the east. Thus my forecast calls for a bit faster LF and further N than the NHC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Sunset... Wow...deja vu almost exactly a year later...but Arlene doesn't have Alex's organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 A name waster for most hardcore tropical folk but some good potential for much needed rain in MX that I will be especially jealous of. Sometimes I think people that think storms like this are name wasters have never experienced tropical conditions. Bonnie was nothing last year and we still got a ****load of rain in a short amount of time. The wind was nothing but holy crap was the rain torrential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 50 kt max intensity from NHC. I'm on board with that. I think the hurricane probs are around 25% or so. Agree 100%. The chances of this becoming a hurricane, although relatively low, are probably higher than most people think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rb.html storms starting to fire near the center as the shear starts to relax slowly. Probly the start to slow but steady strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Tropical Storm Arlene Video Update - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Agree 100%. The chances of this becoming a hurricane, although relatively low, are probably higher than most people think. IMO, this will have about 6-12 hours of possible decent organization/intensification tomorrow afternoon. These systems in the BOC, however, often times overperform from past experience, so I agree that the perception that this is a "name waster" is a not giving the situation due creedence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011 ...ARLENE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 94.1W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Ok where's Bret coming from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Are tornadoes a threat to South Texas, or will this be one of the Tropical cyclones that spawn little tornadic activity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 My, what a classic wind field: 34 KT.......100NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Sunset... Nice outflow boundary on the northern edge of the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 29, 2011 Author Share Posted June 29, 2011 Here are my latest thoughts... I agree with the NHC on intensity, but think the southward turn most of the models have is overdone. One thing I'm a little concerned about in my forecast is the potential for rapid intensification. I know most of the mets have been harping on how a broad system like this likely won't have enough time over open water... but the environment is becoming favorable for RI, some very high TPW values around the system. Convective trends tonight will be key to see if RI is at all a possibility tomorrow. http://philstropical....wordpress.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Arlene looking a lot better: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 00z HWRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 29, 2011 Author Share Posted June 29, 2011 00z HWRF lol, that is clearly overdone (typical HWRF). However the trends are looking up... convection is blossoming over the llc currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 A distant shot clearly shows Arlene is organizing, even if a slower pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 My, what a classic wind field: 34 KT.......100NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. No one reacted to my snotty sarcasm. But the system is looking waaaaay better the last couple of frames. Although the Discussion alludes to this-- and points out that the structure ain't so hawt on MW imagery-- this is still a marked improvement. The system has not looked this good since its inception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 No one reacted to my snotty sarcasm. But the system is looking waaaaay better the let couple of frames. Although the Discussion alludes to this-- and points out that the structure ain't so hawt on MW imagery-- this is still a marked improvement. The system has not looked this good since its inception. Snob. The latest microwave shows a nice curved band in the eastern semicircle. Given the very favorable conditions, today's evolution is going to be fun to watch, methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 I'd say so. A max intensity closer to 55-60 KT may be more in the cards. I'm not brave enough to stick my neck out with any cane talk as long as HWRF is the only model to suggest it. Snob. The latest microwave shows a nice curved band in the eastern semicircle. Given the very favorable conditions, today's evolution is going to be fun to watch, methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 29, 2011 Author Share Posted June 29, 2011 Snob. The latest microwave shows a nice curved band in the eastern semicircle. Given the very favorable conditions, today's evolution is going to be fun to watch, methinks. Agreed. We have maybe 24 hours before landfall right now, but it seems like its starting to develop banding features. Deep convection continues to organize and the curved band is evidence on enhanced IR as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 RECON will be arriving within the hour and should find a bit stronger cyclone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 looks like hermine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 RECON: 1001.3 mb from 370 meters and a touch further SW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Decent-looking this morning. Has a cinnabun look, but much better, more-symmetric convection-- including a nice flareup near or over the center: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 12:58Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308) Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2011 Storm Name: Arlene (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 2 Observation Number: 06 A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 12:30:00Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°19'N 95°22'W (21.3167N 95.3667W) B. Center Fix Location: 171 miles (276 km) to the ESE (111°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 90 nautical miles (104 statute miles) to the NE (41°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 101° at 46kts (From between the E and ESE at ~ 52.9mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 138 nautical miles (159 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg) - Extrapolated I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 350m (1,148ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 450m (1,476ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 12 nautical miles Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 11:42:30Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... L/V DIAMETER OF CENTER 24NM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.