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Tropical Depression Arlene


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A name waster for most hardcore tropical folk but some good potential for much needed rain in MX that I will be especially jealous of.

Sometimes I think people that think storms like this are name wasters have never experienced tropical conditions. Bonnie was nothing last year and we still got a ****load of rain in a short amount of time. The wind was nothing but holy crap was the rain torrential.

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50 kt max intensity from NHC. I'm on board with that. I think the hurricane probs are around 25% or so.

Agree 100%. The chances of this becoming a hurricane, although relatively low, are probably higher than most people think.

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Agree 100%. The chances of this becoming a hurricane, although relatively low, are probably higher than most people think.

IMO, this will have about 6-12 hours of possible decent organization/intensification tomorrow afternoon. These systems in the BOC, however, often times overperform from past experience, so I agree that the perception that this is a "name waster" is a not giving the situation due creedence.

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BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011

1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...ARLENE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN

STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...21.4N 94.1W

ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO

ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST. ARLENE IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN

TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE

FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE

COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185

KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

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Here are my latest thoughts... I agree with the NHC on intensity, but think the southward turn most of the models have is overdone. One thing I'm a little concerned about in my forecast is the potential for rapid intensification. I know most of the mets have been harping on how a broad system like this likely won't have enough time over open water... but the environment is becoming favorable for RI, some very high TPW values around the system. Convective trends tonight will be key to see if RI is at all a possibility tomorrow.

http://philstropical....wordpress.com/

2cru044.png

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My, what a classic wind field:

34 KT.......100NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

:wub:

No one reacted to my snotty sarcasm. :(

But the system is looking waaaaay better the last couple of frames. Although the Discussion alludes to this-- and points out that the structure ain't so hawt on MW imagery-- this is still a marked improvement. The system has not looked this good since its inception.

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No one reacted to my snotty sarcasm. :(

But the system is looking waaaaay better the let couple of frames. Although the Discussion alludes to this-- and points out that the structure ain't so hawt on MW imagery-- this is still a marked improvement. The system has not looked this good since its inception.

Snob.

The latest microwave shows a nice curved band in the eastern semicircle. Given the very favorable conditions, today's evolution is going to be fun to watch, methinks.

20110629.0807.aqua1.x.89h_1deg.01LARLENE.35kts-1003mb-217N-946W.95pc.jpg

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I'd say so. A max intensity closer to 55-60 KT may be more in the cards. I'm not brave enough to stick my neck out with any cane talk as long as HWRF is the only model to suggest it.

Snob.

The latest microwave shows a nice curved band in the eastern semicircle. Given the very favorable conditions, today's evolution is going to be fun to watch, methinks.

20110629.0807.aqua1.x.89h_1deg.01LARLENE.35kts-1003mb-217N-946W.95pc.jpg

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Snob.

The latest microwave shows a nice curved band in the eastern semicircle. Given the very favorable conditions, today's evolution is going to be fun to watch, methinks.

Agreed. We have maybe 24 hours before landfall right now, but it seems like its starting to develop banding features. Deep convection continues to organize and the curved band is evidence on enhanced IR as well.

28bd451.jpg

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 12:58Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)

Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2011

Storm Name: Arlene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 2 seeall.png

Observation Number: 06

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 12:30:00Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°19'N 95°22'W (21.3167N 95.3667W) viewmap.png

B. Center Fix Location: 171 miles (276 km) to the ESE (111°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 90 nautical miles (104 statute miles) to the NE (41°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 101° at 46kts (From between the E and ESE at ~ 52.9mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 138 nautical miles (159 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg) - Extrapolated

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 350m (1,148ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 450m (1,476ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 12 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 11:42:30Z

Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

L/V DIAMETER OF CENTER 24NM

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