phil882 Posted June 28, 2011 Author Share Posted June 28, 2011 This is arguably a TS right now given the wide swath of 40+ kt FL winds north of the center, peaking at 45-46 kt so far, and numerous unflagged SFMR > 35 kt. Center isn't well-defined, but I've seen worse-looking circulations classified in the past. Do you think those winds are completely related to the llc of 95L? It seems a little strange that these winds were severe hundred miles northeast of the circulation. Maybe the boosted winds could be enhanced due to the gradient between the high and low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico, creating a low level wind surge off the Yucatan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Perhaps a bit of consolidation occurring near the broad low level circulation this afternoon. If the trend continues, we may well be on our way to a TD before the night is done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Do you think those winds are completely related to the llc of 95L? It seems a little strange that these winds were severe hundred miles northeast of the circulation. Maybe the boosted winds could be enhanced due to the gradient between the high and low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico, creating a low level wind surge off the Yucatan? Do you think it's strange? I think it's just a seriously broad, loose circulation. And it's interesting that I think the GFS was modeling it this way days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 No huge surprises here: I'd guess 45-50kts at landfall. Josh should just spend the season in Mexico and let them all come hit him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 The developing outflow on the E and SE side is looking great, so it's starting to breath better too. The convection does appear to be a bit better looking near the center too. I'd guess as we go through the diurnal phase tonight it'll help tightent the system up a bit and concentrate the vorticity better...this may pull the center around a bit too, so determining a good forward motion will be hard, but that's fairly normal in a developing system. Hopefully as the little ULL moves off to the W that will help to create a bit of an outflow channel on the West side of the system but I have a feeling Arlene may remain a bit of a lopsided system through her duration. Probably looking at 45-50mph at landfall unless something drastically changes. Of course if none of this goes as planned tonight time will be limited for anything decent to develop, so we'll know something as we go through the evening tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Weather Today Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 What's interesting to me is that the tropical wave that helped this system get going maintained a westerly course throughout its trip across the Atlantic. I kinda wondering out loud will this be a sign that the Western & Northern Gulf of Mexico states may be affected by a tropical storm or hurricane in the near future if this pattern maintains itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 28, 2011 Author Share Posted June 28, 2011 Do you think it's strange? I think it's just a seriously broad, loose circulation. And it's interesting that I think the GFS was modeling it this way days ago. It just seems that the winds on the NE flank might be more due to an increased pressure gradient rather than a streghtening low level circulation... since the 30+ knot winds extent well into the Caribbean per the GFS 850mb analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSheridan12 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 CMC dips this thing to 1004 mb a short while before it makes landfall but i think it may give 1000 a run for it's money: SO EXCITED TO GET ARLENE IN THE BOOKS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 The next few weeks could certainly be interesting to see what brews... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InstantWeatherMaps Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Looks like we will finally have Arlene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 TD 1L EDIT...maybe TS Arlene? BEGINNHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al952011_al012011.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201106282316 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 TD 1L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 AL, 01, 2011062818, , BEST, 0, 209N, 933W, 30, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ARLENE, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 AL, 01, 2011062818, , BEST, 0, 209N, 933W, 30, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ARLENE, skip TD altogether? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Shear has abated substantially, and now some modest convection is firing close to the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Any chance it makes a run to hurricane status? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Any chance it makes a run to hurricane status? Very low.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Any chance it makes a run to hurricane status? Honestly probably about 5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 It's official. We have TS Arlene Forecasted to strengthen to 50kts, with landfall very close, just south of Tampico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 woohoo Arlene! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSheridan12 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 It's official. We have TS Arlene Forecasted to strengthen to 50kts, with landfall very close, just south of Tampico Where did you see this? I check the NHC site and it still says 90%, every hurricane season people on EasternUS and now American say that it's official before I see any official announcement, is there somewhere i'm not seeing this announcement or are you guys just presuming that in the next 10-15 minutes the NHC will announce that it is Officially arlene? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Where did you see this? I check the NHC site and it still says 90%, every hurricane season people on EasternUS and now American say that it's official before I see any official announcement, is there somewhere i'm not seeing this announcement or are you guys just presuming that in the next 10-15 minutes the NHC will announce that it is Officially arlene? Refresh the NHC site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 50 kt max intensity from NHC. I'm on board with that. I think the hurricane probs are around 25% or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 See previous posts too. Where did you see this? I check the NHC site and it still says 90%, every hurricane season people on EasternUS and now American say that it's official before I see any official announcement, is there somewhere i'm not seeing this announcement or are you guys just presuming that in the next 10-15 minutes the NHC will announce that it is Officially arlene? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 This is one helluva tropical storm, fills the entire Bay of Campeche and then some. The circulation is already about to reach southern Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSheridan12 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Refresh the NHC site Yeah, i see it now, but when i saw the post from 'weatherkid' I went over to the NHC site, refreshed it, and still saw 90%, i was just wondering if i was missing anything. regardless, congrats everyone on finally getting underway with this season. Looks like its time to get the dust off the rules to the good ole hurricane drinking game (HINT: not pepsi) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Yeah, i see it now, but when i saw the post from 'weatherkid' I went over to the NHC site, refreshed it, and still saw 90%, i was just wondering if i was missing anything. regardless, congrats everyone on finally getting underway with this season. Looks like its time to get the dust off the rules to the good ole hurricane drinking game (HINT: not pepsi) Whenever you see those postings with the "RENUMBER" text and then the subsequent ones with the storm name on the end that means it's generally official. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 I gotta take the the tropical bookmarks out of the closet and fire up google earth. I wasn't ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 The official stuff... BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011 700 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011 ...TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 93.7W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO BAHIA ALGODONES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARRA DE NAUTLA TO BAHIA ALGODONES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 That ugly mess is a tropical storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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