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Tropical Depression Arlene


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Look Kush just dropped some troll magic on the invest. If it busts we know who to blame.

There are layers of complexity in that trolling, such as the DGX not even in its time frame when it makes projected landfall. Respect his skill, and how he is not counting down to Winter in Georgia.

In more important news, Euro predicts over 4 inches of rain for Monterrey, NL, again showing how the tropics are our friend.

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Once that shortwave over the N Central Gulf passes through later today, we'll be in business. I took it to TS at landfall today.

If you look at WV, there still appears to be a little weak s/w right near the Mexico coast about 200 miles south of BRO, but shear does seem to be relaxing.

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It's looking pretty good this morning, the lower-level circulation might be getting tight enough to be considered a TC, will need recon to confirm that. It is a very broad system though, so I don't think it'll exceed winds of 60 mph before landfall. However, a large and healthy moderate tropical storm is nothing to sneeze at, there should be heavy rains and gale force winds across a large area. Also, as this is lifted over the Sierra Madre Oriental catastrophic flooding could occur.

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I may have been a little hard on mid week/last weeks GFS, especially on the weekend when even the GFS was backing down on development a fair amount (and for a couple of runs even the Canadian did not develop it!). From this time last week, a blend of the GFS and Euro would have produced a decent forecast, actually.

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RECON schedule for tomorrow and Thursday...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1100 AM EDT TUE 28 JUNE 2011

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JUNE 2011

TCPOD NUMBER.....11-028

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72

A. 29/1800Z

B. AFXXX 02AAA INVEST

C. 29/1500Z

D. 21.0N 95.50W

E. 29/1730Z TO 29/2200Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73

A. 30/1200Z

B. AFXXX 0301A CYCLONE

C. 30/0915Z

D. 21.5N 97.0W

E. 30/1130Z TO 30/1600Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

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Looking at this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Just eyeballing it, it appears there may be several "centers of circulation" at various levels.

post-300-0-96064900-1309274783.jpg

The easternmost "L" that I have on there might not be real, but if it is, it's relatively new and right under the deeper convection. (The blue "L" is supposed to approximate the mid/upper level CoC)

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Looking at this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-vis.html

Just eyeballing it, it appears there may be several "centers of circulation" at various levels.

post-300-0-96064900-1309274783.jpg

The easternmost "L" that I have on there might not be real, but if it is, it's relatively new and right under the deeper convection. (The blue "L" is supposed to represent the mid/upper level CoC)

There might be, but I think the "true" or dominant LLC is the red L on the left that you marked...maybe a tad NE of your position, but that's nitpicking. It certainly looks better organized, and it looks like ASCAT (the one that Adam posted), was blatantly wrong, because even by yesterday before sunset, it was clear that there was some broad, but clear rotation. Shear is going down also. I think it will be a 40-50kt TS at landfall.

A better "homebrewed" (stealing Ed's lingo) sat loop

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There might be, but I think the "true" or dominant LLC is the red L on the left that you marked...maybe a tad NE of your position, but that's nitpicking. It certainly looks better organized, and it looks like ASCAT (the one that Adam posted), was blatantly wrong, because even by yesterday before sunset, it was clear that there was some broad, but clear rotation. Shear is going down also. I think it will be a 40-50kt TS at landfall.

A better "homebrewed" (stealing Ed's lingo) sat loop

Ya, you're probably right. Just throwing out ideas. :arrowhead:

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Revising my earlier thoughts, it looks to me like there might be one (large) main MLC/LLC taking shape right around here:

post-300-0-01592500-1309279469.jpg

Agree? Disagree?

Agree....the smaller near surface vorticies (under decent mid-level vorticity and low shear) will generally impart and/or consolidate cyclonic surface vorticity toward a common center...which appears to be happening...

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