am19psu Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Not much rotation yet (I don't trust those vectors near the coast at 92W and 95W). Really, not even much of an inverted-v. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 New thread page. GFS family bends it back SW, but other than Nogaps, not much mystery dedpicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Look Kush just dropped some troll magic on the invest. If it busts we know who to blame. There are layers of complexity in that trolling, such as the DGX not even in its time frame when it makes projected landfall. Respect his skill, and how he is not counting down to Winter in Georgia. In more important news, Euro predicts over 4 inches of rain for Monterrey, NL, again showing how the tropics are our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 wind shear still appears to be about 25 kt with the system according to the latest analysis. Also, the 850mb and 700mb vorticity is significantly downstream of the 500mb vort center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Once that shortwave over the N Central Gulf passes through later today, we'll be in business. I took it to TS at landfall today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Once that shortwave over the N Central Gulf passes through later today, we'll be in business. I took it to TS at landfall today. If you look at WV, there still appears to be a little weak s/w right near the Mexico coast about 200 miles south of BRO, but shear does seem to be relaxing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 this is like watching paint dry.. in all seriousness, it's always a good way to get the tropical forecast disco's and forcasting tools warmed up. Keep up the nice work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 this is like watching paint dry.. in all seriousness, it's always a good way to get the tropical forecast disco's and forcasting tools warmed up. Keep up the nice work. Welcome to 75% of all Tropical Cyclones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Keeping an eye near 21N/92W as a possible low level center. The wave axis is further W, just E of Veracruz and convection appears to be increasing N of Ciudad del Carmen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Have this as a 40 KT TS at landfall as of this morning. Risk is to the high side now as far as I'm concerned. Upper levels will improve by tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Have this as a 40 KT TS at landfall as of this morning. Risk is to the high side now as far as I'm concerned. Upper levels will improve by tonight. Stop stealing my forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Stop stealing my forecast You didn't steal the SHIPS/BAM forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 It's looking pretty good this morning, the lower-level circulation might be getting tight enough to be considered a TC, will need recon to confirm that. It is a very broad system though, so I don't think it'll exceed winds of 60 mph before landfall. However, a large and healthy moderate tropical storm is nothing to sneeze at, there should be heavy rains and gale force winds across a large area. Also, as this is lifted over the Sierra Madre Oriental catastrophic flooding could occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 I may have been a little hard on mid week/last weeks GFS, especially on the weekend when even the GFS was backing down on development a fair amount (and for a couple of runs even the Canadian did not develop it!). From this time last week, a blend of the GFS and Euro would have produced a decent forecast, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 RECON schedule for tomorrow and Thursday... WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1100 AM EDT TUE 28 JUNE 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JUNE 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-028 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 A. 29/1800Z B. AFXXX 02AAA INVEST C. 29/1500Z D. 21.0N 95.50W E. 29/1730Z TO 29/2200Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73 A. 30/1200Z B. AFXXX 0301A CYCLONE C. 30/0915Z D. 21.5N 97.0W E. 30/1130Z TO 30/1600Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Today's recon not specifically cancelled in the new POD... Edit to remove redundant POD for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 From this time last week, a blend of the GFS and Euro would have produced a decent forecast, actually. Man, who would've guessed that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Looking at this loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html Just eyeballing it, it appears there may be several "centers of circulation" at various levels. The easternmost "L" that I have on there might not be real, but if it is, it's relatively new and right under the deeper convection. (The blue "L" is supposed to approximate the mid/upper level CoC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Looking at this loop: http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-vis.html Just eyeballing it, it appears there may be several "centers of circulation" at various levels. The easternmost "L" that I have on there might not be real, but if it is, it's relatively new and right under the deeper convection. (The blue "L" is supposed to represent the mid/upper level CoC) There might be, but I think the "true" or dominant LLC is the red L on the left that you marked...maybe a tad NE of your position, but that's nitpicking. It certainly looks better organized, and it looks like ASCAT (the one that Adam posted), was blatantly wrong, because even by yesterday before sunset, it was clear that there was some broad, but clear rotation. Shear is going down also. I think it will be a 40-50kt TS at landfall. A better "homebrewed" (stealing Ed's lingo) sat loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 There might be, but I think the "true" or dominant LLC is the red L on the left that you marked...maybe a tad NE of your position, but that's nitpicking. It certainly looks better organized, and it looks like ASCAT (the one that Adam posted), was blatantly wrong, because even by yesterday before sunset, it was clear that there was some broad, but clear rotation. Shear is going down also. I think it will be a 40-50kt TS at landfall. A better "homebrewed" (stealing Ed's lingo) sat loop Ya, you're probably right. Just throwing out ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Ya, you're probably right. Just throwing out ideas. We'll know in a couple of hours. RECON climbing out of Keesler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 There's actually a non-tasked mission out right now in addition to the regular reservist HH plane. Odd for this kind of disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 There's actually a non-tasked mission out right now in addition to the regular reservist HH plane. Odd for this kind of disturbance. Maybe they're doing a scientific study of environments that form/don't form TC's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 There's actually a non-tasked mission out right now in addition to the regular reservist HH plane. Odd for this kind of disturbance. Training missions will send back messages sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Maybe they're doing a scientific study of environments that form/don't form TC's? Is/Are there going to be anymore Predict like projects with drones and all that good stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 There's actually a non-tasked mission out right now in addition to the regular reservist HH plane. Odd for this kind of disturbance. Not really that odd, there's alot of unsolved mysteries about genesis so it's important to fly into systems like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Revising my earlier thoughts, it looks to me like there might be one (large) main MLC/LLC taking shape right around here: Agree? Disagree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Revising my earlier thoughts, it looks to me like there might be one (large) main MLC/LLC taking shape right around here: Agree? Disagree? Agree. That's what I saw when I looked at the vis loop EDIT: MW backs you up, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Is/Are there going to be anymore Predict like projects with drones and all that good stuff? None that I know of until 13 - http://science.nasa.gov/missions/hs3/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Revising my earlier thoughts, it looks to me like there might be one (large) main MLC/LLC taking shape right around here: Agree? Disagree? Agree....the smaller near surface vorticies (under decent mid-level vorticity and low shear) will generally impart and/or consolidate cyclonic surface vorticity toward a common center...which appears to be happening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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