wxmx Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Tampico has had ~12" so far, and Monterrey ~4.5"... it's still raining in both places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 I love that wispy cirrus/blown out look dead storms get. Pervert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Tampico has had ~12" so far, and Monterrey ~4.5"... it's still raining in both places. Looks like BRO got right about three inches. I was thinking this morning, I have added a request to my morning prayers that Saint Isidore (San Isidro), patron saint of farmers, pray for us to get rain. I had been Googling about Shiner, Texas, the local Catholic parish, St. Methodius and St Cyril (sort of the patron saints of Slavic people) had a prayer asking Saint Isidore to pray for rain on their web page. And the lower RGV is the most Catholic part of Texas. And they got rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 SST shadow, rocking the world! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Compare it to last year SST shadow, rocking the world! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Compare it to last year The Alex footprint. Cool that they both have the same upwelling pattern on northern tip of the Yucatan. I'm guessing that speaks to the (lack of) depth of warm water this time of year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 The Alex footprint. Cool that they both have the same upwelling pattern on northern tip of the Yucatan. I'm guessing that speaks to the (lack of) depth of warm water this time of year? I've always had this idea about OHC vs SSTs. If a Gulf storm can move with alacrity, it can benefit, IMHO, from warmer SSTs than the Caribbean before it upwells too much cold water. But a slow moving major for days and days, ala Mitch, not going to happen with fairly shallow warm water in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 4, 2011 Author Share Posted July 4, 2011 For those interested... I graded my track based off the NHC positions and intensity... I was significantly too far north with my landfall location but was pretty good on timing. My intensity forecast was 5 knots off from about 30 or so hours out. Thus I gave myself a C for the track forecast and a B+ for forecast intensity. Let me know what you guys think! Some of the other mets that posted forecast here for fun, it would be cool to see you critique your forecasts as well! http://philstropical...he-next-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 For those interested... I graded my track based off the NHC positions and intensity... I was significantly too far north with my landfall location but was pretty good on timing. My intensity forecast was 5 knots off from about 30 or so hours out. Thus I gave myself a C for the track forecast and a B+ for forecast intensity. Let me know what you guys think! Some of the other mets that posted forecast here for fun, it would be cool to see you critique your forecasts as well! I think you are being too hard on yourself for track. 1 deg isn't much at all. I actually feel like I nailed the track 5 days out, but sucked on intensity. Too weak at first, then too strong in the last 18 hrs before landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 I never posted this because I dont have confidence in forecasting anything, I got the track down good for an A-, but I only expected a minimal tropical storm so that would be a D on intensity, next time I will post my forecast and hopefully do better next time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 The area around Tampico received 12-20" of rain, with Tampico proper receiving 17.5" from June 26th-Jul 2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 It was much needed rain for that area, but as they say, too much too soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 It was much needed rain for that area, but as they say, too much too soon Yeah, but overall it left huge benefits. I'm curious about seeing a map of Arlene's related precipitations, they covered a huge area... probably top 3 for MX wrt tropical cyclones. Hopefully thegreatdr can get interested in the task Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 4, 2011 Author Share Posted July 4, 2011 Yeah, but overall it left huge benefits. I'm curious about seeing a map of Arlene's related precipitations, they covered a huge area... probably top 3 for MX wrt tropical cyclones. Hopefully thegreatdr can get interested in the task How did this event compare with Alex last year? I imagine Alex was still far worse for your location, although Arlene was of comparable size (looking at satellite) while it was making landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 How did this event compare with Alex last year? I imagine Alex was still far worse for your location, although Arlene was of comparable size (looking at satellite) while it was making landfall. For my location there's no comparision, 4.6" vs 20+" with Alex last year (with a maxima of ~32" in the Sern part of the city), but for the country overall, I think Arlene might have been wetter. Other than most of the Baja peninsula and very far north Coahuila and some very localized places elsewhere, Arlene and it's related precipitations drenched almost every other part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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