sc2man13 Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 I work outside as a lifeguard in the sun and drive a black car with no air conditioning and half the windows don't roll down. I am going to DIE friday...I hate this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 I could imagine the "standard" nam and the "para" nam arguing on the finer details. Frankly, outside winter any nam is to much for me lol. Talking about winter, I am getting jacked up for a real winterstorm thread. After the GHday epic and the storms that followed, I was pretty burned out. But it doesn't take long, by July the flame starts burning again. I think the only thread that would trump the GHday threads would be a triple phaser. The new parallel NAM is superior to the old NAM--we will finally be getting a reliable mesoscale model. And I agree--I am already yearning for some synoptic winter bombs. For now, the summer doldrums just begin with the monsoon about to setup across the southeast. We got a ways to go unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 MOS saying Saturday will be the hotter day of the two for LAF. We'll see. Here's the Friday and Saturday high temps from all three. 0z MEX: 90, 91 6z MAV: 90, 94 0z MET: 88, 93 Latest NWS forecast for LAF Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. South southwest wind between 7 and 13 mph. Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 70. Southwest wind between 7 and 10 mph. Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 95. West southwest wind between 7 and 9 mph. Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Really hoping we can get some convection to round the bend into Northeast Illinois this evening, preferrably raging all night and loading the area with debris. Probably wishful thinking, big time heat looks like reality. lower/mid 60s lake water will feel great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Really hoping we can get some convection to round the bend into Northeast Illinois this evening, preferrably raging all night and loading the area with debris. Probably wishful thinking, big time heat looks like reality. lower/mid 60s lake water will feel great. The 12z 4km WRF grants your wish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 The 12z 4km WRF grants your wish... yeah some of the hi-res guidance has been showing stuff like that for a while now. Fairly low confidence, but nothing we haven't see before. These can offer nice photo ops as well if it stays just east off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 I'm betting MKE and the rest of the CWA hasn't seen 110F heat indexes in the last 5 or 10 years but maybe once. Considering we haven't hit 100 in several years, this could be near historic heat in a couple areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 yeah some of the hi-res guidance has been showing stuff like that for a while now. Fairly low confidence, but nothing we haven't see before. These can offer nice photo ops as well if it stays just east off shore. Hi-res guidance now has support from the 12z ECMWF, which also brings the activity into NE. Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Well they did it, multiple 80+ degree dewpoints in northern MN and ND. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Hi-res guidance now has support from the 12z ECMWF, which also brings the activity into NE. Illinois. going to watch the western flank of the action over the lake to see if anything can back build into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 The 12z 4km WRF grants your wish... Wow, that stuff trains over the same area for several hours. Could see some flooding issues if that comes to pass. Definitely a low confidence forecast into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Wow, that stuff trains over the same area for several hours. Could see some flooding issues if that comes to pass. Definitely a low confidence forecast into tomorrow. could you imagine the DPs with all that soil moisture evaporating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 could you imagine the DPs with all that soil moisture evaporating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 LOT thinks we stay dry STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENABLE PREVAILING SOUTHERLYWINDS AT OR ABOVE 10 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE HIGHTEENS TO AROUND 20 KT...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRFD BUT STILL POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STILL THINK THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM AS WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO REGION WILL STAY EAST OF THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. STRONG WARMING AND DECENT DRY AIR ALOFT WILL TEND PUT A LID ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND BEST FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FORMED OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND IS SLIDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD BE THE GENERAL THEME WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM LATER TONIGHT BUT WILL CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF UPDATES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Well they did it, multiple 80+ degree dewpoints in northern MN and ND. Impressive. Grand Forks 94/77, HI 109...that's crazy for that part of the country. The highest HI I've seen so far today is 110 in Des Moines (95/77). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Grand Forks 94/77, HI 109...that's crazy for that part of the country. The highest HI I've seen so far today is 110 in Des Moines (95/77). Atlantic Iowa, 99/77, HI 116 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Atlantic Iowa, 99/77, HI 116 Yikes...I missed the little towns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Grand Forks 94/77, HI 109...that's crazy for that part of the country. The highest HI I've seen so far today is 110 in Des Moines (95/77). Atlantic Iowa, 99/77, HI 116 Knoxville, IA - 99/82/126 Newton, IA - 97/82/123 Fairfield, IA - 93/81/113 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Merzlock with his last AFD for LOT... WELL...AS PORKY PIG WOULD SAY...THAT'S ALL FOLKS! IT DOESN'T SEEM LIKE 30 YEARS OF FEDERAL SERVICE HAS COME AND GONE, BUT AS MANY OF YOU KNOW, THIS WILL BE MAY LAST ISSUANCE AS A PROUD EMPLOYEE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. BUT, I DON'T INTEND TO FALL OFF THE GRID. I CONSIDER THIS MORE OF A LATERAL, OR PCS INTO A DIFFERENT LINE OF WORK. LIKE ANYONE ELSE, I HAVE REAL MIXED EMOTIONS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT I KNOW I'M MAKING THE RIGHT DECISION. ROTATING SHIFTS WHICH NEVER SEEMED TO BOTHER ME BEFORE HAVE BECOME MORE AND MORE BURDENSOME. ON THE OTHER HAND, THIS EXPERIENCE HAS BEEN A BLESSING. HOW MANY PEOPLE CAN SPEND THEIR PROFESSIONAL CAREER DOING SOMETHING THEY LOVE, SURROUNDED BY COWORKERS WHO ARE SOME OF THE MOST DEDICATED AND SELFLESS PEOPLE YOU'LL EVER MEET. SO, I PLAN ON ENJOYING SNOWSTORMS AND OTHER WILD WEATHER IN THE COMING YEARS. AS MUCH AS I'M A LOVER OF WINTER WEATHER...I GUESS IT'S KIND OF FITTING THAT I HEAD OUT AFTER ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY WITH THE PROSPECT OF MY FIRST DAY IN RETIREMENT BEING VERY SNYDER- ESQUE. ONE LAST TIP FOR LONG RANGE FORECASTING: MEDIO TUTISSIMUS IBIS...OR THE MIDDLE PATH IS THE SAFEST. WITH THAT...I'LL SIGN OFF. MERZLOCK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Merzlock with his last AFD for LOT... MERZLOCK Also been noticing the storms developing near Green Bay and out over the lake. Might swing by/backbuild over us later tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 They have lost some decent mets the past year or so... Halbach is now a lead forecaster at NWS ARX, Boxell is now at NWS SGF, and now Merzlock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Also been noticing the storms developing near Green Bay and out over the lake. Might swing by/backbuild over us later tonight.. Watching them as well, liking where I sit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Elevated t storms to my nw about to roll into the Michiana area. Virtually no CAPE to work with, but being on the edge of the theta air and with the LLJ progged to increase tonight we might get a pre Independence day light show around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 They have lost some decent mets the past year or so... Halbach is now a lead forecaster at NWS ARX, Boxell is now at NWS SGF, and now Merzlock. talked to Merzlock a ton when I was in there at LOT shadowing those guys a few days before the blizzard this past winter. He is a great guy with tons of knowledge. Will never forget him saying it was the most impressive snow setup he has ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 They have lost some decent mets the past year or so... Halbach is now a lead forecaster at NWS ARX, Boxell is now at NWS SGF, and now Merzlock. thats where Gino came from. They should hold drafts for mets haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 thats where Gino came from. They should hold drafts for mets haha Hopefully they franchise Izzi and keep him for at least a 7 year contract lol. DVN only going for 94 again for the QC for tomorrow. Probably a safe call but I think we may end up more like 96-97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Grand Forks 94/77, HI 109...that's crazy for that part of the country. The highest HI I've seen so far today is 110 in Des Moines (95/77). Yeah it is very impressive for up there. Moorhead, MN just east of Fargo hit 95/81. That is about the hottest I could find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Watching them as well, liking where I sit Pretty sick looking radar image of the storms running down the length of the lake.. Almost looks like a Jaques de Plume lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Pretty sick looking radar image of the storms running down the length of the lake.. Almost looks like a Jaques de Plume lol. It's similar to what the 12z 4km WRF projected (coverage/presentation), except for the fact it's farther east and occuring earlier thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Creeping west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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