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July 2011 general discussion/obs thread


OHSnow

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I could imagine the "standard" nam and the "para" nam arguing on the finer details. Frankly, outside winter any nam is to much for me lol.

Talking about winter, I am getting jacked up for a real winterstorm thread. After the GHday epic and the storms that followed, I was pretty burned out. But it doesn't take long, by July the flame starts burning again. I think the only thread that would trump the GHday threads would be a triple phaser.

The new parallel NAM is superior to the old NAM--we will finally be getting a reliable mesoscale model.

And I agree--I am already yearning for some synoptic winter bombs. For now, the summer doldrums just begin with the monsoon about to setup across the southeast. We got a ways to go unfortunately.

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MOS saying Saturday will be the hotter day of the two for LAF. We'll see. Here's the Friday and Saturday high temps from all three.

0z MEX: 90, 91

6z MAV: 90, 94

0z MET: 88, 93

Latest NWS forecast for LAF

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. South southwest wind between 7 and 13 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 70. Southwest wind between 7 and 10 mph.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 95. West southwest wind between 7 and 9 mph.

Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 89.

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Really hoping we can get some convection to round the bend into Northeast Illinois this evening, preferrably raging all night and loading the area with debris. Probably wishful thinking, big time heat looks like reality. lower/mid 60s lake water will feel great.

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Really hoping we can get some convection to round the bend into Northeast Illinois this evening, preferrably raging all night and loading the area with debris. Probably wishful thinking, big time heat looks like reality. lower/mid 60s lake water will feel great.

The 12z 4km WRF grants your wish...

post-147-0-19216900-1309451351.gif

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yeah some of the hi-res guidance has been showing stuff like that for a while now. Fairly low confidence, but nothing we haven't see before. These can offer nice photo ops as well if it stays just east off shore.

Hi-res guidance now has support from the 12z ECMWF, which also brings the activity into NE. Illinois.

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LOT thinks we stay dry

STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENABLE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY

WINDS AT OR ABOVE 10 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE HIGHTEENS TO AROUND 20 KT...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRFD BUT STILL

POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE

TAF PERIOD. STILL THINK THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM AS WARM

FRONT PUSHES INTO REGION WILL STAY EAST OF THE TERMINALS LATE

TONIGHT. STRONG WARMING AND DECENT DRY AIR ALOFT WILL TEND PUT A

LID ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND BEST FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION

WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX

FORMED OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND IS SLIDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD

NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME.

THIS SHOULD BE THE GENERAL THEME WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM

LATER TONIGHT BUT WILL CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR WITH

SUBSEQUENT TAF UPDATES

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Merzlock with his last AFD for LOT...

WELL...AS PORKY PIG WOULD SAY...THAT'S ALL FOLKS! IT DOESN'T SEEM

LIKE 30 YEARS OF FEDERAL SERVICE HAS COME AND GONE, BUT AS MANY OF

YOU KNOW, THIS WILL BE MAY LAST ISSUANCE AS A PROUD EMPLOYEE OF THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. BUT, I DON'T INTEND TO FALL OFF THE

GRID. I CONSIDER THIS MORE OF A LATERAL, OR PCS INTO A DIFFERENT

LINE OF WORK. LIKE ANYONE ELSE, I HAVE REAL MIXED EMOTIONS THIS

AFTERNOON, BUT I KNOW I'M MAKING THE RIGHT DECISION. ROTATING

SHIFTS WHICH NEVER SEEMED TO BOTHER ME BEFORE HAVE BECOME MORE AND

MORE BURDENSOME. ON THE OTHER HAND, THIS EXPERIENCE HAS BEEN A

BLESSING. HOW MANY PEOPLE CAN SPEND THEIR PROFESSIONAL CAREER DOING

SOMETHING THEY LOVE, SURROUNDED BY COWORKERS WHO ARE SOME OF THE MOST

DEDICATED AND SELFLESS PEOPLE YOU'LL EVER MEET.

SO, I PLAN ON ENJOYING SNOWSTORMS AND OTHER WILD WEATHER IN THE

COMING YEARS. AS MUCH AS I'M A LOVER OF WINTER WEATHER...I GUESS

IT'S KIND OF FITTING THAT I HEAD OUT AFTER ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY

WITH THE PROSPECT OF MY FIRST DAY IN RETIREMENT BEING VERY SNYDER-

ESQUE.

ONE LAST TIP FOR LONG RANGE FORECASTING: MEDIO TUTISSIMUS IBIS...OR

THE MIDDLE PATH IS THE SAFEST. WITH THAT...I'LL SIGN OFF.

MERZLOCK

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They have lost some decent mets the past year or so... Halbach is now a lead forecaster at NWS ARX, Boxell is now at NWS SGF, and now Merzlock.

talked to Merzlock a ton when I was in there at LOT shadowing those guys a few days before the blizzard this past winter. He is a great guy with tons of knowledge. Will never forget him saying it was the most impressive snow setup he has ever seen.

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Pretty sick looking radar image of the storms running down the length of the lake.. Almost looks like a Jaques de Plume lol.

It's similar to what the 12z 4km WRF projected (coverage/presentation), except for the fact it's farther east and occuring earlier thus far.

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