Thundersnow12 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Well, they are talking about the heat index. I don't imagine it's super difficult to get 2 days in a row of that. No, they are talking about actual highs, read the bolded parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Are there any forecast soundings available for that? Doesn't look like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 No, they are talking about actual highs, read the bolded parts I took HI's to stand for heat indices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 I took HI's to stand for heat indices. oh ya....wow just made myself look like an idiot lol Well friday for sure looks possible for some triple digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 DVN only going for 93-94 for the QC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 New NAM further west with the 850mb thermal ridge Friday. Low to mid 90s is definitely the safe bet for northern Illinois. How many times have we seen 850mb temps slowly but surely drop as we get closer in the sub 84hr range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 New NAM further west with the 850mb thermal ridge Friday. Low to mid 90s is definitely the safe bet for northern Illinois. How many times have we seen 850mb temps slowly but surely drop as we get closer in the sub 84hr range? I wouldn't even pay attention to the OP NAM anymore, it's been horrible compared to the Para NAM...which fits in with the rest of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 I wouldn't even pay attention to the OP NAM anymore, it's been horrible compared to the Para NAM...which fits in with the rest of guidance. gotta link for the para? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 gotta link for the para? http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/nampll_nmmb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Seems like the front is slowing down a little on the latest runs. Not like it matters a whole lot anyway since the post-frontal cooling outside of any storm clusters isn't much to write home about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 http://www.emc.ncep....ll/nampll_nmmb/ Thanks. The GFS is forecasting 80 degree dews for us starting late Thursday and lasting through at least late Monday lol. Probably overdone, but damn. EDIT: Add Tuesday with another 80+ dewpoint day according to the new GFS. Wednesday and Thursday fall short of 80 degree dews at only around 77-79 lol. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 KORD reported on 29-JUN-2011 KORD GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 6/29/2011 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 WED 29| THU 30| FRI 01| SAT 02| SUN 03| MON 04| TUE 05| WED 06 CLIMO X/N 79| 61 87| 70 93| 76 91| 71 91| 71 91| 69 89| 69 86 62 83 TMP 73| 66 80| 73 89| 78 85| 74 84| 75 85| 73 84| 73 80 DPT 58| 61 65| 68 71| 73 71| 69 67| 69 67| 66 65| 66 62 CLD CL| CL PC| PC PC| PC OV| PC PC| PC PC| PC PC| PC PC WND 8| 8 13| 11 15| 10 9| 8 9| 8 10| 9 12| 9 10 P12 2| 2 10| 17 13| 31 36| 38 39| 42 24| 27 22| 25 25 24 19 P24 | 14| 24| 47| 52| 52| 40| 41 34 Q12 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 1| 2 1| 3 0| 0 | Q24 | 0| 0| 1| 3| 3| | T12 5| 4 28| 40 28| 49 38| 46 42| 39 31| 32 24| 26 32 T24 | 9 | 44 | 54 | 63 | 55 | 46 | 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 I stole this from Beau over on the flood thread. I saw the OH/MI guys bickering about rainfall amounts in the Detroit/Cleveland/Toledo area. It seems that there is a mini-drought developing in SE MI/NW OH. It's anomalous as compared to the rest of the northern part pf the country. Near normal rainfall for June here (SW of FWA), but we're still +9" for the year thanks to copious spring rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 It took until July 22 last summer for LAF to record its first 80º dewpoint. Starting Friday through seemingly the foreseeable future, we'll have some good chances. GUS, LAF's co-champion in Indiana for high dewpoints, has already logged one 80º+ dewpoint this summer (81º on 6/21)...we're already playing catch up. 0z GFS peak dewpoints for LAF (Fri to Tue): 80, 81, 80, 79, 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 I just got up outta bed and have to say that last night had to be some of the most absolute best sleeping weather for this time of year. Amazing listening to the frogs and looking at the glow of the fireflies...doesn't get any better. Looking nasty for Fri and even July looking like it wants to get hot with some spikes of heat tempered by some cool shots. All in all not to bad a summer, a little something for everyone which I can live with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 I stole this from Beau over on the flood thread. I saw the OH/MI guys bickering about rainfall amounts in the Detroit/Cleveland/Toledo area. It seems that there is a mini-drought developing in SE MI/NW OH. It's anomalous as compared to the rest of the northern part pf the country. Near normal rainfall for June here (SW of FWA), but we're still +9" for the year thanks to copious spring rains. Yeah I think after this weekend this little area of drought south of Detroit over to Toledo will be gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Skilling's now going with 99F for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Skilling's now going with 99F for Friday. I'm gonna be interested to see what temps are like out west on Thursday compared to guidance. That may give some clues as to what to expect on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 sounds got damn awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Looks like LOT is now going with 100F for Chicago... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=70152&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Later in the euro run looks almost chilly around the Great Lakes and Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 IND's take TEMPS ON FRIDAY ARE MORE PROBLEMATIC. IMPRESSIVE 850MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 22-25C WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THERMAL TEMP RIDGE SETS UP TO NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF LIMITING FACTORS IN PLAY THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP FULL POTENTIAL OF THE 850MB TEMPS FROM BEING REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. REMNANT CLOUDS FROM ANY CONVECTION IN THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MAY STUNT TEMP RISES SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY. ALSO...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY POOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WITH LEVELS MAXING AT AROUND 900MB. TEMPS LIKELY TO STILL REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MANY LOCATIONS...BUT FACTORS ABOVE MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN JUST A COUPLE DEGREES FROM FULL POTENTIAL WITH 850MB TEMPS PRESENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 DVN bumped the QC a few more degrees to 95 for Friday. Not as bullish as LOT on the temps, but they did pull the trigger on an excessive sweat watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Later in the euro run looks almost chilly around the Great Lakes and Northeast. Hardly. Unless your looking at fantasy land 200+ hrs. Remember "fantasy" and its the ECMWF..it will change..never trust any model 100 hrs out. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 I'll believe the GFS and forecasts for this heat and humidity when I feel it. I may have to eat my words but it has been fairly difficult to get sustained heat and dews up here in MIchiana with MCS's hanging southward of us so far. Maybe this will be time for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 0z NAM is showing better mixing than previous runs... Though I'd still trust the Para run much more, so we'll see what it shows later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 I could imagine the "standard" nam and the "para" nam arguing on the finer details. Frankly, outside winter any nam is to much for me lol. Talking about winter, I am getting jacked up for a real winterstorm thread. After the GHday epic and the storms that followed, I was pretty burned out. But it doesn't take long, by July the flame starts burning again. I think the only thread that would trump the GHday threads would be a triple phaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 0z NAM is showing better mixing than previous runs... Though I'd still trust the Para run much more, so we'll see what it shows later. That looks like about 875 mb. Mixing that down would yield 97 or 98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 LOT is all in with this heat wave. Meteorological aspects of 100 degree heat locally has several maps from 1995, the contemporary benchmark event for northeast Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 00z NAM has the QC at 96/81 at 4pm Friday. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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