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July 2011 general discussion/obs thread


OHSnow

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By my calculations, LAF finishes July with a 79.9º average temperature. Kinda like this past winter finishing with 49.0" of snow and just missing 50". Well maybe not. :arrowhead:

Average high: 90.0

Average low: 69.8

Average temp: 79.9

Total precipitation: 3.37"

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By my calculations, LAF finishes July with a 79.9º average temperature. Kinda like this past winter finishing with 49.0" of snow and just missing 50". Well maybe not. :arrowhead:

Winter was worse. It looked like we had 50" all but locked up and then the snow machine shut down.

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Final July temperature rankings -- Hottest on record at Detroit, Fort Wayne, and Columbus OH; 2nd Hottest on Record at Toledo, Cleveland, Erie PA, Indianapolis; 3rd hottest on record at Flint MI and Chicago; 4th hottest on record at Des Moines, St. Louis, Saginaw MI and Mansfield OH; 5th hottest on record at Akron/Canton OH and Rockford IL.

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The available LAF data is sort of sketchy and whole months are missing at times, but the record is "fairly solid" since 1964 (outside 3-4 entire Julys missing data), but this July would be the hottest at 79.9º with what I've found. The WL COOP has been around since 1901 and it has six months hotter than this edition.

LAF hottest Julys since 1964...

1) 79.9º - 2011

2) 79.6º - 1983

3) 79.1º - 1999

4) 78.6º - 1980

5) 78.1º - 1995

WL COOP hottest Julys since 1901...

1) 83.7º - 1936

2) 82.4º - 1934

3) 81.1º - 1901

4) 80.5º - 1921

5) 80.5º - 1931

6) 80.4º - 1916

When looking at just average high temps in July at LAF, this one would rank 4th. Likewise for average July lows, it would be #1.

Average high temps in July at LAF...

1) 92.9º - 1983

2) 90.7º - 1988

3) 90.3º - 1980

4) 90.0º - 2011

4) 90.0º - 1977

Average low temps in July at LAF...

1) 69.8º - 2011

2) 69.0º - 1999

3) 68.4º - 1978

4) 67.3º - 1986

5) 67.0º - 1980

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Mixed bag of precip records in the lower Great Lakes Region in July:

The Haves

Detroit 7.66" (2nd wettest)

Flint 6.43" (5th wettest)

Cleveland 7.47" (4th wettest)

Chicago 11.15" (Wettest)

The Have Nots

Erie, PA 0.74" (3rd driest)

Indianapolis 0.47" (Driest)

Fort Wayne 0.98" (4th Driest)

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The 00z NAM looks pretty hot for Tuesday. Brings H85 temps to around 25C in Indianapolis and 23C in Toledo. I would think that would support widespread mid-to-upper 90s, but the NWS forecasts are much lower at this point. Heck, 100 wouldn't be out of question in the localized drought area near Fort Wayne.

I don't know if it mixes that high, but the pattern looks like it would be one that would be favorable for good mixing heights with a cold front pressing southwards and a ~998 mb low in northern MI.

Edit: And it's a good trend for heat. The 12z at the same timeframe was only showing about 23C in Indy, and 20C at Toledo, so the 00z run is about 2 to 3 C warmer than the 12z.

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The 00z NAM looks pretty hot for Tuesday. Brings H85 temps to around 25C in Indianapolis and 23C in Toledo. I would think that would support widespread mid-to-upper 90s, but the NWS forecasts are much lower at this point. Heck, 100 wouldn't be out of question in the localized drought area near Fort Wayne.

Severe weather parameters are pretty good too for Eastern Michigan/Northern Ohio/SW Ontario.

1500 J/KG of SBCAPE with some pretty good helicity (and 50kts of bulk shear from the Surface to 700-500mb).

Could be an interesting day.

The temperature gradient is very notable too. NAM keeps the thumb region stuck in the mid-upper 70s all day, where as Detroit does manage to sneak up to around 90*F briefly.

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A few statistics on July for Chicago/ORD, many of which have been mentioned and are now official...

July 2011 ended up being the 3rd warmest July on record and tied for the 4th all time warmest month on record. July 2011 also is now the wettest July on record and the 7th all time wettest month on record. This month featured 12 days of 90+ temps (two days at 99F) and 19 days with a min temp of 70+, including 1 day with a min temp of 80. 30/31 days featured a high temp of 80+, which is tied for the 2nd most on record. Also of note was the quick turn around from very dry conditions to very wet conditions. Only 0.41" of rain fell through July 19th, which would have made it the 2nd driest July on record if the month would have ended at that point. 10.74" then fell between July 20-29th, which quickly turned it into the wettest July on record.

Top 10 warmest July's on record:

1. 81.3 - 1955

2. 81.2 - 1921

3. 79.0 - 2011

4. 78.5 - 1977

5. 78.5 - 1916

6. 78.4 - 1999

7. 78.3 - 1966

8. 77.8 - 1949

9. 77.7 - 2010

10. 77.6 - 1995

Top 10 warmest months on record:

1. 81.3 - July 1955

2. 81.2 - July 1921

3. 80.2 - August 1947

4. 79.0 - July 2011

5. 79.0 - August 1995

6. 78.7 - August 1959

7. 78.7 - August 1955

8. 78.5 - July 1977

9. 78.5 - July 1916

10. 78.4 - July 1999

July 80+ Days

Normal...19.9

1955.....31

2011.....30

2010.....30

1999.....30

1944.....29

Top 10 wettest July's on record...

1. 11.15" - 2011

2. 9.56" - 1889

3. 8.98" - 1957

4. 8.84" - 2010

5. 8.33" - 1982

6. 7.58" - 1969

7. 7.31" - 1963

8. 7.18" - 1875

9. 6.78" - 1950

10. 6.66" - 1899

Top 10 wettest months on record:

1. 17.10" - August 1987

2. 14.17" - September 1961

3. 13.63 - September 2008

4. 12.25" - July 2001

5. 12.06" - October 1954

6. 11.28" - July 1885

7. 11.15" - July 2011

8. 10.58" - June 1892

9. 9.96" - June 1992

10. 9.70" - August 2007

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