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July 2011 general discussion/obs thread


OHSnow

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July 2011 will go down in history at Indianapolis as the hottest month since July 1936 and among

the four hottest months since weather records began in 1871. During the summer of 1936, the

Midwest and much of the nation was in the middle of the epic Dust Bowl.

An upper air ridge has prevailed over the central United States this summer as a result of severe

to exceptional drought conditions in much of New Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma. Not only has

this ridge contributed to the heat wave, but it has also deflected storms from much of central

Indiana during July.

As of the 27th, the airport had received only 0.33 inches of rain. This was nearly 4 inches below

the monthly normal rainfall for July. Depending on the amount of rainfall during the next few

days, July 2011 may also go into history as one of the driest months of record.

Hottest Months of Record

Rank Value Month/Year

1 82.8 July 1936

2 81.9 July 1901

3 81.8 July 2011 projected as of the 28th

4 81.6 July 1934

5 81.1 July 1921

6 80.7 July 1916

7 80.5 Aug. 1936

Driest Julys of Record

Rank Value Year

1 0.33 2011 as of the 27th

2 0.49 1914

3 0.55 1997

4 0.67 1936

5 0.82 1881

6 0.83 1901, 1893

8 0.90 1940, 1930

10 0.97 1919, 1890

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July 2011 will go down in history at Indianapolis as the hottest month since July 1936 and among

the four hottest months since weather records began in 1871. During the summer of 1936, the

Midwest and much of the nation was in the middle of the epic Dust Bowl.

An upper air ridge has prevailed over the central United States this summer as a result of severe

to exceptional drought conditions in much of New Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma. Not only has

this ridge contributed to the heat wave, but it has also deflected storms from much of central

Indiana during July.

As of the 27th, the airport had received only 0.33 inches of rain. This was nearly 4 inches below

the monthly normal rainfall for July. Depending on the amount of rainfall during the next few

days, July 2011 may also go into history as one of the driest months of record.

Hottest Months of Record

Rank Value Month/Year

1 82.8 July 1936

2 81.9 July 1901

3 81.8 July 2011 projected as of the 28th

4 81.6 July 1934

5 81.1 July 1921

6 80.7 July 1916

7 80.5 Aug. 1936

Driest Julys of Record

Rank Value Year

1 0.33 2011 as of the 27th

2 0.49 1914

3 0.55 1997

4 0.67 1936

5 0.82 1881

6 0.83 1901, 1893

8 0.90 1940, 1930

10 0.97 1919, 1890

Maybe that met you guys were making fun of wasn't so far off this summer? :)

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The dewpoint has been 80 at Moline for the last 3 hours now. 78 here. I lost about 5lbs of sweat earlier this evening mowing.

Looks like tonight will end up quiet here. Storms look to fire east and south of us. The lingering cloud cover and lack of forcing kept Iowa and northwest Illinois quiet despite other ingredients in place.

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Something like 2 or 3 degrees warmer than the summer of 1936.

Oh wow. Now I see why you guys like to give him a little grief. Thats insane. In order for that to have happened we would have needed to be in a drought starting in the spring, and instead it was fairly wet. I think its a bit to late unless this recent dry spell will help to heat us in August.

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Oh wow. Now I see why you guys like to give him a little grief. Thats insane. In order for that to have happened we would have needed to be in a drought starting in the spring, and instead it was fairly wet. I think its a bit to late unless this recent dry spell will help to heat us in August.

My problem wasn't so much that he predicted it, but that the reasoning was shallow and that's being generous. Maybe he was trying to keep things simple but the more extreme your call is, the more reasoning you should provide imo. Worth mentioning that is has been quite a bit wetter than what he predicted.

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LAF the only location in Indiana to not drop below 80 overnight/this morning. :facepalm:

I must have missed his forecast, what did he predict for the summer? I do like to read his blog though, he's got quite the passion for weather.

80.1, a full degree higher than 1936 (79.0). I'll give him credit for the right idea, but his number was too high and really unrealistic. For the rest of met summer, starting today, LAF has to average 86.6 to get to his 80.1. As Hoosier stated, his precip forecast has gone up in flames though.

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75 now. If that low of 80 would've held throughout the day, it would've only been the second time since 1944 that the airport didn't drop below 80.

It was a little suspicious compared to everyone else in the state IMO, but the rain took care of it obviously. Only 0.12" unfortunately at LAF.

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With 90+ possible on Sat/Sun, it appears ORD will end up with 30/31 days with 80+ temps this month. If true, July 2011 will be tied in 2nd for the most 80+ days in the month of July.

JULY 80+ DEGREE DAYS

NORMAL...19.9

1955.....31

2010.....30

1999.....30

1944.....29

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With 90+ possible on Sat/Sun, it appears ORD will end up with 30/31 days with 80+ temps this month. If true, July 2011 will be tied in 2nd for the most 80+ days in the month of July.

JULY 80+ DEGREE DAYS

NORMAL...19.9

1955.....31

2010.....30

1999.....30

1944.....29

Not questioning your data...but wow...I find it hard to believe that only 20/31 days in a typical July hit 80F+ in Chicago. That seems way too low...unless the data is included when the official thermometer was right by the lake. Even then, it shouldn't make much of a difference, as the lake water temps are fairly warm in July anyway.

I would have expected the average to be around 25, not 20.

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With the high/low temps expected the last two days of the month, it looks likely that Chicago/ORD will end up with the 3rd warmest July on record.

Top 10 warmest July's on record:

1. 81.3 - 1955

2. 81.2 - 1921

3. 79.1 - 2011

4. 78.5 - 1977

5. 78.5 - 1916

6. 78.4 - 1999

7. 78.3 - 1966

8. 77.8 - 1949

9. 77.7 - 2010

10. 77.6 - 1995

Through the 29th, July is the 4th warmest month all time for Chicago/ORD.

Top 10 warmest months on record:

1. 81.3 - July 1955

2. 81.2 - July 1921

3. 80.2 - August 1947

4. 79.1 - July 2011

5. 79.0 - August 1995

6. 78.7 - August 1959

7. 78.7 - August 1955

8. 78.5 - July 1977

9. 78.5 - July 1916

10. 78.4 - July 1999

If not for some convective debris on a several occasions keeping temps out of the 90's, it's quite possible ORD could have be pretty damn close to the warmest month on record.

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Hottest Months of Record

Rank Value Month/Year

1 82.8 July 1936

2 81.9 July 1901

3 81.8 July 2011 projected as of the 28th

4 81.6 July 1934

5 81.1 July 1921

6 80.7 July 1916

7 80.5 Aug. 1936

Driest Julys of Record

Rank Value Year

1 0.33 2011 as of the 27th

2 0.49 1914

3 0.55 1997

4 0.67 1936

5 0.82 1881

6 0.83 1901, 1893

8 0.90 1940, 1930

10 0.97 1919, 1890

IND through yesterday...

[TEMPERATURE DATA]

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 81.9

DPTR FM NORMAL: 6.4

[PRECIPITATION DATA]

TOTAL FOR MONTH: 0.42

DPTR FM NORMAL: -3.88

Looks like they picked up 0.05" since midnight, which makes them 0.02" shy of 1914. So this July should break that record. As for temps, #2 looks locked up.

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