Chicago Storm Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 12z GFS MOS showing 94F for ORD on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Looks like another single day heat burst coming up, not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 12z GFS MOS showing 94F for ORD on Friday. It's putting out 94, 93, and 92 for Fri, Sat, and Sun for LAF. Heat wave #2 of the summer here get ready, get set... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 It's putting out 94, 93, and 92 for Fri, Sat, and Sun for LAF. Heat wave #2 of the summer here get ready, get set... Still not seeing any signs that we're going to mix to 850 mb on Friday but I guess we will get a better handle on that as it gets closer. Either way, 90's look pretty likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Still not seeing any signs that we're going to mix to 850 mb on Friday but I guess we will get a better handle on that as it gets closer. Either way, 90's look pretty likely. I'd say so. Also, it's been a little too high in the extended most times, but 12z GFS throwing up a 80 (Fri), 81 (Sat), 79 (Sun), and 78 (Mon) for dewpoints for LAF. Sticky icky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Looks like another single day heat burst coming up, not bad. I wouldn't say that... Sat-Mon have a good chance of being in the low 90's too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 28, 2011 Author Share Posted June 28, 2011 Looks like another single day heat burst coming up, not bad. ? Skilling just said upper 90s Friday, but staying at or above 90 through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 I wouldn't say that... Sat-Mon have a good chance of being in the low 90's too. Looks quite possible. Not much cooling behind the front. Monday may be a little more questionable but that is a long way off. This is all contingent on not having MCSs screwing things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Looks quite possible. Not much cooling behind the front. Monday may be a little more questionable but that is a long way off. This is all contingent on not having MCSs screwing things up. Or saving the day, depending on your perspective. Regardless, a stifling 4th of July weekend upcoming with the heat/humidity combo here in LAF. Probably my least favorite weather of all. I'd go as far as saying that 33 and rain is more enjoyable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Wouldn't be surprised to see some healthy MCSs on Saturday and Sunday - definitely a very favorable pattern for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Or saving the day, depending on your perspective. Regardless, a stifling 4th of July weekend upcoming with the heat/humidity combo here in LAF. Probably my least favorite weather of all. I'd go as far as saying that 33 and rain is more enjoyable to me. 33 and rain? Say it ain't snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 I wouldn't say that... Sat-Mon have a good chance of being in the low 90's too. We'll see, but i won't be surprised if the same record that has been playing lately gets another spin, although the setup doesn't look all that muddy from a convective standpoint, it doesn't take much of a ripple to set off a noctunal mcs that screws everything up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 33 and rain? Say it ain't snow! Well done sir...well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Im not a good long range forecaster, pattern predicter. I have a fireworks show to put on July 3rd Sunday evening. What is the pattern looking like? Are we going to be hot and capped or is there the possiblity of storms? I doubt this pattern would lend itself to an all day rain type deal right? Maybe more scattered in nature? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Wouldn't be surprised to see some healthy MCSs on Saturday and Sunday - definitely a very favorable pattern for them. Agree, I actually like my chances here for something Friday night/Saturday Morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 FWIW... The Para NAM is actually one of the warmest, with 2M temps of +36-40C for Chicago on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 FWIW... The Para NAM is actually one of the warmest, with 2M temps of +36-40C for Chicago on Friday. Gag, that's just grossly unbearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 FWIW... The Para NAM is actually one of the warmest, with 2M temps of +36-40C for Chicago on Friday. Yeesh. Skilling has to be eating this up. What's he going with for Friday, upper 90's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Gag, that's just grossly unbearable. Combine that with the 2M dew points around 24C, and you're talking about a HI of 110F+. Of course were talking about something that's 3 days out and is at the end of the model run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Yeesh. Skilling has to be eating this up. What's he going with for Friday, upper 90's? He's going with 97F for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Combine that with the 2M dew points around 24C, and you're talking about a HI of 110F+. Of course were talking about something that's 3 days out and is at the end of the model run though. Yeah that's too much, I remember in July or August 06? there were a couple day's here in the Detroit area where it was something like 97/78. Just too warm, btw what are they calling for lows Thurs/Fri/Sat nights? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 FWIW... The Para NAM is actually one of the warmest, with 2M temps of +36-40C for Chicago on Friday. Are there any forecast soundings available for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 28, 2011 Author Share Posted June 28, 2011 LOT mentions the possibility of 100 degrees in the AFD. Didn't go quite the high in the grids, mostly upper 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 28, 2011 Author Share Posted June 28, 2011 LOT seems to be the only midwestern WFO appreciating the magnitude of this heat. Either that or the other offices are just regurgitating unrealistic model temperatures with no human value added. It was that model regurgitation that resulted in many places busting 5 or more degrees during the early June heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 28, 2011 Author Share Posted June 28, 2011 It is a difficult call much like early June. Probably will have a better feel tomorrow night. They weren't amped up enough with the intial early June impluse then were to flat with the bigger proceeding wave. Hopefully we don't have that mess again as we are in the heart of summer, though I wonder if the impulses are going to spin around the h5 out west, which could be troublesome for the models to handle. Generally, you would expect a intially wave then another wave like early June pushing another heat dome, then collapse back into a cooler pattern while at least some blocking resumes. It would be unsual for the heat to continue throughout July and into August. Agreed. I suspect after this heat wave ends, the heat dome will retrograde westward with searing heat into the four corners and all the way into Cali, Wash., and Ore. The east coast should stay fairly warm on the western periphery of a large ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic. The Great Lakes will see seasonable temps, as a slight trough moves in -- but it shouldn't be too cool as heights and H85 temps should remain near seasonal norms. However, clouds and showers could cause lower daytime highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 from LOT...can't remember the last time we had a shot at back to back days here at 100 degrees. AT THIS TIME...MAIN WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT ON FRIDAY. AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE...THIS UPPER HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO BUILD/EXPAND FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WARMING ALOFT IS REFLECTED BY INCREASED CAPPING OF CONVECTION ADVERTISED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS LESS AND LESS LIKELY THAT ENOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT ON FRIDAY TO AFFECT MAX TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION...A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PUNCH ACROSS IA AND INTO SRN WI/NRN IL ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SUPPORTS EXTENSION OF 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE EWD ACROSS THE FA...WITH GUIDANCE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING TEMPS OF 26 C OR GREATER ACROSS REGION. GIVEN THESE OPTIMUM CONDITIONS FOR REALIZING MAXIMUM HEATING...SUSPECT TESTBED FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY REMAIN A BIT TOO CONSERVATIVE...ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS PRONE TO DEVELOPING URBAN HEAT ISLANDS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE BUMPED UP FORECAST MAXES A BIT INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS FORECAST...GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED ARRIVAL OF WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SAG SWD ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL PERHAPS SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...GREATER DEW POINT POOLING (SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 70S) AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE FA...WITH LOW LEVEL DIURNAL MIXING PERHAPS LOWERING DEW POINTS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH COLD FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY...HAVE BUMPED UP FORECAST MAX'S FOR SATURDAY. DEW POINTS MAY ALSO NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT UPWARD ESPECIALLY IF POOLING OCCURS ALONG BOUNDARY DURING FRONTOLYSIS. RESULT IS THAT SATURDAY MAY ALSO HAVE HI'S OVER 100 AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS REGARDING HEAT HEADLINES. FOR NOW...FEEL VERY CONFIDENT THAT A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AS HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR EXCEED 105. IF LATER FORECASTS SUPPORT THESE CONDITIONS EXTENDING THROUGH SATURDAY...A HEAT WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Yeah that's too much, I remember in July or August 06? there were a couple day's here in the Detroit area where it was something like 97/78. Just too warm, btw what are they calling for lows Thurs/Fri/Sat nights? LOT is going with 71/75/71 for ORD and 71/81/70 downtown. Skilling has 74/76/72 for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 from LOT...can't remember the last time we had a shot at back to back days here at 100 degrees. AT THIS TIME...MAIN WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT ON FRIDAY. AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE...THIS UPPER HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO BUILD/EXPAND FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WARMING ALOFT IS REFLECTED BY INCREASED CAPPING OF CONVECTION ADVERTISED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS LESS AND LESS LIKELY THAT ENOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT ON FRIDAY TO AFFECT MAX TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION...A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PUNCH ACROSS IA AND INTO SRN WI/NRN IL ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SUPPORTS EXTENSION OF 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE EWD ACROSS THE FA...WITH GUIDANCE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING TEMPS OF 26 C OR GREATER ACROSS REGION. GIVEN THESE OPTIMUM CONDITIONS FOR REALIZING MAXIMUM HEATING...SUSPECT TESTBED FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY REMAIN A BIT TOO CONSERVATIVE...ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS PRONE TO DEVELOPING URBAN HEAT ISLANDS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE BUMPED UP FORECAST MAXES A BIT INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS FORECAST...GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED ARRIVAL OF WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SAG SWD ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL PERHAPS SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...GREATER DEW POINT POOLING (SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 70S) AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE FA...WITH LOW LEVEL DIURNAL MIXING PERHAPS LOWERING DEW POINTS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH COLD FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY...HAVE BUMPED UP FORECAST MAX'S FOR SATURDAY. DEW POINTS MAY ALSO NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT UPWARD ESPECIALLY IF POOLING OCCURS ALONG BOUNDARY DURING FRONTOLYSIS. RESULT IS THAT SATURDAY MAY ALSO HAVE HI'S OVER 100 AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS REGARDING HEAT HEADLINES. FOR NOW...FEEL VERY CONFIDENT THAT A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AS HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR EXCEED 105. IF LATER FORECASTS SUPPORT THESE CONDITIONS EXTENDING THROUGH SATURDAY...A HEAT WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. Well, they are talking about the heat index. I don't imagine it's super difficult to get 2 days in a row of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 It sounds silly but my range for Chicago on Friday is 94-103. 94 with the worst possible mixing depth and 103 if mixing to 850 mb is realized. Most likely outcome is probably somewhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 28, 2011 Author Share Posted June 28, 2011 from LOT...can't remember the last time we had a shot at back to back days here at 100 degrees. AT THIS TIME...MAIN WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT ON FRIDAY. AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE...THIS UPPER HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO BUILD/EXPAND FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WARMING ALOFT IS REFLECTED BY INCREASED CAPPING OF CONVECTION ADVERTISED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS LESS AND LESS LIKELY THAT ENOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT ON FRIDAY TO AFFECT MAX TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION...A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PUNCH ACROSS IA AND INTO SRN WI/NRN IL ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SUPPORTS EXTENSION OF 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE EWD ACROSS THE FA...WITH GUIDANCE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING TEMPS OF 26 C OR GREATER ACROSS REGION. GIVEN THESE OPTIMUM CONDITIONS FOR REALIZING MAXIMUM HEATING...SUSPECT TESTBED FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY REMAIN A BIT TOO CONSERVATIVE...ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS PRONE TO DEVELOPING URBAN HEAT ISLANDS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE BUMPED UP FORECAST MAXES A BIT INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS FORECAST...GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED ARRIVAL OF WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SAG SWD ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL PERHAPS SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...GREATER DEW POINT POOLING (SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 70S) AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE FA...WITH LOW LEVEL DIURNAL MIXING PERHAPS LOWERING DEW POINTS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH COLD FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY...HAVE BUMPED UP FORECAST MAX'S FOR SATURDAY. DEW POINTS MAY ALSO NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT UPWARD ESPECIALLY IF POOLING OCCURS ALONG BOUNDARY DURING FRONTOLYSIS. RESULT IS THAT SATURDAY MAY ALSO HAVE HI'S OVER 100 AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS REGARDING HEAT HEADLINES. FOR NOW...FEEL VERY CONFIDENT THAT A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AS HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR EXCEED 105. IF LATER FORECASTS SUPPORT THESE CONDITIONS EXTENDING THROUGH SATURDAY...A HEAT WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. That means heat indices, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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