wisconsinwx Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Can't imagine how packed all the beaches will be down there with temps near or over 100 just inland wed/thurs/fri Bring your camera. Lows will struggle to drop below 80 for us. Like CT Blizz says we better pray. Probably going to be blackouts. Stake your claim on the beach now. Stock up on as much beer, ice, water, AC's, and generators as you can. I think you're hyping this potential heat wave too much. If the current forecasts hold verbatim, MKE will not even exceed their average highs for this time of year once in the next week. The warmest forecast is 94 on Thursday, and Sunday and Tuesday might even stay in the 80s. Will it be hot? Yes. Will it be record-breaking heat? I don't think so based on MKX's current thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 My point forecast keeps getting better and better with the 90s delayed until Monday and just low 90s throughout the week. The afternoon shift yesterday dropped max/mins for the next 7 days for some reason, even though models have been consistent. Hell...the 0z ECMWF even came in warmer. I would expect them to be too cool with max/mins by a few degrees (possibly several degrees on a few days) through the 7-day period. At this point it looks like we should see 90F+ at ORD from this Sat through at least next Sat, with Mon/Wed-Fri all above 95. (ECMWF suggests Wed-Fri will be 100F+). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 NAM showing 95+ here on Monday, We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 The afternoon shift yesterday dropped max/mins for the next 7 days for some reason, even though models have been consistent. Hell...the 0z ECMWF even came in warmer. I would expect them to be too cool with max/mins by a few degrees (possibly several degrees on a few days) through the 7-day period. At this point it looks like we should see 90F+ at ORD from this Sat through at least next Sat, with Mon/Wed-Fri all above 95. (ECMWF suggests Wed-Fri will be 100F+). LM his 80 degrees at the Chicago beaches for a brief period last summer, not sure if we get there again, but that kind of prolonged heat might do it. Sitting around 70 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I think you're hyping this potential heat wave too much. If the current forecasts hold verbatim, MKE will not even exceed their average highs for this time of year once in the next week. The warmest forecast is 94 on Thursday, and Sunday and Tuesday might even stay in the 80s. Will it be hot? Yes. Will it be record-breaking heat? I don't think so based on MKX's current thinking. lol I'm just rip and reading the euro 2m temps with the added drama thrown in..0z Euro was the real deal especially just south of here.. 12z GFS looks pretty meh for the heatwave, well at least what storm vista's 2m temps are showing? Seems the bulk of the brutal stuff is back west some.. DP here would still be swampy so even if its not as extreme as the euro it will still be pretty uncomfortable. I very well could be reading the GFS wrong too lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 GFS advertised 2m temps are usually underdone. 12z GFS looks pretty meh for the heatwave, well at least what storm vista's 2m temps are showing? Seems the bulk of the brutal stuff is back west some.. DP here would still be swampy so even if its not as extreme as the euro it will still be pretty uncomfortable. I very well could be reading the GFS wrong too lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Ahhh, thanks, Kab Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 GFS advertised 2m temps are usually underdone. Yeah, they've been disgustingly underdone (5-10 F) for the Plains so far this summer, but that's at least partially thanks to the drought. Even though the GL aren't in a drought, the effect downstream is likely still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 LM his 80 degrees at the Chicago beaches for a brief period last summer, not sure if we get there again, but that kind of prolonged heat might do it. Sitting around 70 right now. It's possible. The seiche on Monday morning allowed for some upwelling and cooling, so we'll have to rebound from that first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 It's possible. The seiche on Monday morning allowed for some upwelling an cooling, so we'll have to rebound from that first. We need a Michigancane like that Huronicane a while back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I think you're hyping this potential heat wave too much. If the current forecasts hold verbatim, MKE will not even exceed their average highs for this time of year once in the next week. The warmest forecast is 94 on Thursday, and Sunday and Tuesday might even stay in the 80s. Will it be hot? Yes. Will it be record-breaking heat? I don't think so based on MKX's current thinking. Generally speaking, a WFO would like to play it conservatively that far out (since a poorly timed OFB could slash a max temp forecast pretty quickly). So you are unlikely to see records in the forecast until you are a day or two out because they are so rare. However, the AFD will give some insight as to whether they think the bust potential is on the high or low side of that number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 The afternoon shift yesterday dropped max/mins for the next 7 days for some reason, even though models have been consistent. Hell...the 0z ECMWF even came in warmer. I would expect them to be too cool with max/mins by a few degrees (possibly several degrees on a few days) through the 7-day period. At this point it looks like we should see 90F+ at ORD from this Sat through at least next Sat, with Mon/Wed-Fri all above 95. (ECMWF suggests Wed-Fri will be 100F+). Today is a prime example of them being too cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Today is a prime example of them being too cool. What were they calling for earlier? O'hare's point and click forecasted 84 and they are at 85 now and that will probably hold steady with the east wind.. Just a one or two degree difference no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 What were they calling for earlier? O'hare's point and click forecasted 84 and they are at 85 now and that will probably hold steady with the east wind.. Just a one degree difference no? Though not always reliable/precise, the original point-and-click forecast was 83 both for here and at ORD. It hit 87 here and 86 with a possible intra-hour 87 at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Though not always reliable/precise, the original point-and-click forecast was 83 both for here and at ORD. It hit 87 here and 86 with a possible intra-hour 87 at ORD. Oh ok I see, cool. Yeah its going to be interesting to see if LOT's usually conservative ways workout for them with this heatwave. Though like Ocean said above they are probably just playing it safe until we get closer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 lol I'm just rip and reading the euro 2m temps with the added drama thrown in..0z Euro was the real deal especially just south of here.. 12z GFS looks pretty meh for the heatwave, well at least what storm vista's 2m temps are showing? Seems the bulk of the brutal stuff is back west some.. DP here would still be swampy so even if its not as extreme as the euro it will still be pretty uncomfortable. I very well could be reading the GFS wrong too lol. I agree, the DP's will be the big problem across many areas. Record breaking temps no, but heat indices of 110+ across a massive swatch of landscape will do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I agree, the DP's will be the big problem across many areas. Record breaking temps no, but heat indices of 110+ across a massive swatch of landscape will do it. It also takes longer to heat moist air than dry, so another check mark against seeing widespread record heat. Though that's not going to make it feel any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 It also takes longer to heat moist air than dry, so another check mark against seeing widespread record heat. Though that's not going to make it feel any better. Yeah I think everyone is getting caught up in the 2m temps alone and not realizing the extremity of the heat index and progged dew points. It is going to be atrocious across many areas for a prolonged period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Yeah I think everyone is getting caught up in the 2m temps alone and not realizing the extremity of the heat index and progged dew points. It is going to be atrocious across many areas for a prolonged period. Heart of the growing season for corn too, lots of evapotranspiration going on with soil moisture being what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Give me some Las Vegas 110 to 115 heat all day over this BS HI of 110 in the MW. I fooking love the desert heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted July 15, 2011 Author Share Posted July 15, 2011 With the big heat wave coming in, it's looking like this could wind up being a historically hot July in parts of northern Ohio. Just for fun, I plugged in the TWC forecast values for KTOL, KCLE, and KMFD (which are in line with other forecasts I've seen), which gets us out to July 24. If those forecast values verify, TOL would be at 78.4, CLE at 77.3, and MFD at 76.1. At TOL, the only hotter Julys are 1921 and 1916, at CLE 1955 and 1949, and at MFD 1934, 1921, and 1955. Those records all may be high too, as none of them were taken at the airports except the two at CLE (but the temperature sensor was on the rooftop of a building during that time, which adds a warm bias). Looking at the current departure map and given the worst is yet to come, I expect this to be a top three hottest July. The top two currently are 1936 and 2006, don't know if we can eclipse them, but it should be close given how expansive the hot temperature anomalies are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Give me some Las Vegas 110 to 115 heat all day over this BS HI of 110 in the MW. I fooking love the desert heat. Yes, agreed. I got pampered in Utah when it was 97/30 during the summer every day. Still hot, but not disgusting hot like 90/75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 For those of you who have been glancing at the new NAM 4 km which will unveil in August with the new operational NAM, RYan Maue also added 2 m temp maps, once again in hourly chunks to 36 hrs then in three hr chunks after. He added a CONUS as well as a number of regional zooms. The 4KM NAM has been very solid regarding convection lately and has absolutely wiped the floor clean with the operational NAM. May be worth glancing at to see how it performs in 2m temps. CONUS: http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/nam/nam_t2m_conus.html Great Lakes: http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/nam/nam_t2m_mich.html Texas: http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/nam/nam_t2m_tx.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 For those of you who have been glancing at the new NAM 4 km which will unveil in August with the new operational NAM, RYan Maue also added 2 m temp maps, once again in hourly chunks to 36 hrs then in three hr chunks after. He added a CONUS as well as a number of regional zooms. The 4KM NAM has been very solid regarding convection lately and has absolutely wiped the floor clean with the operational NAM. May be worth glancing at to see how it performs in 2m temps. CONUS: http://coaps.fsu.edu..._t2m_conus.html Great Lakes: http://coaps.fsu.edu...m_t2m_mich.html Texas: http://coaps.fsu.edu...nam_t2m_tx.html Awesome. Shows low-mid 90's across MI on Sunday. The new NAM has impressed thus far...we'll see how it does with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 loving the colorful mess that is the mpx fa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted July 15, 2011 Author Share Posted July 15, 2011 loving the colorful mess that is the mpx fa The Flash Flood Warnings blend right into the Excessive Heat Watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 loving the colorful mess that is the mpx fa LOL, that is pretty colorful, no doubt. I can only imagine how much that could confuse the general public. I know all the colors, but I have to look at it for a while to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 For those of you who have been glancing at the new NAM 4 km which will unveil in August with the new operational NAM, RYan Maue also added 2 m temp maps, once again in hourly chunks to 36 hrs then in three hr chunks after. He added a CONUS as well as a number of regional zooms. The 4KM NAM has been very solid regarding convection lately and has absolutely wiped the floor clean with the operational NAM. May be worth glancing at to see how it performs in 2m temps. CONUS: http://coaps.fsu.edu..._t2m_conus.html Great Lakes: http://coaps.fsu.edu...m_t2m_mich.html Texas: http://coaps.fsu.edu...nam_t2m_tx.html Wow, those maps are awesome. Very nice. DVN has the QCA generally in the mid 90s starting Sunday through pretty much all of next week. Probably see heat index values over 105 many of those days. The longevity of this heatwave is what's impressive to me. The last several years have featured some very hot days, but they usually only occurred in one or two day stints before a cooloff. We may not see very many days above 95 with this, but the fact that the heat will be pretty much relentless for a week is pretty big news for around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 does anyone happen to have the main link to the new 4km NAM that baro put up in one of the threads awhile back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted July 15, 2011 Author Share Posted July 15, 2011 CPC going with a 90+% chance of above normal in the 6-10 day timeframe and 80+% in the 8-14 day timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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