July 2011 general discussion/obs thread

[TimChgo9]

Just heard..not from a meteorological source, but from a family member who just heard that we are in for a 14-18 day heat wave. They are citing temps of low 100's by next Wednesday through next Sunday, and then upper 90's every day after that, until about Aug 2nd or so. States that he read it on FB.... Skilling isn't saying that near as I can tell. And, I haven't heard that here either...

I am figuring at least a week baking in the heat... That's about all I'll be able to take.

I hate it when it's hot...

[Trent]

Just out of curiosity, what's the record in Detroit for longest streak of 80+ degree days?

[BowMeHunter]

Just heard..not from a meteorological source, but from a family member who just heard that we are in for a 14-18 day heat wave. They are citing temps of low 100's by next Wednesday through next Sunday, and then upper 90's every day after that, until about Aug 2nd or so. States that he read it on FB.... Skilling isn't saying that near as I can tell. And, I haven't heard that here either...

I am figuring at least a week baking in the heat... That's about all I'll be able to take.

I hate it when it's hot...

Euro has been showing a cool down to more normal like temps next weekend.. Then we wait to see when the ridge out west wants to plop a swamp arse on us again.

Not sure what the GFS shows.

[Hoosier]

Just heard..not from a meteorological source, but from a family member who just heard that we are in for a 14-18 day heat wave. They are citing temps of low 100's by next Wednesday through next Sunday, and then upper 90's every day after that, until about Aug 2nd or so. States that he read it on FB.... Skilling isn't saying that near as I can tell. And, I haven't heard that here either...

I am figuring at least a week baking in the heat... That's about all I'll be able to take.

I hate it when it's hot...

I could see Chicago possibly approaching 100 for a day or 2, but probably after Wednesday. Mid-upper 90's seem to be almost a lock.

[cyclone77]

On this date back in 1936 the QC hit their all time record of 111. Can't imagine seeing heat like that around here. I think the hottest temp I've ever seen around this area was 104 back in the scorching summer of '88.

Another perfect day here today. Low 80s and low humidity.

[TimChgo9]

Yeah, I don't think that is right. That would be historically abnormal. I don't think even the dustbowl era had that for Chicago(though it did in west central ohio, bizzare eh?). More likely a longer, more intense wave than usual. I could see at tops, a late July/first half of August style wave like 1988(if the cooldown doesn't manifest strongly by next weekend). More likely a 1955 style heatwave of 5-7 days.

I didn't think it sounded right either... If that were going to be the case, Skilling would have been talking about it. I have a family member that likes to embellish when he gets information. Claims he read it on a meteorologists' FB page... won't tell me which one though.

[Trent]

On this date back in 1936 the QC hit their all time record of 111. Can't imagine seeing heat like that around here. I think the hottest temp I've ever seen around this area was 104 back in the scorching summer of '88.

Another perfect day here today. Low 80s and low humidity.

When I see stories of the record highs in Oklahoma City this month, it baffles me. I had always assumed that the Great Plains Cities would have record highs in the mid to upper 110s.

I grew up in the middle of Michigan and it rarely ever cracked the mid 90's, but I always knew that the record high for Saginaw was 111 on July 13th, 1936 and the record for the state was 112 in Mio, in northern Michigan no less, on that same day. I had always assumed that if the record highs for locales that far north in the Great Lakes were over 110, that those in the Souther Plains would be so much hotter.

Considering that they were indeed warmer than those in many places in the south, it really puts into perspective how extreme those 110+ degree temps were in Central and Northern Michigan in July 1936. I can't even fathom that today, 7 straight days in central Michigan of 100+ degree heat, with a day at 111? Absolutely insane.

[OHSnow]

Should be a good year for lake effect, judging by the lake temps. Belle Isle was at 75, Toledo 76, Erie 77, and Buffalo 74. The sensor at Cleveland must be broken, because it had been reporting much lower than all of the other sites and now is listed as unavailable. Only Buffalo has a list of averages and records dating to 1927 -- the average is 70 for the date, and the record there 76 set in 1987 and 1993. Looking at the forecast heat and humidity over the next week to ten days, we could see lake temps approach record highs.

[River Card]

Should be a good year for lake effect, judging by the lake temps. Belle Isle was at 75, Toledo 76, Erie 77, and Buffalo 74. The sensor at Cleveland must be broken, because it had been reporting much lower than all of the other sites and now is listed as unavailable. Only Buffalo has a list of averages and records dating to 1927 -- the average is 70 for the date, and the record there 76 set in 1987 and 1993. Looking at the forecast heat and humidity over the next week to ten days, we could see lake temps approach record highs.

Good certain that that would squash any possible early biggie storms in nov.. may have to put the blacklight away from them tightie whities till Dec....

[SpartyOn]

Watching closely for possible severe on Monday around lower Mi. As that back door cool front tries so hard to scoot south west into this massive dome of heat. Gonna be fun to watch.

[SpartyOn]

After this heat wave August wont be far off!! WOW wont be long until we get those first modified artic fronts and feel that cool crisp Canadian air. But for now Im enjoying every second of this hot ass Summer and looking forward to my vacation in Northern MI and the UP.

[RobertSul]

Yeah, if I have to give up on near-record high temperatures, I'd like for there to be a decent thunderstorm with lots of wind-blown rain and intense lightning.

Watching closely for possible severe on Monday around lower Mi. As that back door cool front tries so hard to scoot south west into this massive dome of heat. Gonna be fun to watch.

[LizardMafia]

Well ChicagoWX better enjoy Friday, because the oven is on it way..

[SEMIweather]

Yeah, if I have to give up on near-record high temperatures, I'd like for there to be a decent thunderstorm with lots of wind-blown rain and intense lightning.

I'm thinking next week looks very interesting for both severe weather and record highs.

[Chicago Storm]

Thursday, July 14th:

Hi: 84F

Lo: 59F

Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy

Max Wind Gust: 8MPH

Rainfall: 0.00"

[Chicago Storm]

Spent the day downtown and along the lake, where it was a nice day with temps in the mid-70's.

[Chicago Storm]

Since ORD will not hit 90 tomorrow, I thought I would throw up updated 90F+ stats through the 15th before the upcoming heat wave...

[Hoosier]

Should be a good year for lake effect, judging by the lake temps. Belle Isle was at 75, Toledo 76, Erie 77, and Buffalo 74. The sensor at Cleveland must be broken, because it had been reporting much lower than all of the other sites and now is listed as unavailable. Only Buffalo has a list of averages and records dating to 1927 -- the average is 70 for the date, and the record there 76 set in 1987 and 1993. Looking at the forecast heat and humidity over the next week to ten days, we could see lake temps approach record highs.

Just hope there aren't some poorly timed cool snaps before winter...

[Hoosier]

When I see stories of the record highs in Oklahoma City this month, it baffles me. I had always assumed that the Great Plains Cities would have record highs in the mid to upper 110s.

I grew up in the middle of Michigan and it rarely ever cracked the mid 90's, but I always knew that the record high for Saginaw was 111 on July 13th, 1936 and the record for the state was 112 in Mio, in northern Michigan no less, on that same day. I had always assumed that if the record highs for locales that far north in the Great Lakes were over 110, that those in the Souther Plains would be so much hotter.

Considering that they were indeed warmer than those in many places in the south, it really puts into perspective how extreme those 110+ degree temps were in Central and Northern Michigan in July 1936. I can't even fathom that today, 7 straight days in central Michigan of 100+ degree heat, with a day at 111? Absolutely insane.

If I had to pick a record that is least likely to be broken in my lifetime, it's those extreme heat ones from the 1930's. Getting the proper meteorological setup is only part of the battle...the poor farming practices/less vegetation back then no doubt enhanced the heat.

[Ed Lizard]

Hail reported in HGX area, which is impressive. I love a sounding with 2 1/2" PW and the tropopause over 15 km high.

Summer has finally arrived.

[kab2791]

It's possible we may have 7 days in a row of 90+ temps per GFS (assuming we can make it to 90 on Tue bearing potential cloud debris from morning MCS activity, though those details are very unclear.)

[snowmanwx]

When I see stories of the record highs in Oklahoma City this month, it baffles me. I had always assumed that the Great Plains Cities would have record highs in the mid to upper 110s.

I grew up in the middle of Michigan and it rarely ever cracked the mid 90's, but I always knew that the record high for Saginaw was 111 on July 13th, 1936 and the record for the state was 112 in Mio, in northern Michigan no less, on that same day. I had always assumed that if the record highs for locales that far north in the Great Lakes were over 110, that those in the Souther Plains would be so much hotter.

Considering that they were indeed warmer than those in many places in the south, it really puts into perspective how extreme those 110+ degree temps were in Central and Northern Michigan in July 1936. I can't even fathom that today, 7 straight days in central Michigan of 100+ degree heat, with a day at 111? Absolutely insane.

The records for Oklahoma City have some issues. In the early 20th century, monthly maxima typically ranked among the lowest of any station in the state (at least outside the Panhandle). This discrepancy resulted from several factors. Despite its location along the North Canadian River, Oklahoma City lies on a ridge a couple hundred feet above Guthrie and even a hundred feet above Norman; the weather station at 1923 North Classen Boulevard (operated 1906-1953) sat near the highest elevation then in the City. Only Enid, Waukomis, Marlow, and Fort Reno had higher elevations among weather stations measuring temperature in August 1936 in central Oklahoma, and only Fort Reno posted an elevation more than 40 feet higher than that of Oklahoma City.

Moreover, take a look at the instrument shelter in 1934:

The observation height at Oklahoma City WBO was significantly higher than the standard 2 meters (4 feet) typical of cooperative stations. Note the staircase that the observer climbed to access the instruments. This elevation kept the station above the superadiabatic layer associated with the baking surface in the searing summers of the 1930s. By then, this location lay in an established neighborhood with trees (see photograph) and some irrigated lawns. These factors kept the station from experiencing locally the extremes associated with denuded soils common elsewhere in the state.

These and other factors combined to make this stark statistic: in August 1936, the month wherein Oklahoma City set its all-time record of 113°F (at 1923 North Classen Boulevard, not at KOKC airport), 85 stations measured temperature in Oklahoma. Among them, only Boise City, Kenton, Hooker, Goodwell, Arnett, Hammon, Oakwood, and Wichita National Forest recorded temperatures that failed to reach 113°F all month. The first four lie in the Panhandle; the remaining four all lie in western Oklahoma at significantly higher elevations than Oklahoma City.

During August 1936, Norman posted its all-time record high temperature of 116°F and an average high temperature 3.0 F° greater than that observed at Oklahoma City; overnight lows, to balance the warmer days, measured 3 F° cooler at Norman. But remember, the entire area has witnessed considerable urbanization since 1936, resulting in the development of an urban heat island in Oklahoma City not often observed at the airport.

[brettjrob]

Great info. I wasn't aware of those issues regarding the pre-airport OKC records. If Norman, normally a local cool spot, truly reached 116 F, that does strongly suggest OKC would have been warmer had the temperature been measured where and how it is today.

On the other hand, Trent's perception of the extreme heat potential here might simply be a bit overboard, too. There seems to be a common misconception that lower latitude equates to warmer all-time record high temperatures, but that is not really the case, in general and within the CONUS. Local land surface properties and topography are huge factors, among other things. Plus, when you get these monster ridges like the one building in right now, you often see the hottest temperatures on the north side; those on the south side of the dome are left in deep-layer easterlies, which are often humid but not as hot. I imagine there will be days coming up in which SD posts higher extremes than OK or TX because of this. Even on the east coast, I recall often watching inland sections of New England exceed 100 F on the hottest day of the year, while way down south inland from DC we couldn't hit triple digits to save our life.

EDIT: From http://en.wikipedia....rature_extremes:

TX 120 F

OK 120 F

KS 121 F

NE 118 F

SD 120 F

ND 121 F

[Central Illinois]

I had a high of 82 today.....Heat Wave starts saturday

[BowMeHunter]

Balls stuck to everything heat wave on the Euro... Naso much of a cool down for the weekend this run.. Just an enforcing shot of heat lurking to the west.. Landscape is going to be browner than Frank The Tanks Undies whenever this heat wave breaks.. Maybe that dude on Tim's facebook knows something. Or maybe its just the euro continuing to be its flippy floppy useless weenie in the mid to long range this summer.

[A-L-E-K]

My point forecast keeps getting better and better with the 90s delayed until Monday and just low 90s throughout the week.

[Chicago WX]

Well ChicagoWX better enjoy Friday, because the oven is on it way..

I'm going into hibernation. See you all in October.

[Trent]

Just hope there aren't some poorly timed cool snaps before winter...

Yep. Look at last winter, which was preceded by a top 5 warmest summer with warm lake temps well above average. That gave way to a cooler fall and below average lake temps by the start of winter. October-November weather will be the major determining factor.

[BowMeHunter]

My point forecast keeps getting better and better with the 90s delayed until Monday and just low 90s throughout the week.

Can't imagine how packed all the beaches will be down there with temps near or over 100 just inland wed/thurs/fri Bring your camera.

Lows will struggle to drop below 80 for us. Like CT Blizz says we better pray. Probably going to be blackouts. Stake your claim on the beach now. Stock up on as much beer, ice, water, AC's, and generators as you can.

[OHSnow]

The records for Oklahoma City have some issues. In the early 20th century, monthly maxima typically ranked among the lowest of any station in the state (at least outside the Panhandle). This discrepancy resulted from several factors. Despite its location along the North Canadian River, Oklahoma City lies on a ridge a couple hundred feet above Guthrie and even a hundred feet above Norman; the weather station at 1923 North Classen Boulevard (operated 1906-1953) sat near the highest elevation then in the City. Only Enid, Waukomis, Marlow, and Fort Reno had higher elevations among weather stations measuring temperature in August 1936 in central Oklahoma, and only Fort Reno posted an elevation more than 40 feet higher than that of Oklahoma City.

Moreover, take a look at the instrument shelter in 1934:

The observation height at Oklahoma City WBO was significantly higher than the standard 2 meters (4 feet) typical of cooperative stations. Note the staircase that the observer climbed to access the instruments. This elevation kept the station above the superadiabatic layer associated with the baking surface in the searing summers of the 1930s. By then, this location lay in an established neighborhood with trees (see photograph) and some irrigated lawns. These factors kept the station from experiencing locally the extremes associated with denuded soils common elsewhere in the state.

These and other factors combined to make this stark statistic: in August 1936, the month wherein Oklahoma City set its all-time record of 113°F (at 1923 North Classen Boulevard, not at KOKC airport), 85 stations measured temperature in Oklahoma. Among them, only Boise City, Kenton, Hooker, Goodwell, Arnett, Hammon, Oakwood, and Wichita National Forest recorded temperatures that failed to reach 113°F all month. The first four lie in the Panhandle; the remaining four all lie in western Oklahoma at significantly higher elevations than Oklahoma City.

During August 1936, Norman posted its all-time record high temperature of 116°F and an average high temperature 3.0 F° greater than that observed at Oklahoma City; overnight lows, to balance the warmer days, measured 3 F° cooler at Norman. But remember, the entire area has witnessed considerable urbanization since 1936, resulting in the development of an urban heat island in Oklahoma City not often observed at the airport.

2 meters is 7 feet, not 4 feet. Most Co-op stations are too low to the ground, not too high -- especially back then. Some of them were only like a foot off the ground.