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July 2011 general discussion/obs thread


OHSnow

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I wonder what the odds of KIND or KLAF breaking 100 are? I cant remember the last time I expeirenced that kind of heat. It may be as far back as 1995 but Im not for sure.

I think IND hasn't hit 100 since 1988. This airmass at this point doesn't look quite warm enough to do it.

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Wow... I just checked the 15-day Accuweather forecast for Swanton, OH (where KTOL is located). Shows 12 straight days of 90+, many well into the 90s. If this comes true, it would probably be the hottest July on record.

82/61

83/62

87/66

97/70

96/71

93/69

97/74

97/72

96/73

96/73

95/73

91/65

93/70

94/68

http://www.accuweather.com/us/oh/swanton/43558/forecast-month.asp

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It will be interesting to see where this month ranks for the United States as a whole... it should be close to a record. Here are the hottest Julys on record in the contiguous States:

1936 77.4

2006 77.3

1934 77.0

1901 76.9

2002 76.6

1980 76.5

1931 76.3

1998 76.3

2003 76.2

1954 76.1

Normal is 74.3.

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12 more days and the AVG High temp starts its downward trend and I can already start to notice the ever small shortening of the days.

Looking forward to see if we can join LAF later next week and tap 100+ I think it will be dam close especially if we go with no rain before the epic torch.

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Absolutely stunning day today weatherwise. 81 with full sun, no haze, nice breeze, and no bugs.

I think we have a good shot at 100 here at some point next week. Very impressive heights and associated mid-level temps. We've been relatively dry around here over the last month or so, so the lack of wet soils should help. It's been since 2006 when we last officially (MLI) tagged 100.

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This day Back in 1995 it was 104 degrees when the Brewers and White Sox took the field at County stadium.. According to B-Ref, the 104 game-time temp was tied for the 19th hottest recorded in major league history.

In reference to this thread, I just looked back at that '95 heat wave. Apparently at least one recording station in Wisconsin hit a HI (Heat Index) of 130. I wish I could imagine that kind of heat so I could prepare for it if needed, but no thanks!

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In reference to this thread, I just looked back at that '95 heat wave. Apparently at least one recording station in Wisconsin hit a HI (Heat Index) of 130. I wish I could imagine that kind of heat so I could prepare for it if needed, but no thanks!

So about 105/81 F. That is pure awful, i'd like to know what site had that reading.

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In reference to this thread, I just looked back at that '95 heat wave. Apparently at least one recording station in Wisconsin hit a HI (Heat Index) of 130. I wish I could imagine that kind of heat so I could prepare for it if needed, but no thanks!

Looks like MKE hit 128 HI?

July13MKEHeatGraph.gif

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Going by the 0z Euro, next Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will be the hottest stretch (peak heat) here. Probably our best chance at cracking the century mark if we believe it to be correct. Before that it's certainly toasty, but the main slug would be centered to the west of here. Relief by next Saturday (23rd)...at the end of fantasy land. We'll see.

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Really hoping I can narrowly avoid yet another heat wave but convective chances look weaker than previous scenarios, so i think this is my first shot of the year at b2b 90s.

Yeah, I am starting to think there is a chance we crack 100 in many locations next week maybe twice.

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If current trends hold, it's rather likely at least a few locations in the GL states will reach/exceed 100 (Thurs/Fri is probably the best shot per current model runs), including WI/MI/IL/IN/OH. This is assuming we can mix down outputted mid 20s T850s.

In SE Michigan or the general GL area?

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Going by the 0z Euro, next Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will be the hottest stretch (peak heat) here. Probably our best chance at cracking the century mark if we believe it to be correct. Before that it's certainly toasty, but the main slug would be centered to the west of here. Relief by next Saturday (23rd)...at the end of fantasy land. We'll see.

There's a shot if we can tap into the 24-25C at 850 mb. Otherwise I think 90's are more likely, albeit upper 90's.

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:sizzle:

KORD reported on 14-JUL-2011
KORD   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   7/14/2011  1200 UTC
FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192
    FRI 15| SAT 16| SUN 17| MON 18| TUE 19| WED 20| THU 21|FRI CLIMO
N/X  62  82| 65  87| 70  92| 75  93| 76  93| 74  95| 74  94| 72 63 84
TMP  66  76| 69  80| 74  87| 78  87| 79  88| 78  89| 77  88| 75
DPT  61  62| 65  64| 70  71| 73  73| 74  73| 72  73| 71  70| 69
WND   7   8|  7   7|  6   9|  8  10|  8   9|  8  12| 10  10|  9
P12  12   8|  8  13| 15   7| 19  14| 24  17| 17  19| 31  22| 26 22 18
P24      13|     15|     17|     27|     30|     31|     45|       33
Q12   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|       |
Q24       0|      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |
T12   5   4|  6  12| 12  11| 24  26| 21  29| 22  18| 15  22| 17
T24        |  7    | 23    | 25    | 36    | 40    | 41    | 34

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:sizzle:

KORD reported on 14-JUL-2011
KORD   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   7/14/2011  1200 UTC
FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192
    FRI 15| SAT 16| SUN 17| MON 18| TUE 19| WED 20| THU 21|FRI CLIMO
N/X  62  82| 65  87| 70  92| 75  93| 76  93| 74  95| 74  94| 72 63 84
TMP  66  76| 69  80| 74  87| 78  87| 79  88| 78  89| 77  88| 75
DPT  61  62| 65  64| 70  71| 73  73| 74  73| 72  73| 71  70| 69
WND   7   8|  7   7|  6   9|  8  10|  8   9|  8  12| 10  10|  9
P12  12   8|  8  13| 15   7| 19  14| 24  17| 17  19| 31  22| 26 22 18
P24      13|     15|     17|     27|     30|     31|     45|       33
Q12   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|       |
Q24       0|      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |
T12   5   4|  6  12| 12  11| 24  26| 21  29| 22  18| 15  22| 17
T24        |  7    | 23    | 25    | 36    | 40    | 41    | 34

Certainly a strong heat signal when climo biased MOS is showing 10 above normal 5-7 days out.

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We're not the only ones sweltering... the Russian meteorological service is forecasting "unprecedented" heat in Moscow with high temperatures between 31 and 33 degrees Celsius, or some 7 or 8 degrees Celsius above normal for the next two weeks.

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FWIW, 12Z Euro shows max temps of 100 over most of IL and IN, and parts of WI and MI on Thurs, with some of the same locales spiking 100F on Fri.

+28 C over east central Iowa on Thursday afternoon. Count me as rooting for the convective debris, otherwise that is supportive of mid 100s if it mixes completely. Only one way to combat that...:drunk:

Also with 850 temps still hovering around +26 C overnight, you can knock off a few degrees for lows (a general rule of thumb for ideal cooling conditions). That conservatively puts lows in the mid 70s. Did I mention I don't like heat?

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