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July 2011 general discussion/obs thread


OHSnow

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DTX going with 100s for the general area next week..:devilsmiley:

Nope:

DTX

TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE

THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE FURTHER BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS

DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DRAW ON A SUBSTANTIAL UPSTREAM POOL

OF H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S C AND SURFACE TEMPS IN THE

UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S OVER THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY...SO WENT

AHEAD AND TRENDED TEMPERATURES UPWARD A FEW DEGREES TOWARD THE END

OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WAS THE PRIMARY CHANGE FOR THIS

ISSUANCE

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Nope:

DTX

Yeah, most offices in the Great Lakes seem to be downplaying the potential, at least on their grids, generally going with low 90s. Maybe that's more in line with the rest of guidance, or maybe they're just being conservative. I will say that if next weeks highs are in the low 90s, that is not a heat wave, as that is generally 5 to maybe close to 10 degrees above normal, but nothing way out of character for mid July. If we're talking upper 90s to 100, then you can call it a heat wave.

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Wonder with this ramp of heat and drier weather if this isn't the makings of another nina possibly? I can certainly see this warmer and drier pattern running well through fall possibly even into winter for some areas. The monthly euro really likes the idea of a toasty and dry fall. Another nina..wow that would be something, could be some fun times this winter.

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Wonder with this ramp of heat and drier weather if this isn't the makings of another nina possibly? I can certainly see this warmer and drier pattern running well through fall possibly even into winter for some areas. The monthly euro really likes the idea of a toasty and dry fall. Another nina..wow that would be something, could be some fun times this winter.

Nina, or at least the cold side of neutral is favored this winter just based on past history. Not too many examples of a Nina as strong as last winter becoming a Nino the following winter.

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Not looking forward to the heat wave.... GFS made me cry... No relief until the 25th of the month?

Hopefully that's not right.

And then it's back to it by the 28th.

I can't wait until October.... seriously.

Hopefully we can get a nice and cool August as a reward for this more than likely to be miserably hot July.. Wouldn't mind a few Tropical remnants either just to keep things interesting.

Beautiful day today though, only made it to up 74 a O'harethumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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GFS has a bit of a high dewpoint bias, especially in the extended...well as far as my local research is involved anyway. Granted it's going to be sticky...and hot, but I doubt we'll be seeing days and days of 85º dewpoints.

At least I hope not. ;)

Multiple days of low 80 or at least near 80 degree dews appear likely, but mid 80's are really tough to get unless you're right in the center of a corn field.

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Multiple days of low 80 or at least near 80 degree dews appear likely, but mid 80's are really tough to get unless you're right in the center of a corn field.

Well yeah it's going to be hot and humid, but my point remains that the GFS overdoes dewpoints in the extended (post 168 hours). I've seen it many times when looking at the LAF numbers.

Regardless, the heat being shown by the models is something else. Been a long time since we've seen the intensity and longevity up here. Chad wins. :(

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Well yeah it's going to be hot and humid, but my point remains that the GFS overdoes dewpoints in the extended (post 168 hours). I've seen it many times when looking at the LAF numbers.

Regardless, the heat being shown by the models is something else. Been a long time since we've seen the intensity and longevity up here. Chad wins. :(

It'd be something if our summer departure ends up even within a few degrees of his outlandish call.

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It'd be something if our summer departure ends up even within a few degrees of his outlandish call.

Well the departures for LAF are all messed up, so who really knows? Using the WL COOP for normals (cold biased, especially with nighttime lows) and LAF for the actual numbers is a bad mix. Probably going to have just judge it off the overall JJA avg temp. Who knows, maybe we will get to 80? :axe: June was fairly tame, but July looks like it'll have a big number. It'll all come to down August me thinks.

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I really don't see how you will get really high dewpoints with that kind of ridge. I would think it would suck most of the moisture out of the air.

If mixing isn't strong/deep, it's not gonna be difficult to realize high dewpoints.

Especially with the evapotranspiration at this time of year.

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Just look up a old winter storm thread, or past reanalysis. Heck, I like looking at old maps of the January 1918 blizzard lol.

Lots of AC...and pool time when it allows. :) I'm just not a fan. I really feel bad for the people who have to work outside in the extreme heat/humidity. My dad worked outside (construction) for 35+ years. I saw what 1988 did to the man. It wasn't pretty.

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Hows the Euro look for your area :P

Jk... Enjoy your upcoming heat.

lol, even the EURO's decent.

I certainly will. This looks to be the most persistent heat ridge we've had in this region of the country for a while now (most of them lately have been too passive for my liking).

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