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July 2011 general discussion/obs thread


OHSnow

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Summer

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Beau,

Is this suggesting a drier pattern as well? Lawn has turned really brown, and the heat was intense in STL the past 2 days...wow, just got back from there and the himidity together I swear breathing was a chore. Crap with all that rain they have had basically all spring and summer, the humidity was crazy. Also Missisppii river raging very high and fast!

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Going to enjoy the 2-3 day break in heat and humidity here. Then I'm stocking up on baby powder for the next onslaught. Really looking forward to October...

I've got a few beach/bbq events coming up the next few weeks, then i'm switching to fall mode as well.

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GFS has most of us 80f+ surface DPs some country places between STL and Chicago cracking 85F unreal.

with highs in the upper 90s to 100F.

If not higher given the expansive ridge that forms literally over STL in one day. BOOM!

GFS has a bit of a high dewpoint bias, especially in the extended...well as far as my local research is involved anyway. Granted it's going to be sticky...and hot, but I doubt we'll be seeing days and days of 85º dewpoints.

At least I hope not. ;)

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2 ahead of the pace at LAF this year when compared to last year with respect to 90º+ days.

2010: 9

2011: 11

70º+ dewpoint days still lagging a bit though.

2010: 28

2011: 22

Side note: Only seven days last July didn't have a 70º+ dewpoint.

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Euro is pretty silly hot. Could have 6 or 7 days in a row of upper 90's and 100's in WI.

The irony is I'm rooting for the Euro to be right b/c it sounds like it's the only model that keeps the baroclinic zone in our area but slightly delays the heat. Regardless of any delay, it sounds like this potential heat wave will be for REAL!

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Sunday, July 10th:

Hi: 91F

Lo: 71F

Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy

Max Wind Gust: 13MPH

Rainfall: Trace

Monday, July 11th:

Hi: 88F

Lo: 71F

Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy

Max Wind Gust: 60MPH

Rainfall: 0.43"

Tuesday, July 12th:

Hi: 88F

Lo: 68F

Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy

Max Wind Gust: 12MPH

Rainfall: 0.01"

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LOT mentioning possible excessive heat warnings for next week...

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT MORE

SUNDAY WITH H85 READINGS OF 20-22 C STILL EXPECTED. LOW TO MID 90S

ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF

ADVERTISING H85 TEMPS WARMING A FEW MORE DEGREES BY TUESDAY WITH THE

12Z GFS NOW SHOWING SIMILAR. MID 70S DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE AND

WITH THE INCREASED TEMPS HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE 105-110

RANGE FOR MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS

WITH POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS DUE TO THE PROLONGED

DURATION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH WITH A

LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO

ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WOULD HELP COOL LAKESHORE

AREAS...AT LEAST SLIGHTLY. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY BUT CONVECTIVE

CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO. THE AREA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE

HOTTEST AIR AND DO EXPECT IT TO BE CAPPED BUT TRAJECTORY OF MID AND

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WOULD SUPPORT MCS REMNANTS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD BUT

RIGHT NOW FEEL THE ODDS ARE BETTER THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AT

LEAST JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

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