Powerball Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 On a different note, this could finally be Detroit's first official heat wave (3 consecutive days of 90*F+ highs) since the end of August in 2010. Of course it is in jeopardy though, especially with tomorrow and Tuesday depending on convective debris (Monday), then the timing of the cold front and strength of cold air advection (Tuesday). TWC is going with 92*F all 3 days, we'll see about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Euro looks nasty hot in the extended. Huge 594+ ridge swallowing the entire central US from the Dakotas to Texas. Euro/GFS both get close to 600 dm's with that massive high. Looks like boredom galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 109 right now in Wichita. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Since 2000, number of days with a 70+ dewpoint at LAF (and the peak value and date), year to date through July 10. 26: 2010 (79º on 6/12) 24: 2004 (77º on 6/11) 22: 2002 (76º on 6/21) 22: 2000* (76º on 7/10) 21: 2011 (79º on 7/2) 18: 2003 (77º on 7/4) 15: 2001 (80º on 7/7) 13: 2005 (75º on 6/25) 12: 2008 (74º on 6/7) 10: 2009 (74º on 6/25) 10: 2007 (74º on 6/27) 10: 2006 (73º three times) *some missing data. Note: No 70º dewpoints in April during this stretch, so all come from May, June, and July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Since 2000, number of days with a 70+ dewpoint at LAF (and the peak value and date), year to date through July 10. 26: 2010 (79º on 6/12) 24: 2004 (77º on 6/11) 22: 2002 (76º on 6/21) 22: 2000* (76º on 7/10) 21: 2011 (79º on 7/2) 18: 2003 (77º on 7/4) 15: 2001 (80º on 7/7) 13: 2005 (75º on 6/25) 12: 2008 (74º on 6/7) 10: 2009 (74º on 6/25) 10: 2007 (74º on 6/27) 10: 2006 (73º three times) *some missing data. Note: No 70º dewpoints in April during this stretch, so all come from May, June, and July. Last couple years have seemed more muggy. And no heat advisory for us tomorrow. Consider me stunned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Last couple years have seemed more muggy. And no heat advisory for us tomorrow. Consider me stunned. Pretty close though. Advisory or not, it'll be miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Pretty close though. Advisory or not, it'll be miserable. Would count on it getting expanded later. 80/near 80 degree dewpoints lurking upstream around STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Dewpoint is only in mid-upper 50's in western ohio. It could get up to 92-93 and still feel fine. Summer of my childhood. 87/64 here in Southwest Ohio http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KFFO.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 110 in Wichita 104 in Joplin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Would count on it getting expanded later. 80/near 80 degree dewpoints lurking upstream around STL. I suppose. Regardless, I don't think a lot of people pay a lot of attention to Heat Advisories around here. I guess I could be wrong. Really though, 103 vs 105 is essentially a push anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 I suppose. Regardless, I don't think a lot of people pay a lot of attention to Heat Advisories around here. I guess I could be wrong. Really though, 103 vs 105 is essentially a push anyway. Yeah, not really any sensible difference. In any case, tomorrow should be interesting whether by way of storms or excessive heat. I normally like to see 850 mb temps of 24-25C and mixing to that level for us to have a shot at 100 (though factors such as dry ground can compensate a bit). We have that and even a tad warmer on some of the warmest models but may not be able to mix quite that high. We don't see these temps overhead very often. If it becomes clear that we're going to avoid convective debris and thermal profiles are verifying on the warm side at 12z Monday, I might have to consider a late revision upward by several degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Yeah, not really any sensible difference. In any case, tomorrow should be interesting whether by way of storms or excessive heat. I normally like to see 850 mb temps of 24-25C and mixing to that level for us to have a shot at 100 (though factors such as dry ground can compensate a bit). We have that and even a tad warmer on some of the warmest models but may not be able to mix quite that high. We don't see these temps overhead very often. If it becomes clear that we're going to avoid convective debris and thermal profiles are verifying on the warm side at 12z Monday, I might have to consider a late revision upward by several degrees. Go for it, you know you want to. Chad is calling for 100 in their western viewing area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Go for it, you know you want to. Chad is calling for 100 in their western viewing area. Sounds like Chad is all in...going for local heat indices over 110, possible microbursts and heat bursts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Hit 93 here at the house today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 110 in Wichita 104 in Joplin JLN 104/65 SGF 101/66 Utterly disgusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 110 in Wichita 104 in Joplin Gotta say that the last time Wichita hit 110, was July 30, 1986. Further, the temperature also has tied the record high for the date set back during the summer of 1980. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Sounds like Chad is all in...going for local heat indices over 110, possible microbursts and heat bursts. Is there anything he's leaving out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Is there anything he's leaving out? I thought I read something about heat induced swarms of furious locusts somewhere in there. Looking pretty dark off to the north here. The storms look to pass north though unless something develops off to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 I thought I read something about heat induced swarms of furious locusts somewhere in there. Looking pretty dark off to the north here. The storms look to pass north though unless something develops off to the west. Yep, better watch out for those too. 89 here so far today. Wouldn't be shocked by an inbetween hour 90 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 E. St. Louis at 80 dew point and 112 heat index gives even me the willies, and I'm a native Houstonian. Brutal heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Go for it, you know you want to. Chad is calling for 100 in their western viewing area. Chad is hoping so. He is wanting his summer forecast to verify. I'll bet he's liking the Euro extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Chad is hoping so. He is wanting his summer forecast to verify. I'll bet he's liking the Euro extended. Well then, we better start getting some 100's in here, stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Yep, better watch out for those too. 89 here so far today. Wouldn't be shocked by an inbetween hour 90 though. 89 it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 00z NAM has 2m values of 94/81 here at 21z. Mercy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Heh, WJBK is forecasting a high of 99*F tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 00z NAM has 2m values of 94/81 here at 21z. Mercy. Ouch. Makes you sweat just thinking about it. Dews are continuing to slowly creep up out this way. Sitting at 82/75 currently. Moline's dewpoint is up to 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Ouch. Makes you sweat just thinking about it. Dews are continuing to slowly creep up out this way. Sitting at 82/75 currently. Moline's dewpoint is up to 78. 94/81 is a heat index of 115. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 94/81 is a heat index of 115. Tis the season I guess lol. NAM has us at 92/81 at 18z before we apparently get rescued by a storm complex, and cools us down substantially. If the storms/cloud cover hold off though, we'll likely make the mid 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Tis the season I guess lol. NAM has us at 92/81 at 18z before we apparently get rescued by a storm complex, and cools us down substantially. If the storms/cloud cover hold off though, we'll likely make the mid 90s. Took a quick look at the 00z RUC BUFKIT...it has 850 mb temps 25C here at 18z but only mixing up to 900 mb at that time. 900 mb temps are 28C though which would suggest upper 90's with a couple hours of heating to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Tomorrow would have insane instability if we had steeper mid level lapse rates. We're still generating like 4000 MLCAPE with lapse rates that aren't that impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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