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July 2011 general discussion/obs thread


OHSnow

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On a different note, this could finally be Detroit's first official heat wave (3 consecutive days of 90*F+ highs) since the end of August in 2010.

Of course it is in jeopardy though, especially with tomorrow and Tuesday depending on convective debris (Monday), then the timing of the cold front and strength of cold air advection (Tuesday).

TWC is going with 92*F all 3 days, we'll see about that.

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Since 2000, number of days with a 70+ dewpoint at LAF (and the peak value and date), year to date through July 10.

26: 2010 (79º on 6/12)

24: 2004 (77º on 6/11)

22: 2002 (76º on 6/21)

22: 2000* (76º on 7/10)

21: 2011 (79º on 7/2)

18: 2003 (77º on 7/4)

15: 2001 (80º on 7/7)

13: 2005 (75º on 6/25)

12: 2008 (74º on 6/7)

10: 2009 (74º on 6/25)

10: 2007 (74º on 6/27)

10: 2006 (73º three times)

*some missing data.

Note: No 70º dewpoints in April during this stretch, so all come from May, June, and July.

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Since 2000, number of days with a 70+ dewpoint at LAF (and the peak value and date), year to date through July 10.

26: 2010 (79º on 6/12)

24: 2004 (77º on 6/11)

22: 2002 (76º on 6/21)

22: 2000* (76º on 7/10)

21: 2011 (79º on 7/2)

18: 2003 (77º on 7/4)

15: 2001 (80º on 7/7)

13: 2005 (75º on 6/25)

12: 2008 (74º on 6/7)

10: 2009 (74º on 6/25)

10: 2007 (74º on 6/27)

10: 2006 (73º three times)

*some missing data.

Note: No 70º dewpoints in April during this stretch, so all come from May, June, and July.

Last couple years have seemed more muggy.

And no heat advisory for us tomorrow. Consider me stunned.

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Would count on it getting expanded later. 80/near 80 degree dewpoints lurking upstream around STL.

I suppose. Regardless, I don't think a lot of people pay a lot of attention to Heat Advisories around here. I guess I could be wrong. Really though, 103 vs 105 is essentially a push anyway.

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I suppose. Regardless, I don't think a lot of people pay a lot of attention to Heat Advisories around here. I guess I could be wrong. Really though, 103 vs 105 is essentially a push anyway.

Yeah, not really any sensible difference.

In any case, tomorrow should be interesting whether by way of storms or excessive heat. I normally like to see 850 mb temps of 24-25C and mixing to that level for us to have a shot at 100 (though factors such as dry ground can compensate a bit). We have that and even a tad warmer on some of the warmest models but may not be able to mix quite that high. We don't see these temps overhead very often. If it becomes clear that we're going to avoid convective debris and thermal profiles are verifying on the warm side at 12z Monday, I might have to consider a late revision upward by several degrees. :guitar:

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Yeah, not really any sensible difference.

In any case, tomorrow should be interesting whether by way of storms or excessive heat. I normally like to see 850 mb temps of 24-25C and mixing to that level for us to have a shot at 100 (though factors such as dry ground can compensate a bit). We have that and even a tad warmer on some of the warmest models but may not be able to mix quite that high. We don't see these temps overhead very often. If it becomes clear that we're going to avoid convective debris and thermal profiles are verifying on the warm side at 12z Monday, I might have to consider a late revision upward by several degrees. :guitar:

Go for it, you know you want to. :guitar: Chad is calling for 100 in their western viewing area.

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I thought I read something about heat induced swarms of furious locusts somewhere in there. :lmao:

Looking pretty dark off to the north here. The storms look to pass north though unless something develops off to the west.

Yep, better watch out for those too. :drunk:

89 here so far today. Wouldn't be shocked by an inbetween hour 90 though.

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Tis the season I guess lol.

NAM has us at 92/81 at 18z before we apparently get rescued by a storm complex, and cools us down substantially. If the storms/cloud cover hold off though, we'll likely make the mid 90s.

Took a quick look at the 00z RUC BUFKIT...it has 850 mb temps 25C here at 18z but only mixing up to 900 mb at that time. 900 mb temps are 28C though which would suggest upper 90's with a couple hours of heating to go.

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