SpartyOn Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 No. I agree. That's why I think temps will only be a little above normal next month. Kind of like this month -- it really hasn't been a cold month at all. Detroit, Toledo, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh are all 2 or more degrees above normal. To the extent people think it's been cool, it's only because their perception of what is normal is wrong. Seems to be a common theme as of late.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Thank you Ytterbium. Look at the rest of the forecast...mid 70s every day, probably the warmest it's been out there as a lot of days have been in the 60s this June for Chicago. Also, as Harry says, heat keeps getting pushed further and further back. That's a sign that this will not be a persistently hot summer outside of the drought-ridden areas of the Southern Plains. Models keep showing potent heat waves in the longer range and then cutting back as we approach, seems to be a trend that may continue for most of the warm season. This is going to be the type of summer where there are 2-3 day periods of intense heat due to the death ridge that has been reinforced by the low rainfall; however, it will not be persistent heat as many areas experienced in 2010, since we have a -NAO as well as cooler air over Canada. Hold yer horses there...We had periods of a -NAO last Summer during "heat" weeks. That theory works some of time. Only till some sort of Block or the Bermuda high smacks you...like last summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 18z GFS brings in 850 mb temps of 26C. Big question continues to be whether we can tap into that air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 No. I agree. That's why I think temps will only be a little above normal next month. Kind of like this month -- it really hasn't been a cold month at all. Detroit, Toledo, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh are all 2 or more degrees above normal. To the extent people think it's been cool, it's only because their perception of what is normal is wrong. The above average temps this month is mostly thanks to the hot weather we had to start. Remove that and it's been average to (more likely) below average month. And the cool/stable summers continue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 The above average temps this month is mostly thanks to the hot weather we had to start. Remove that and it's been average to (more likely) below average month. And the cool/stable summers continue... Detroit is rolling in at a +1.9 and looking to hold around that. 70.5 is our monthly avg temp. Tried to do the math and figured without the early heat we would still be plus. Either way this has been a top shelf June. Stable with plenty of Sun. Cant remember such a June that has been more catered to outdoor activities. The most noteworthy part of June 2011 was the lack of humidity and steady temps ranging from 75-82. Its been solid.. giving June 2011 an A What will July hold?? wait and see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Detroit is rolling in at a +1.9 and looking to hold around that. 70.5 is our monthly avg temp. Tried to do the math and figured without the early heat we would still be plus. Either way this has been a top shelf June. Stable with plenty of Sun. Cant remember such a June that has been more catered to outdoor activities. The most noteworthy part of June 2011 was the lack of humidity and steady temps ranging from 75-82. Its been solid.. giving June 2011 an A What will July hold?? wait and see.. Well first off, the warm lows we had certainly helped to keep our average temps boosted. Second, the average monthly temperature is the average high and average low combined. I calculated the average high in June for Detroit and it's around 78*. If you remove the heat wave (replace them with average temperatures) and just consider the high temperatures the June average for this year would be roughly 77*, or -1* below normal. So yeah, this certainly wasn't one of our finest Junes when it comes to summer heat. It certainly wasn't one for me given the lack of severe weather and the abrupt shutoff of the oven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 28, 2011 Author Share Posted June 28, 2011 Well first off, the warm lows we had certainly helped to keep our average temps boosted. Second, the average monthly temperature is the average high and average low combined. I calculated the average high in June for Detroit and it's around 78*. If you remove the heat wave (replace them with average temperatures) and just consider the high temperatures the June average for this year would be roughly 77*, or -1* below normal. So yeah, this certainly wasn't one of our finest Junes when it comes to summer heat. It certainly wasn't one for me given the lack of severe weather and the abrupt shutoff of the oven. What the heck? The normal high in Detroit in June is 79.0. The average high so far this month has been 80.1. The normal low is 58.9. The average low this month has been 60.9. Not sure where you are getting your numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 28, 2011 Author Share Posted June 28, 2011 The above average temps this month is mostly thanks to the hot weather we had to start. Remove that and it's been average to (more likely) below average month. And the cool/stable summers continue... Huh? Last summer was anything but cool in Detroit. It was about 3.0 degrees above normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 What the heck? The normal high in Detroit in June is 79.0. The average high so far this month has been 80.1. REMOVING THE ANOMALOUS EARLY JUNE HEATWAVE (replacing it with normal temps) the average high would fall below normal. And yes, it is 79*. I calculated 78.5*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Oh boy...Either way you slice it. June was above normal for Detroit.. Powerball you will get your heat! Wait about 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 REMOVING THE ANOMALOUS EARLY JUNE HEATWAVE (replacing it with normal temps) the average high would fall below normal. And yes, it is 79*. I calculated 78.5*. No offense but you cant just remove numbers to justify your argument, the fact is it has been above normal this month both with the Highs and Lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 NAM spits out near 80 dew points across the northern plains by Thursday. We will see, but that would be the highest in years up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 If any convective development can occur up there, it could explode... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 And yes, it is 79*. I calculated 78.5*. Ah, now I remember, the 78.3* number was the average high to date. That would have to be the number in order for us to possibly have a 1.9* departure, or 58.2* as the average low to date. Or it's 78.65* and 58.55*, somewhere in that ballpark. Anyway, My point still stands with respect to below average temperatures without the heatwave (replaced with averaged temperatures), or even just average with the overnight lows as is factored in. The anomalous heatwave pretty much skewed the departures for many areas. Yeah, my graphing calculator has been decommissioned for the time being. I'm using the computer calculator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 No offense but you cant just remove numbers to justify your argument, the fact is it has been above normal this month both with the Highs and Lows. meh.. He has a point about HOW MANY days were above normal i suppose? Granted i am not sure of what the scors card is on that. But heck if the above normal temps were because of a 5 day heatwave i surely wouldn't say the month as a whole was above normal and or a torch. Ofcourse this sort of stuff usually only matters to those who do seasonal wx forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Hold yer horses there...We had periods of a -NAO last Summer during "heat" weeks. That theory works some of time. Only till some sort of Block or the Bermuda high smacks you...like last summer ALL a matter of exactly WHERE that -NAO sets up shop along with a few other things as well. If the -NAO is in the correct spot we could torch big time. You also have the PNA/EPO/AO etc to account for as well. Why again it is never good to just follow one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 But heck if the above normal temps were because of a 5 day heatwave i surely wouldn't say the month as a whole was above normal and or a torch. Yep, that was pretty much my point. It would be like saying February was a snowy month because one 12"+ snowstorm pushed it above average despite very little snow the rest of the month. I do understand not everyone is concerned about little nuances like that though (disecting and examining every little piece of data versus taking it whole). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 So far what i have seen is that if it wants to we can very easily torch big time despite the wet soils and thus why even i know better then to write anything off. So don't think i am writing off any heat potential down the road. Thing is we *may* lose our heat/Torch source when the monsoon season kicks in in the SW. Thus something to keep a eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Yep, that was pretty much my point. It would be like saying February was a snowy month because one 12"+ snowstorm pushed it above average despite very little snow the rest of the month. I do understand not everyone is concerned about little nuances like that though (disecting and examining every little piece of data versus taking it whole). I remember a few of us having this debate a few years back when the winter of 00-01 got discussed. On the maps in some areas etc it looked cold as a whole for D-J-F but when breaking it down Dec *seemed* to be the reason why it tilted cold because Jan and Feb ended up above normal BUT upon further inspection alot of that warmth was because of a couple of days in both month's that torched big time. Thus the problem with averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Yep, that was pretty much my point. It would be like saying February was a snowy month because one 12"+ snowstorm pushed it above average despite very little snow the rest of the month. I do understand not everyone is concerned about little nuances like that though (disecting and examining every little piece of data versus taking it whole). .....the same thing could be said about what you're doing. If your 12" above normal in snowfall for a month and then just decide to "get rid" of it and call it an average month...well that doesn't make sense to me. A month is a month. If you want to look at the number of days above 90* and see if that's below normal, then thats fine...but to not look at a heatwave and then call a month cool is nonsensical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 0z GFS has +26-28C 850mb temps over the area on Friday, but it's only showing a mixing level of around 900mb or so...as it has for several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 0z GFS has +26-28C 850mb temps over the area on Friday, but it's only showing a mixing level of around 900mb or so...as it has for several runs. These 850 mb temps being progged are some of the warmest I can recall in several years. Models were showing temps like that for July 24, 2005, but they ended up being too warm. But the drought offset that and Chicago still surpassed 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 The 00z NAM has 850 mb temps of 33C around Omaha at 12z Friday. That is nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Liking the potential for atleast one solid MCS between friday-sunday looking at 0z GFS. That frontal boundary stalls over the area friday into saturday with insane amounts of moisture and instability to work with. Let's hope for a nice wave to ripple through the southern fringe of the flow. All 3 days have dew points around 80 on the GFS which is probably a tad overdone but still crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 The 0z GFS keeps places along I-80 in IL over 3000 j/kg of SBCAPE between 18z friday to 6z tuesday except for a 6hr period overnight sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Ah, now I remember, the 78.3* number was the average high to date. That would have to be the number in order for us to possibly have a 1.9* departure, or 58.2* as the average low to date. Or it's 78.65* and 58.55*, somewhere in that ballpark. Anyway, My point still stands with respect to below average temperatures without the heatwave (replaced with averaged temperatures), or even just average with the overnight lows as is factored in. The anomalous heatwave pretty much skewed the departures for many areas. Yeah, my graphing calculator has been decommissioned for the time being. I'm using the computer calculator. Dude, you can't remove a heat wave. The fact that it happened, causes your average to be above average. Sorry but that is the truth and science. What if we removed all cold spells and heat waves? Then we would always have average temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Dude, you can't remove a heat wave. The fact that it happened, causes your average to be above average. Sorry but that is the truth and science. What if we removed all cold spells and heat waves? Then we would always have average temperatures. I don't think he is arguing that. Thus the actual number for the month. He is debating how the month as a WHOLE has felt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Latest DTX AFD ends with this tantalizing bit... LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT EXTREME INSTABILITY MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH CAPE VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE +4000 J/KG. EDGE OF THE CAP/STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SUGGESTS A GOOD RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 He is debating how the month as a WHOLE has felt. Again, that's exactly where I was getting at. The fact of the matter is this wasn't overall a hot June, in fact it was seasonably coolish. If the heat was consistently spread out through the entire month then I would consider it hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Latest DTX AFD ends with this tantalizing bit... The entire 4th of July weekend looked extremely interesting on last night's GFS run...now let's see if we can get some consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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