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July 2011 general discussion/obs thread


OHSnow

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It is being discussed, but however it shakes out Powerball will still be in the same region that LAF folks post in. Right now we are discussing a Plains/Intermountain W region on its own.

Get rid of him and a few others...problem solved.

If what your suggesting occurs, the problems will still exist until the sources are gone.

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How about we do everyone a favor and axe powerball :)

Get rid of him and a few others...problem solved.

If what your suggesting occurs, the problems will still exist until the sources are gone.

The main reason it would possibly be done is simply due to the geographical/weather/climate differences. It is difficult if not impossible for the plains region to grow with the overall dominance of the Great Lakes posting crew. We already have too many broken up regions in central/western, and it just doesn't make sense to have the plains coupled with the Great Lakes. I don't necessarily want to do it, but it would possibly help growth of the plains region.

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The main reason it would possibly be done is simply due to the geographical/weather/climate differences. It is difficult if not impossible for the plains region to grow with the overall dominance of the Great Lakes posting crew. We already have too many broken up regions in central/western, and it just doesn't make sense to have the plains coupled with the Great Lakes. I don't necessarily want to do it, but it would possibly help growth of the plains region.

No I understand this, but since we are doing a little housework, wouldn't hurt to axe a few people, torchartie wouldnt hurt to be axed too :) :)

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The main reason it would possibly be done is simply due to the geographical differences. It is difficult if not impossible for the plains region to grow with the overall dominance of the Great Lakes posting crew. We already have too many broken up regions in central/western, and it just doesn't make sense to have the plains coupled with the Great Lakes. I don't necessarily want to do it, but it would possibly help growth of the plains region.

That is all true, which is why that change (if it occurs) is something I would support. ...Especially during severe weather season.

The issue is there would still be an issue in the Great Lakes threads.

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When are we gonna be able to see the dual-pole available through Allisonhouse and other venues? I'm not all that familiar with DP, but from the little of looking around that I've done it's not available yet to the public. Maybe I'm missing something?

Data for DP sites for level2 is already avaliable through GRLevelX, but for an additional fee of $125.

The last I heard any news on level3 was back in March, and the news was that we won't see anything for quite a while.

Currently there are only three sites transmitting DP data, KVNX (Vance AFB, OK) and KIWA (Phoenix, AZ), and KMHX (Morehead City, NC). So at this point we're not really missing out on anything.

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I don't get the hype over the whole 90 thing in the first place. A high of 86 with a high dewpoint is worse than a high of 90 and a low dewpoint.

I guess since Lima has hit 90 or 91 3/4 days should make me feel special.

90 is just an arbitrary number, but gets hyped for its evenness. Do people in Canada get worked up over whether it hit 32.2c, our 90f, or do they consider 30c instead to be the benchmark? Which of course is an even more arbitrary 86f in the states.

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lol. :facepalm:

Anyways, getting back to discussing the topic at hand (weather). both airports are at 88*F now. Maybe today we can get a 90*F, especially with a deep WNW flow and full sunshine (then increased mixing from the cold front). Some instability is out there (1000+ J/KG and LI's of -4) with a weak cold front passing through, so maybe a few t'storms will develop too. There were a few heavy rain showers around midday in Monroe County and around Toledo along the pre-frontal trough, but tehy've since moved east/diminished.

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So far through July 5th ...

MKE: +6.4

ORD: +7.2

DTW: +6.3

MSP: +6.8

NAEFS has been very good in the 8-14 day range last year and so far this year. Check this out:

2011070600_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png

More reliable info ... they were spot on last summer.

sfe1t_s.gif

I think we've turned the corner and the below normal months will be a thing of the past for awhile. July, August and September could particularly roast here in the Midwest/Lakes.

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NAEFS looks very similar to the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks -- both of which show warmer than normal temps for much of the eastern half of the country, with cooler than normal conditions confined to the west coast and parts of Alaska.

I also think you're right about turning the corner towards some warmer times.

So far through July 5th ...

MKE: +6.4

ORD: +7.2

DTW: +6.3

MSP: +6.8

[sNIP]

I think we've turned the corner and the below normal months will be a thing of the past for awhile. July, August and September could particularly roast here in the Midwest/Lakes.

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DVN

THIS WEEKEND...THIS IS WHEN THE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS

WITH A VENGEANCE. HEIGHTS RISE A BIT ALLOWING FOR A HOT AND CAPPED

ATMOSPHERE TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE CWA. STILL BELIEVE

THAT ANY MCS ACTIVITY RIDING THE EDGE OF THE CAP IN THE ZONAL FLOW

WILL REMAIN IN MN AND WI WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DERECHO.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION FOR ANY CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS

THAT COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA. SATURDAY WE WILL START TO

FEEL THE HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S

WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S.

SUNDAY...BARRING ANY INTERFERENCE FROM A NEARBY MCS THIS SHOULD BE

THE HOTTEST DAY OVER ALL THE CWA. WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM A

JULY CORN CROP DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING INTO THE OPPRESSIVE LEVEL IN

THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WITH MAX TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE LOWER 90S HEAT

INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 100-106 WITH HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES

EVENTUALLY NEEDED. IF WE END UP TOTALLY SUNNY ON SUNDAY THEN MAX

TEMPS WOULD MAKE MID 90S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS IS THE TIME FRAME WHEN THINGS

GET TRICKY. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT

OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONTAL

BOUNDARY WILL STALL WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS

AND WHERE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL TAKE PLACE. POTENTIAL FOR

HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER BUT A TOUGH CALL THIS FAR OUT IF THIS

WILL OCCUR IN THE DVN CWA. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THE COOLER AND

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR NE CWA...WHILE THE HOT AND HUMID

CONDITIONS REMAIN IN OUR SW CWA. WILL ALSO HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS

ENTIRE PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL CONFINE THE HOT/HUMID WEATHER IN OUR

SOUTHERN CWA WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES AGAIN WILL BE IN THE 100-105

RANGE.

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90 is just an arbitrary number, but gets hyped for its evenness. Do people in Canada get worked up over whether it hit 32.2c, our 90f, or do they consider 30c instead to be the benchmark? Which of course is an even more arbitrary 86f in the states.

ya up here our benchmark is 30C. The news, people and work always tend to use the 30C temperature as a guide to describing intense summer heat.

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90 at Toledo and 94 at Metcalf Field. Last 6 days at TOL: 89, 91, 98, 90, 88, 90 [average 91.0] and at TDZ: 92, 95, 100, 94, 88, 94 [average 93.8].

TDZ with another 95+ day, topping out at 96*, while TOL hit 93.

On the bright side CLE is only going with low 80s tomorrow... finally some relief from this persistent heat.

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