OHSnow Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Looks to start out hot for most... not too sure where we go from there. Though I suspect either the central or western US will bake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 GFS showing hot, hot, hot all the way through hour 384 for the GL. Not liking that at all... Don't need no repeats of last July.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 GFS showing hot, hot, hot all the way through hour 384 for the GL. Not liking that at all... Don't need no repeats of last July.. 12z looks fairly typical July temps to me outside of a day or two. Are we looking at the same run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 12z looks fairly typical July temps to me outside of a day or two. Are we looking at the same run? With that trough that digs down into the GL, it would probably even be below normal for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 With that trough that digs down into the GL, it would probably even be below normal for a time. Yeah, certainly not day after day of hot temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 12z looks fairly typical July temps to me outside of a day or two. Are we looking at the same run? Probably not, I looked at today's 06z run, because the 12z hadn't updated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 These rains are starting to take a toll. Flash flooding and flooding - many areas. Will be curious how this pattern shapes up - 1993 was like this. One complex after another - for weeks on end. '93 was the year of the meso-complexes. Never seen anything quite like that year. I remember '93 quite well. It was an exciting season, that's for sure. I think we were under storm watches about every 5-6 days. It was unreal. I was a 9-1-1 operator at the time in the suburbs. We were quite busy. I haven't seen anything quite like that since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 GFS backed off quite a bit on the heat here - seems to be a fine line between the heat and the storms - as always. Want to be on that boundary to get the action. I noticed the models have STRUGGLED with the heat ridge for the last week or two - also the thunderstorm complexes keep pushing the warm front south. This messed up forecasts for days on end in this region. I hate the heat - not a fan. These rains are starting to take a toll. Flash flooding and flooding - many areas. Will be curious how this pattern shapes up - 1993 was like this. One complex after another - for weeks on end. '93 was the year of the meso-complexes. Never seen anything quite like that year. Yeah, I totally agree. The trend is your friend, most of the time. So I am somewhat skeptical that we will see the type of extreme heat that has been common across OK and TX. Looking at the Euro over the pas few days, one consistent trend has been the formation of a Hudson Bay PV at the end of the run. That should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 26, 2011 Author Share Posted June 26, 2011 Here is my updated outlook for July... I pushed the ridge a little further west to account for model trends. I'm expecting temps 1-2 degrees above normal for most of the country, with some 3-5 degree above normal readings across the intermountain west. Also warmer than normal readings should prevail across Alaska, particularly the North Slope due to unusually early ice melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 26, 2011 Author Share Posted June 26, 2011 GFS backed off quite a bit on the heat here - seems to be a fine line between the heat and the storms - as always. Want to be on that boundary to get the action. I noticed the models have STRUGGLED with the heat ridge for the last week or two - also the thunderstorm complexes keep pushing the warm front south. This messed up forecasts for days on end in this region. I hate the heat - not a fan. These rains are starting to take a toll. Flash flooding and flooding - many areas. Will be curious how this pattern shapes up - 1993 was like this. One complex after another - for weeks on end. '93 was the year of the meso-complexes. Never seen anything quite like that year. I'm not seeing the GFS backing away from the heat. I'm seeing 850mb temps of 25-26C across northern and central Illinois by July 1. That should support widespread temps near 100. I think H85 temps during the early June heat wave were only 22 or 23C in those areas. And if we look at the source region for all this heat, we're seeing all-time record breaking readings of 110-114 across much of the Texas panhandle region. Granted, it cools down after that for sure, as reflected in my updated outlook. But if July 1-3 average 10 degrees above normal, the damage will have already been done as that's a cumulative departure of +30. The last 28 days would have to average a little more than 1 degree below normal just to offset that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 26, 2011 Author Share Posted June 26, 2011 LOT going with temps as high as 97 in parts of Chicago. Even that seems a little low to me -- I would think 98 to 103 is a more likely range, with H85 temps so high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 LOT going with temps as high as 97 in parts of Chicago. Even that seems a little low to me -- I would think 98 to 103 is a more likely range, with H85 temps so high. The problem is that current runs aren't suggesting mixing depths to that level. If they're off, though, then temperatures that high would be likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 The problem is that current runs aren't suggesting mixing depths to that level. If they're off, though, then temperatures that high would be likely. Doesn't matter. I'm not seeing anything over 95º (using point and click) being forecasted by LOT for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 LOT's AFD today suggests that a cold front may move through Fri-Sat, or Sat-Sun? The GFS I was looking didn't show that. AFD from this morning: SUSPECT THAT MODELS UNDERDOING THIS A BIT...AND WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER ECMWF GUIDANCE. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA Then there is this from this afternoon's update.. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A STRONG SURGE OF HOT AIR EWD FROM THE PLAINS STATES...ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS GIVING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT UNLESS THERE`S CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THESE NUMBERS WILL BE TOO CONSERVATIVE CONSIDERING THAT BOTH THE EURO AND GFS HAVE AN AXIS OF 25 C 850 MB TEMPS OVER THE FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW HAVE JUST BUMPED UP FORECAST MAX`S ABOUT 4 F DEGREES FROM TESTBED GRID. So, it looks like the holdiay weekend is going to be HOT!... No mention of a cold front moving through.... perhaps that will change by week's end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Doesn't matter. I'm not seeing anything over 95º (using point and click) being forecasted by LOT for Friday. 96F downtown per point and click, but that's the highest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 LOT's AFD today suggests that a cold front may move through Fri-Sat, or Sat-Sun? The GFS I was looking didn't show that. AFD from this morning: Then there is this from this afternoon's update.. So, it looks like the holdiay weekend is going to be HOT!... No mention of a cold front moving through.... perhaps that will change by week's end... The front will still move through. Merzlock just chose to not discuss anything past Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 96F downtown per point and click, but that's the highest. I stand corrected then. I tried to hit as many spots as I could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 The front will still move through. Merzlock just chose to not discuss anything past Friday. Just go with it man. Heat for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Just go with it man. Heat for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 I say it in jest. Friday will be a torch no doubt, but it looks rather seasonable for the rest of the 4th weekend. Should be a good one for cookouts and the like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 I say it in jest. Friday will be a torch no doubt, but it looks rather seasonable for the rest of the 4th weekend. Should be a good one for cookouts and the like. My sister is having her cookout on Sunday the 3rd... hopefully the weather will be nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 26, 2011 Author Share Posted June 26, 2011 96F downtown per point and click, but that's the highest. No, like I said, LOT is forecast some parts of Chicago to reach 97 Friday. SW Corner of the city between I-290 and I-55. http://forecast.weat...n&FcstType=text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 No, like I said, LOT is forecast some parts of Chicago to reach 97 Friday. SW Corner of the city between I-290 and I-55. http://forecast.weat...n&FcstType=text It's gonna be hot, whether it is 97 or 99.6969696969 who cares.. Unless if there is a record to break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 12z looks fairly typical July temps to me outside of a day or two. Are we looking at the same run? Yeah, certainly not day after day of hot temps. My hunch is those temps come down as well. That based on projected MJO wave/amplitude which yeah could always change. Amazing how the same few have been going on about this heatwave showing up on the models for several weeks now. Hello folks but that IS a hint. I cannot believe we are back to humping modeled heat waves at 4-5 days and beyond. sheesh.. Amazing how some will never learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 My hunch is those temps come down as well. That based on projected MJO wave/amplitude which yeah could always change. Amazing how the same few have been going on about this heatwave showing up on the models for several weeks now. Hello folks but that IS a hint. I cannot believe we are back to humping modeled heat waves at 4-5 days and beyond. sheesh.. Amazing how some will never learn. Great post harry, we could use your long range stuff more during the summer. And those few are the resident trolls what can you do..It was bearable with just one before but Resp Guy+ Torchartie+ Ytterbumm equals warmista weenie mayhem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 No, like I said, LOT is forecast some parts of Chicago to reach 97 Friday. SW Corner of the city between I-290 and I-55. Thank you Ytterbium. Look at the rest of the forecast...mid 70s every day, probably the warmest it's been out there as a lot of days have been in the 60s this June for Chicago. Also, as Harry says, heat keeps getting pushed further and further back. That's a sign that this will not be a persistently hot summer outside of the drought-ridden areas of the Southern Plains. Models keep showing potent heat waves in the longer range and then cutting back as we approach, seems to be a trend that may continue for most of the warm season. This is going to be the type of summer where there are 2-3 day periods of intense heat due to the death ridge that has been reinforced by the low rainfall; however, it will not be persistent heat as many areas experienced in 2010, since we have a -NAO as well as cooler air over Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 27, 2011 Author Share Posted June 27, 2011 Thank you Ytterbium. Look at the rest of the forecast...mid 70s every day, probably the warmest it's been out there as a lot of days have been in the 60s this June for Chicago. Also, as Harry says, heat keeps getting pushed further and further back. That's a sign that this will not be a persistently hot summer outside of the drought-ridden areas of the Southern Plains. Models keep showing potent heat waves in the longer range and then cutting back as we approach, seems to be a trend that may continue for most of the warm season. This is going to be the type of summer where there are 2-3 day periods of intense heat due to the death ridge that has been reinforced by the low rainfall; however, it will not be persistent heat as many areas experienced in 2010, since we have a -NAO as well as cooler air over Canada. No. I agree. That's why I think temps will only be a little above normal next month. Kind of like this month -- it really hasn't been a cold month at all. Detroit, Toledo, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh are all 2 or more degrees above normal. To the extent people think it's been cool, it's only because their perception of what is normal is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Looks like Summer might arrive here in July, I haven't witnessed such a stretch of boring/crappy weather in my entire life living here. It either rains everyday or is cloudy, 14 of the last 20 days it has rained! In my hometown at least, not chasing..I think we have had 2 actual thunderstorms all year with the best one being in March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Potential for heat headlines on Friday... THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A STRONG SURGE OF HOT AIR EWD FROM THE PLAINS STATES...ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. FRIDAY. TEST BED GRIDS CONTINUE TO YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT UNLESS THERE'S CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THESE NUMBERS ARE TOO CONSERVATIVE CONSIDERING THAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AXIS OF 25+ C 850 MB TEMPS OVER THE FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SAGGING SWD INTO NRN IA/SRN WI BY 00Z SAT. THIS WOULD AGREE WITH THERMAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH AN AREA OF DEW POINT POOLING. FOR NOW HAVE JUST BUMPED UP FORECAST MAX'S ABOUT 4 F DEGREES FROM TESTBED GRIDS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE/RE TALKING ABOUT SOME SORT OF HEAT HEADLINE THIS TIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 27, 2011 Author Share Posted June 27, 2011 Potential for heat headlines on Friday... THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A STRONG SURGE OF HOT AIR EWD FROM THE PLAINS STATES...ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. FRIDAY. TEST BED GRIDS CONTINUE TO YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT UNLESS THERE'S CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THESE NUMBERS ARE TOO CONSERVATIVE CONSIDERING THAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AXIS OF 25+ C 850 MB TEMPS OVER THE FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SAGGING SWD INTO NRN IA/SRN WI BY 00Z SAT. THIS WOULD AGREE WITH THERMAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH AN AREA OF DEW POINT POOLING. FOR NOW HAVE JUST BUMPED UP FORECAST MAX'S ABOUT 4 F DEGREES FROM TESTBED GRIDS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE/RE TALKING ABOUT SOME SORT OF HEAT HEADLINE THIS TIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON. Yeah, looks like an impressive Sonoran release. The 18z NAM had H85 temps of 31C over MSP at 84 hours / 06z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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