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July 4th Holiday weekend wx


Damage In Tolland

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I suppose as a wx enthusiast I should be rooting for 90/72 each day with severe chances, but I just hate heat to much.... I'm all for a boring comfortable July. Get a few tropical systems going to track and that will help quell the boredom.

THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM MCS

CLUSTERS ROLLING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE MEAN RIDGE ALONG THE SRN

EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES

INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. THE MAIN FOCUS COULD SHIFT

FARTHER S INTO THE TN VLY AND CAROLINAS DAYS 5-7 IF A MEAN UPPER

TROF BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE E COAST.

...Code for, 'if you live in the NE, you get no weather '

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The FSU paper is very controversial and fraught with discrepancies. Many dispute the methods and datasets. Tips intutive thinking is exactly the arguement against the Hart paper.

Bob Hart is exceptionally bright and a great meteorologist... I think his paper is certainly interesting and makes physical sense.

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:drunk:

Looks like ORH will be negative as they are only at 72 with a low of 60 so far

The late low for yesterday was 60F. For today, ORH fell to 57F. 75F for a high so far though so the 3F you missed was made up on the other end. :)

It's gorgeous out today...unfortunately I have a lot more clouds up here than you guys do in SNE.

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U-N-B-E-L-I-E-V-A-B-L-E

Knocked it out early this morning till 1, then ran home rinsed off outside and the two of us had 3 rare hours alone on the beach with no kids!!!! It was perfection, sunny 80 degrees............best spring ever has translated into a summer sensation.

Heading to the fish market, getting some steamers and a couple lbs of shrimp, do some peel and eats tonight. We made 3 homemade pitchers of Sangria a couple days ago, the peaches, oranges, apples have been sitting in the red wine and have sunk to the bottom, filled with flavor, time to add some club soda for a slight fizz...................should be a classic night.

Busy day tomorrow then its back to back to back on the beach.............3 days of glory, two parties and fireworks inland sun night and out on the sound off of penfield beach on Monday night.

I wish summer never ended :sun:

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U-N-B-E-L-I-E-V-A-B-L-E

Knocked it out early this morning till 1, then ran home rinsed off outside and the two of us had 3 rare hours alone on the beach with no kids!!!! It was perfection, sunny 80 degrees............best spring ever has translated into a summer sensation.

Heading to the fish market, getting some steamers and a couple lbs of shrimp, do some peel and eats tonight. We made 3 homemade pitchers of Sangria a couple days ago, the peaches, oranges, apples have been sitting in the red wine and have sunk to the bottom, filled with flavor, time to add some club soda for a slight fizz...................should be a classic night.

Busy day tomorrow then its back to back to back on the beach.............3 days of glory, two parties and fireworks inland sun night and out on the sound off of penfield beach on Monday night.

I wish summer never ended :sun:

Sounds awesome, packing tonight for the four day weekend at the cabin on the lake with many friends. Ribs, shrimp kabobs, pasta usual burgers and dogs as well as special Fritatta breakfast. Jamesons looks to be the libation of the weekend.

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Sounds awesome, packing tonight for the four day weekend at the cabin on the lake with many friends. Ribs, shrimp kabobs, pasta usual burgers and dogs as well as special Fritatta breakfast. Jamesons looks to be the libation of the weekend.

EPIC Ginx, sounds like you guys will have a blast............some good ole irish whisky huh? thats damn impressive in the summer! Have a good holiday, and enjoy yourself man :thumbsup:

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69/52, a high of 73, A really sweet day with a nice breeze start to finish. Despite Kevin's call that ALL of SNE would be in the 80's this week we've remained nice and cool. Temps warming to near 80 over the holiday weekend will be fine. Looking forward to bbq's, fireworks, golf, chillin' etc.

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No 80's here in quite some time. Tuesday hit 77.5F according to my max/min thermometer. I haven't seen it above 70/71 all day today.

69/52, a high of 73, A really sweet day with a nice breeze start to finish. Despite Kevin's call that ALL of SNE would be in the 80's this week we've remained nice and cool. Temps warming to near 80 over the holiday weekend will be fine. Looking forward to bbq's, fireworks, golf, chillin' etc.

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I think a +NAO is more conducive to landfalls along the East Coast (thinking a FL or NC type deal). The reason being is that you would have a ridge to the south of the +NAO trough and this would help steer storm into the US. Strong -NAO's usually produce troughing over the northeast which has steered many a storm out to sea.

It's actually a transitional NAO that is key... The +NAO gets the system across the Basin before early curvature, then the negative NAO kicks in --> heigthts collapse in the OV, up the coast she comes...

There's alot of argument that I sit back and read every autumn and it puzzles me really that no one talks about modalities - it's like that with winter storm systems, too. everyone is hung up on the mode, mode, mode - but those snap shot -NAO don't help. You need the differentiating mass field, en masse, to get the big winter storms. Well, ...a +NAO strengthens the Basin sup-trop R and lengthens the expanse of deep layer easterlies to give you long track Verdi systems. Step 1) get the TC across the Basin first; - NAO will hurt that effort. So to that end I agree with you.

Could also get really scientific and break the different magnitudes of the NAO out into quadrature - but that level of tedium is ....not something I want to do right now.

Anyway, once the system succeeds the 5,000 miles of the Basin, how do we bring it home... A negative NAO is certainly a way. If the counterbalancing trough for the NAO field happens to align along 90W, that's when the steering level goes due S and the express sets up.

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The FSU paper is very controversial and fraught with discrepancies. Many dispute the methods and datasets. Tips intutive thinking is exactly the arguement against the Hart paper.

It really isn't though - the Meteorology stand up in that. The delivery of the latent heat flux into the PV nodes causes them to intensify; that is inherently a leading +AO signal.

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mmmm -6C 850 temps near James Bay. This is no way to run a torch.... July 4th looking increasingly refreshing for Pete and I anyway as the trough re-digs pretty good.

Nice, no 80's here for quite a while. I hope it stays that way. With all the hype about torches we read from certain posters you'd think we'd have some actual heat to show for it. Thankfully, the only hot air we see is from the Warministas.lol This morning it was almost chilly with the wind and cloud cover. You and I have already dodged the May/June heat potential. Another 60 days and we'll be on the cusp of first frosts. So nice.

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Nice, no 80's here for quite a while. I hope it stays that way. With all the hype about torches we read from certain posters you'd think we'd have some actual heat to show for it. Thankfully, the only hot air we see is from the Warministas.lol This morning it was almost chilly with the wind and cloud cover. You and I have already dodged the May/June heat potential. Another 60 days and we'll be on the cusp of first frosts. So nice.

4 months until first flakes, maybe less!

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It really isn't though - the Meteorology stand up in that. The delivery of the latent heat flux into the PV nodes causes them to intensify; that is inherently a leading +AO signal.

Perhaps but last year I watched as TS heat flux from recurving TS's pumped heat into Greenland and intensified HP, raising heights and invigorating the -NAO.

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From the fine folks at OKX for my locale, I did not think it could get any better, but it does, and it will............sun sun sun!!

fri sunny 80

sat sunny 83

sun partly sunny 86

independence day mostly sunny 87

tuesday sunny 85

wed sunny 85

thur partly sunny 84

:thumbsup:

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You owe me a Coke

I was impressed with that CAA that occurred yesterday and last night. Really made the difference. I didn't think they'd be able to put up a 60F before yesterday ended but it chilled down during the evening. Today also got a little cooler as we got closer. A couple days ago, MOS and NWS had around 80F for the high and we obviously fell several degrees short of that....add it all up and we sneak out a negative departure for June.

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Perhaps but last year I watched as TS heat flux from recurving TS's pumped heat into Greenland and intensified HP, raising heights and invigorating the -NAO.

yeah, honestly ...i don't argue that interpretation - I was really just sounding off on the paper and offering some insight as to 'how' that might but be.

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It really isn't though - the Meteorology stand up in that. The delivery of the latent heat flux into the PV nodes causes them to intensify; that is inherently a leading +AO signal.

But there is also no coincidence that during the last 2 years of -NAO influence...we've had no East Coast landfalls.

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