Damage In Tolland Posted June 30, 2011 Author Share Posted June 30, 2011 Warmest wx with respect to normal might be to the west and north. A weak ULL will be floating around to our southeast, while a plume of warmer air makes sure Rick and Pete stay toasty. I don't really see a huge torch though. Yeah this year 90 is a torch. BDL hits 90 Sat and prob Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Rather boring lately in terms of widespread tstm activity. Perhaps Sunday offers a chance with westerly flow, but a whole lot of meh lately with tstm activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 66/55 sunny Nothing but sun and fun to honor our nations birth weekend. God Bless America, and long live summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 LOL.what? 3 out of 4 are all above normal and tomorrow looks normal You are on an incredible losing streak, could be an all time Eastern AMWX record for a poster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 What an incredible early summer day. Blue skies wall to wall Crisp and breezy Heavy heavy chillaxin en route Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Just googled Not what I had in mind. Quite disturbing actually. I figured you were either joking and I didn't realize it, were coming out of the closet, or you didn't know what a fluffer actually was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 What an incredible early summer day. Blue skies wall to wall Crisp and breezy Heavy heavy chillaxin en route yeah really a perfect morning out there...warm and no humidity. would be nice if summer could just be like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 ORH still at -0.1 for the month It got down to 60F by 1AM, so a +1 for the date...did not budge the monthly departure much Today might be a -1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 70/55, headed for 79-80 with no humidity. Perfection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 70/55, headed for 79-80 with no humidity. Perfection. 64/52 Might have to throw a log on the fire... Actually hoping it warms a bit above the forecast to help the pool. Still iced over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 ORH still at -0.1 for the month It got down to 60F by 1AM, so a +1 for the date...did not budge the monthly departure much Today might be a -1? Yep, what a torch month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Man this weekend looks great up north. Maybe a little tstm action later Saturday Night, but overall looks awesome in the Whites. Glad the worries from earlier in the week are gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Could see some severe on Sunday. RRQ of 200mb jet over SNE by 21z-00z... instability is decent and so is low level convergence. Wind fields/shear isn't great but there is a little punch of 30 knot 700mb winds nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Man this weekend looks great up north. Maybe a little tstm action later Saturday Night, but overall looks awesome in the Whites. Glad the worries from earlier in the week are gone. When are you guys heading out? Have you ever been to Lost River Gorge? If not, check it out. Probably 50F at the bottom of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Could see some severe on Sunday. RRQ of 200mb jet over SNE by 21z-00z... instability is decent and so is low level convergence. Wind fields/shear isn't great but there is a little punch of 30 knot 700mb winds nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 When are you guys heading out? Have you ever been to Lost River Gorge? If not, check it out. Probably 50F at the bottom of it Tomorrow morning. I've been to the gorge, but haven't been there in years. There's a few waterfall hikes that we could do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 just looking over the data from operatonal to teleconnectors going back over the last couple days ... don't bother with weather. enthusiasm and forecasting efforts pretty much are futile - you could take the last month's weather and just use that, and you'd win the nobel prize grades. the on-going synoptics are locked in a pattern persistence that has 0 means to change...perhaps right through until the next cold season digs in and creates gradient for that matter. that's the problem with summer, and why i feel the pattern in April and May will tend to permote persistence more than not. the problem is, as the delta(gradient) goes less, the last available influence on the flow follows by newtonian physics in a sense: an object in motion will stay in motion until acted on by another force. ..April and May set this boringness into motion and since there are so few available forces in a seasonally weaked gradient capable of changing it, the summer gets stymied for change. june 1 was an excitable exception to the boring rule, but i think with a heat node aloft in the MV, and a weakness locally, that "somewhat" probablistically sets us up for SW flows under NW flow/helicity scenarios and that particular day just cashed in. haven't seen that since, but may yet... those would be this summer's only hope it would seem. can't say it's all that bad though - boring, yeah, "bad"? not really... this really has been 3 stellar days in a row here with topico outdoor condition for after work strolls, runs, gardening, cook-outs...etc. we just have to - hopefully - avoid this nagging NE weakness from succeeding in causing a 4 day NE flow regim again. that deal last week just about bested the worst pattern i can recall in the 30 years i've live up in this part of the country. the longevitiy of it ...yeah, wasn't too absurd at only 4 days, but just the "didn't want it" ism of it had no bounds, yet unrelenting. some fraction of my fun in a day is the fresh expectation of seeing the teleonnector modalities and how the operational runs fit into them; that whole aspect had to be canceled for 4 days. the only recourse was to completely check-out and abandon operational Meteorology as an interest for 1 week. stolen. hopefully now that that apex of the summer heights/thickness is climotologically nearing said weakness will be less successful at regiming us up the ya-zoo. the up-shot here is that autumn is the time of the year that the dial is reset unilaterally... subtle changes in solar flux/oceanic kelvin wave behavior and there relationship (there is a growing science about the correlation between solar and ENSO) --> SST distribution from July 15 --> Sept/Oct tends to then lead the ENSO states, and those (this time) comebined with on-going expectation concerning the solar dynamic/-AO correlation, all bode well for cold stormy weather nerds. that's pretty much my seasonal outlook in jumbled sentence. hurricanes: i saw a paper presented by FSU that discussed the atlantic basin correlation of recurving cyclones to an ensuing +NAO phase. ...one thing i find fascinating and perhaps fitting, we have had 2 seasons in a row where the predictions were spun BIG but managed the numbers only in a whimper of characteristic, having less boldly recurving cyclones despite the numbers. what have we had up N?? predominatly -NAO cold seasons. wow that is incredible that having 0 apparent physical connection these disparate atmospheric domains seem dependent on one another. intuitively, one may think that dumping latent heat flux into the mid and ua medium would trigger a +height response and -NAO in actuality ... sensible, but that 's not how it works. what actually happes is the influx destablizes the polar vortex nodes and causes them to intensify - probably via some quasi-convective processes. this steepens their core heights, contracts the latitude of the westerlies in the mean ...+AO. anyway, we are here again with an AMO-centric heated forecast for activity, it will be interesting to see what the recurve statistics look like relative to normal behavior, and if it is perhaps pre-ordained to be minimal due to the on-going -AO/-NAO as intimated in the previous paragraph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 just looking over the data from operatonal to teleconnectors going back over the last couple days ... don't bother with weather. enthusiasm and forecasting efforts pretty much are futile - you could take the last month's weather and just use that, and you'd win the nobel prize grades. the on-going synoptics are locked in a pattern persistence that has 0 means to change...perhaps right through until the next cold season digs in and creates gradient for that matter. that's the problem with summer, and why i feel the pattern in April and May will tend to permote persistence more than not. the problem is, as the delta(gradient) goes less, the last available influence on the flow follows by newtonian physics in a sense: an object in motion will stay in motion until acted on by another force. ..April and May set this boringness into motion and since there are so few available forces in a seasonally weaked gradient capable of changing it, the summer gets stymied for change. june 1 was an excitable exception to the boring rule, but i think with a heat node aloft in the MV, and a weakness locally, that "somewhat" probablistically sets us up for SW flows under NW flow/helicity scenarios and that particular day just cashed in. haven't seen that since, but may yet... those would be this summer's only hope it would seem. can't say it's all that bad though - boring, yeah, "bad"? not really... this really has been 3 stellar days in a row here with topico outdoor condition for after work strolls, runs, gardening, cook-outs...etc. we just have to - hopefully - avoid this nagging NE weakness from succeeding in causing a 4 day NE flow regim again. that deal last week just about bested the worst pattern i can recall in the 30 years i've live up in this part of the country. the longevitiy of it ...yeah, wasn't too absurd at only 4 days, but just the "didn't want it" ism of it had no bounds, yet unrelenting. some fraction of my fun in a day is the fresh expectation of seeing the teleonnector modalities and how the operational runs fit into them; that whole aspect had to be canceled for 4 days. the only recourse was to completely check-out and abandon operational Meteorology as an interest for 1 week. stolen. hopefully now that that apex of the summer heights/thickness is climotologically nearing said weakness will be less successful at regiming us up the ya-zoo. the up-shot here is that autumn is the time of the year that the dial is reset unilaterally... subtle changes in solar flux/oceanic kelvin wave behavior and there relationship (there is a growing science about the correlation between solar and ENSO) --> SST distribution from July 15 --> Sept/Oct tends to then lead the ENSO states, and those (this time) comebined with on-going expectation concerning the solar dynamic/-AO correlation, all bode well for cold stormy weather nerds. that's pretty much my seasonal outlook in jumbled sentence. hurricanes: i saw a paper presented by FSU that discussed the atlantic basin correlation of recurving cyclones to an ensuing +NAO phase. ...one thing i find fascinating and perhaps fitting, we have had 2 seasons in a row where the predictions were spun BIG but managed the numbers only in a whimper of characteristic, having less boldly recurving cyclones despite the numbers. what have we had up N?? predominatly -NAO cold seasons. wow that is incredible that having 0 apparent physical connection these disparate atmospheric domains seem dependent on one another. intuitively, one may think that dumping latent heat flux into the mid and ua medium would trigger a +height response and -NAO in actuality ... sensible, but that 's not how it works. what actually happes is the influx destablizes the polar vortex nodes and causes them to intensify - probably via some quasi-convective processes. this steepens their core heights, contracts the latitude of the westerlies in the mean ...+AO. anyway, we are here again with an AMO-centric heated forecast for activity, it will be interesting to see what the recurve statistics look like relative to normal behavior, and if it is perhaps pre-ordained to be minimal due to the on-going -AO/-NAO as intimated in the previous paragraph. tossing multiple fenway franks in your general direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 just looking over the data from operatonal to teleconnectors going back over the last couple days ... don't bother with weather. enthusiasm and forecasting efforts pretty much are futile - you could take the last month's weather and just use that, and you'd win the nobel prize grades. the on-going synoptics are locked in a pattern persistence that has 0 means to change...perhaps right through until the next cold season digs in and creates gradient for that matter. that's the problem with summer, and why i feel the pattern in April and May will tend to permote persistence more than not. the problem is, as the delta(gradient) goes less, the last available influence on the flow follows by newtonian physics in a sense: an object in motion will stay in motion until acted on by another force. ..April and May set this boringness into motion and since there are so few available forces in a seasonally weaked gradient capable of changing it, the summer gets stymied for change. june 1 was an excitable exception to the boring rule, but i think with a heat node aloft in the MV, and a weakness locally, that "somewhat" probablistically sets us up for SW flows under NW flow/helicity scenarios and that particular day just cashed in. haven't seen that since, but may yet... those would be this summer's only hope it would seem. can't say it's all that bad though - boring, yeah, "bad"? not really... this really has been 3 stellar days in a row here with topico outdoor condition for after work strolls, runs, gardening, cook-outs...etc. we just have to - hopefully - avoid this nagging NE weakness from succeeding in causing a 4 day NE flow regim again. that deal last week just about bested the worst pattern i can recall in the 30 years i've live up in this part of the country. the longevitiy of it ...yeah, wasn't too absurd at only 4 days, but just the "didn't want it" ism of it had no bounds, yet unrelenting. some fraction of my fun in a day is the fresh expectation of seeing the teleonnector modalities and how the operational runs fit into them; that whole aspect had to be canceled for 4 days. the only recourse was to completely check-out and abandon operational Meteorology as an interest for 1 week. stolen. hopefully now that that apex of the summer heights/thickness is climotologically nearing said weakness will be less successful at regiming us up the ya-zoo. the up-shot here is that autumn is the time of the year that the dial is reset unilaterally... subtle changes in solar flux/oceanic kelvin wave behavior and there relationship (there is a growing science about the correlation between solar and ENSO) --> SST distribution from July 15 --> Sept/Oct tends to then lead the ENSO states, and those (this time) comebined with on-going expectation concerning the solar dynamic/-AO correlation, all bode well for cold stormy weather nerds. that's pretty much my seasonal outlook in jumbled sentence. hurricanes: i saw a paper presented by FSU that discussed the atlantic basin correlation of recurving cyclones to an ensuing +NAO phase. ...one thing i find fascinating and perhaps fitting, we have had 2 seasons in a row where the predictions were spun BIG but managed the numbers only in a whimper of characteristic, having less boldly recurving cyclones despite the numbers. what have we had up N?? predominatly -NAO cold seasons. wow that is incredible that having 0 apparent physical connection these disparate atmospheric domains seem dependent on one another. intuitively, one may think that dumping latent heat flux into the mid and ua medium would trigger a +height response and -NAO in actuality ... sensible, but that 's not how it works. what actually happes is the influx destablizes the polar vortex nodes and causes them to intensify - probably via some quasi-convective processes. this steepens their core heights, contracts the latitude of the westerlies in the mean ...+AO. anyway, we are here again with an AMO-centric heated forecast for activity, it will be interesting to see what the recurve statistics look like relative to normal behavior, and if it is perhaps pre-ordained to be minimal due to the on-going -AO/-NAO as intimated in the previous paragraph. I think a +NAO is more conducive to landfalls along the East Coast (thinking a FL or NC type deal). The reason being is that you would have a ridge to the south of the +NAO trough and this would help steer storm into the US. Strong -NAO's usually produce troughing over the northeast which has steered many a storm out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Man this weekend looks great up north. Maybe a little tstm action later Saturday Night, but overall looks awesome in the Whites. Glad the worries from earlier in the week are gone. Remember, the more you spend the better the weather is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Remember, the more you spend the better the weather is here. I'll be sure to help out the local economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 I think a +NAO is more conducive to landfalls along the East Coast (thinking a FL or NC type deal). The reason being is that you would have a ridge to the south of the +NAO trough and this would help steer storm into the US. Strong -NAO's usually produce troughing over the northeast which has steered many a storm out to sea. The FSU paper is very controversial and fraught with discrepancies. Many dispute the methods and datasets. Tips intutive thinking is exactly the arguement against the Hart paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 One Day, One day left in the period, for 4 major climo sites in SNE for June. ORH-DPTR FM NORMAL: -0.1 BOS-DPTR FM NORMAL: -1.0 PVD-DPTR FM NORMAL: -0.3 BDL-DPTR FM NORMAL: 0.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 The FSU paper is very controversial and fraught with discrepancies. Many dispute the methods and datasets. Tips intutive thinking is exactly the arguement against the Hart paper. I never read this FSU paper. Did it say a -NAO was more conducive for east coast hits? Much of this seems hard to prove. Not only are teleconnections sometimes not relevant in the summer.....it also depends on where these storms develop. You obviously have a much higher recurve chance when storms are Cape Verde type deals. I mean, some deep cutoff could form in the lower OH valley..no matter what the NAO signal is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 I never read this FSU paper. Did it say a -NAO was more conducive for east coast hits? Much of this seems hard to prove. Not only are teleconnections sometimes not relevant in the summer.....it also depends on where these storms develop. You obviously have a much higher recurve chance when storms are Cape Verde type deals. I mean, some deep cutoff could form in the lower OH valley..no matter what the NAO signal is. If a sufficient number of TCs recurve, the midlatitude baroclinic eddies will necessarily be weaker come winter since there is less potential energy to utilize for baroclinic development. In such a situation, midlatitude winter climate will be warmer, on average. If a small number of TCs recurve, the midlatitude baroclinic eddies will necessarily be stronger come winter since there is more potential energy to utilize for baroclinic development. These conclusions all argue that the consequence of poleward moving TCs is surprisingly long-lived. http://ams.confex.com/ams/27Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_108931.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 One Day, One day left in the period, for 4 major climo sites in SNE for June. ORH-DPTR FM NORMAL: -0.1 BOS-DPTR FM NORMAL: -1.0 PVD-DPTR FM NORMAL: -0.3 BDL-DPTR FM NORMAL: 0.1 Farther north much the same, with one outlier. BGR is about -2.0, while CON, PWM, CAR all apear to be in the -0.2 to -0.4 range. Today's temps should average within a couple degrees of normal at all these locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 If a sufficient number of TCs recurve, the midlatitude baroclinic eddies will necessarily be weaker come winter since there is less potential energy to utilize for baroclinic development. In such a situation, midlatitude winter climate will be warmer, on average. If a small number of TCs recurve, the midlatitude baroclinic eddies will necessarily be stronger come winter since there is more potential energy to utilize for baroclinic development. These conclusions all argue that the consequence of poleward moving TCs is surprisingly long-lived. http://ams.confex.co...aper_108931.htm I certainly don't have the background that Hart has, but I have a few questions right off the bat. I've seen that article before. It's interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Farther north much the same, with one outlier. BGR is about -2.0, while CON, PWM, CAR all apear to be in the -0.2 to -0.4 range. Today's temps should average within a couple degrees of normal at all these locations. Looks like ORH will be negative as they are only at 72 with a low of 60 so far, so three out of 4, with all your stations, pretty impressive. Could be a precursor to winter with BDR and BDL as positives LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 GFS backed off on the magnitude of the trough on the 4th, but still seems to pull through a front later Sunday. Maybe this is more of a humidity front (keeping it dry) for most people, but it assures no torches I think. The holiday could be quite lovely here on the plateau west of the HV. Yesterday was a day following a fropa with a nw wind and while many in SNE still pushed 80 (Pete excepted) I held in the mid/upper 60's all day. 70 and sunny (wisps of cirrus), breezy and real dry now. This is perfect wx to me from a comfort perspective, but a wee bit too boring.... Loks like ORH will be negative as they are only at 72 with a low of 60 so far, so three out of 4, with all your stations, pretty impressive. Could be a precursor to winter with BDR and BDL as positives LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM MCS CLUSTERS ROLLING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE MEAN RIDGE ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. THE MAIN FOCUS COULD SHIFT FARTHER S INTO THE TN VLY AND CAROLINAS DAYS 5-7 IF A MEAN UPPER TROF BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE E COAST. ...Code for, 'if you live in the NE, you get no weather ' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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