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agree, but some of the bufkits the day before 12/19 were large. NAM was showing close to 30 inches in bufkit and even the GFS was going nutty.

Well I would say to someone who actually believed the BUFKIT snow algorithms...shame on them. They are frequently completely unrealistic.

But as mentioned before, the models did overdo the heavy snow on the northern side of the steady precip. The dry air did affect the totals. NYC probably could have had 16-20" with maybe some 2 foot jackpot areas versus the 10-14 that they got.

I still think though even if that storm had given 3" of snow, it would have not been worse than the Mar '01 bust.

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Well I would say to someone who actually believed the BUFKIT snow algorithms...shame on them. They are frequently completely unrealistic.

But as mentioned before, the models did overdo the heavy snow on the northern side of the steady precip. The dry air did affect the totals. NYC probably could have had 16-20" with maybe some 2 foot jackpot areas versus the 10-14 that they got.

I still think though even if that storm had given 3" of snow, it would have not been worse than the Mar '01 bust.

GFS is more believable than the NAM especially when not using the weenie algorithms.

And agree again, hard to be worse than March '01. That had days and days of build up with end of the world predictions that didn't come close to being true for the nyc metro.

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I didn't think it was that close to totally whiffing NYC. It had some dry air eating away at it, but you were still safely in the big snow by 50 miles. There was expected to be a sharp cutoff in that. The models did overestimate the snow though on the northern edge of the heavy stuff.

March '01 had 2-3 feet predicted 24 hours out for a lot of NYC metro and what fell, 4-6 inches of slop? LI got into some heavy stuff on the deformation band and NW NJ did decent too, but that bust was terrible. I'm not sure how bad the meltdowns on the board would be if that storm happened today...probably off the charts.

March 2001 set the standard for a bust in winter storms.... went from predicted feet of snow for new york city only to have inches like you said....paul kocin was really putting emphasis when he was at the weather channel saying it was gonna be historic and shut down the city I remember it like it was yesterday, really do not want to think what this board would be like if that happened now.......bans and suspensions galore lol

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March 2001 set the standard for a bust in winter storms.... went from predicted feet of snow for new york city only to have inches like you said....paul kocin was really putting emphasis when he was at the weather channel saying it was gonna be historic and shut down the city I remember it like it was yesterday, really do not want to think what this board would be like if that happened now.......bans and suspensions galore lol

if there is ever a storm to suspend the rules, that was it.

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People here talk about FEB 6th 2010,but as painful as it was to watch,we were never in the game for heavy snow.The GFS had us getting 6 inches,but other models had the snow-no snow line good 3 days before the event.DEC 19 was just abysmal,one of the worst model performances of all time.Had that storm missed us the fallout from it would have been worse than MARCH 2001 I believe.

I think the Euro also had NYC getting 6-12 inches of snow. I ended up with 3 inches from the Feb 6th event. My aunt in SI received 7 inches.:lightning:

The worst model performance has to be the Boxing day storm. The GFS and Euro were going back and forth on the storm.

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One winter I did like was 2008-09.I was expecting a crappy winter and was pleasantly suprised.We had the cold JAN,a multitude of 1-3.......2-4 inch storms from 12/19 to early FEB,we had a break where many thought winter maight be over,then we had the decent March storm.for SOME of us as not everyone got hit with moderate amounts.

I thought that winter was a decent winter. We had a lot of nickel and dime events in January. The storm on March 2 was a nice treat. I received 10 inches from that storm.

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People here talk about FEB 6th 2010,but as painful as it was to watch,we were never in the game for heavy snow.The GFS had us getting 6 inches,but other models had the snow-no snow line good 3 days before the event.DEC 19 was just abysmal,one of the worst model performances of all time.Had that storm missed us the fallout from it would have been worse than MARCH 2001 I believe.

It's not about it being expected as much as how close the heavy snow was. People don't realize that you could actually go on a long walk and end up in very heavy snow.

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He was talking about 1/13-14/08.

I had a feeling that storm wasn't going to pan out because we had to rely on dynamics. The GFS kept on insisting the storm bombing out near the benchmark. The storm bombed out near SNE and missed the NYC area.

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Guest Pamela

That's another storm that doesnt even rank for me. Days and days of tracking and back to back to back to back to abck Bufkit output sof 20-40 inches and the storm was junk save for portions of the island. Way too much dry air , miserable WAA, a very fast mover, ugly snow growth. I would rank the norlun event last year or even the February surprise storm last year better than 12/19/2009. It was all hype and no bite.

Without question, one of the greatest Long Island snowstorms...

000

NOUS41 KOKX 212010 CCA

PNSOKX

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-221200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...SUMMARY...CORRECTED

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

308 PM EST MON DEC 21 2009

THE FOLLOWING IS THE FINAL REPORT OF UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE

WEEKEND SNOWSTORM. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOP

OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS...THE PUBLIC...AND THE MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS.

THESE REPORTS ARE FOR INFORMATIONAL USE ONLY. REPORTS FROM COOPERATIVE

OBSERVERS...FAA CONTRACT OBSERVERS...CENTRAL PARK...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE SENT TO THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER FOR

VALIDATION.

THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS

SNOWFALL OF

(INCHES) MEASUREMENT

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...

EAST PATCHOGUE 27.5 1200 PM 12/20 PUBLIC

BROOKHAVEN VILLAGE 27.0 1000 PM 12/20 PUBLIC

MASTIC 26.5 938 AM 12/20 PUBLIC

UPTON 26.3 156 PM 12/20 NWS OFFICE

BELLPORT 26.0 1100 PM 12/20 PUBLIC

HOLTSVILLE 25.0 900 AM 12/20 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MOUNT SINAI 25.0 1115 AM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

BRIDGEHAMPTON 25.0 100 PM 12/20 COOP

FLANDERS 25.0 1100 PM 12/20 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MEDFORD 24.5 700 PM 12/20 PUBLIC

EAST SETAUKET 24.0 705 AM 12/20 SKYWARN SPOTTER

NORTH BABYLON 24.0 258 PM 12/20 SKYWARN SPOTTER

NORTH PATCHOGUE 24.0 1000 AM 12/20 PUBLIC

PATCHOGUE 24.0 335 PM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

ISLIP 23.9 100 PM 12/20 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

STONY BROOK 23.7 940 AM 12/20 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MIDDLE ISLAND 23.5 1100 AM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

BAY SHORE 23.0 1000 AM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

SOUTHAMPTON 23.0 900 AM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

ORIENT 22.0 500 PM 12/20 PUBLIC

WEST ISLIP 21.5 100 PM 12/20 PUBLIC

CENTEREACH 21.0 1000 AM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

MANORVILLE 21.0 130 PM 12/20 PUBLIC

RIVERHEAD 21.0 930 AM 12/20 SKYWARN SPOTTER

RONKONKOMA 20.5 949 AM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

CUTCHOGUE 20.0 1147 AM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

SAG HARBOR 20.0 730 AM 12/20 SKYWARN SPOTTER

HAUPPAUGE 20.0 100 PM 12/20 PUBLIC

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I had a feeling that storm wasn't going to pan out because we had to rely on dynamics. The GFS kept on insisting the storm bombing out near the benchmark. The storm bombed out near SNE and missed the NYC area.

It was 45 degrees that day with no cold air to be found and an se wind.

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Without question, one of the greatest Long Island snowstorms...

000

NOUS41 KOKX 212010 CCA

PNSOKX

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-221200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...SUMMARY...CORRECTED

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

308 PM EST MON DEC 21 2009

THE FOLLOWING IS THE FINAL REPORT OF UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE

WEEKEND SNOWSTORM. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOP

OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS...THE PUBLIC...AND THE MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS.

THESE REPORTS ARE FOR INFORMATIONAL USE ONLY. REPORTS FROM COOPERATIVE

OBSERVERS...FAA CONTRACT OBSERVERS...CENTRAL PARK...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE SENT TO THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER FOR

VALIDATION.

THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS

SNOWFALL OF

(INCHES) MEASUREMENT

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...

EAST PATCHOGUE 27.5 1200 PM 12/20 PUBLIC

BROOKHAVEN VILLAGE 27.0 1000 PM 12/20 PUBLIC

MASTIC 26.5 938 AM 12/20 PUBLIC

UPTON 26.3 156 PM 12/20 NWS OFFICE

BELLPORT 26.0 1100 PM 12/20 PUBLIC

HOLTSVILLE 25.0 900 AM 12/20 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MOUNT SINAI 25.0 1115 AM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

BRIDGEHAMPTON 25.0 100 PM 12/20 COOP

FLANDERS 25.0 1100 PM 12/20 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MEDFORD 24.5 700 PM 12/20 PUBLIC

EAST SETAUKET 24.0 705 AM 12/20 SKYWARN SPOTTER

NORTH BABYLON 24.0 258 PM 12/20 SKYWARN SPOTTER

NORTH PATCHOGUE 24.0 1000 AM 12/20 PUBLIC

PATCHOGUE 24.0 335 PM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

ISLIP 23.9 100 PM 12/20 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

STONY BROOK 23.7 940 AM 12/20 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MIDDLE ISLAND 23.5 1100 AM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

BAY SHORE 23.0 1000 AM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

SOUTHAMPTON 23.0 900 AM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

ORIENT 22.0 500 PM 12/20 PUBLIC

WEST ISLIP 21.5 100 PM 12/20 PUBLIC

CENTEREACH 21.0 1000 AM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

MANORVILLE 21.0 130 PM 12/20 PUBLIC

RIVERHEAD 21.0 930 AM 12/20 SKYWARN SPOTTER

RONKONKOMA 20.5 949 AM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

CUTCHOGUE 20.0 1147 AM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

SAG HARBOR 20.0 730 AM 12/20 SKYWARN SPOTTER

HAUPPAUGE 20.0 100 PM 12/20 PUBLIC

AGREE, out that way. A huge dissapointment for everyone else. But tell me, did it really feel like a huge storm? Did it shut anything down out there? I never heard of any real disruptions from the storm.

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Without question, one of the greatest Long Island snowstorms...

000

NOUS41 KOKX 212010 CCA

PNSOKX

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-221200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...SUMMARY...CORRECTED

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

308 PM EST MON DEC 21 2009

THE FOLLOWING IS THE FINAL REPORT OF UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE

WEEKEND SNOWSTORM. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOP

OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS...THE PUBLIC...AND THE MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS.

THESE REPORTS ARE FOR INFORMATIONAL USE ONLY. REPORTS FROM COOPERATIVE

OBSERVERS...FAA CONTRACT OBSERVERS...CENTRAL PARK...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE SENT TO THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER FOR

VALIDATION.

THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS

SNOWFALL OF

(INCHES) MEASUREMENT

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...

EAST PATCHOGUE 27.5 1200 PM 12/20 PUBLIC

BROOKHAVEN VILLAGE 27.0 1000 PM 12/20 PUBLIC

MASTIC 26.5 938 AM 12/20 PUBLIC

UPTON 26.3 156 PM 12/20 NWS OFFICE

BELLPORT 26.0 1100 PM 12/20 PUBLIC

HOLTSVILLE 25.0 900 AM 12/20 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MOUNT SINAI 25.0 1115 AM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

BRIDGEHAMPTON 25.0 100 PM 12/20 COOP

FLANDERS 25.0 1100 PM 12/20 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MEDFORD 24.5 700 PM 12/20 PUBLIC

EAST SETAUKET 24.0 705 AM 12/20 SKYWARN SPOTTER

NORTH BABYLON 24.0 258 PM 12/20 SKYWARN SPOTTER

NORTH PATCHOGUE 24.0 1000 AM 12/20 PUBLIC

PATCHOGUE 24.0 335 PM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

ISLIP 23.9 100 PM 12/20 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

STONY BROOK 23.7 940 AM 12/20 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MIDDLE ISLAND 23.5 1100 AM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

BAY SHORE 23.0 1000 AM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

SOUTHAMPTON 23.0 900 AM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

ORIENT 22.0 500 PM 12/20 PUBLIC

WEST ISLIP 21.5 100 PM 12/20 PUBLIC

CENTEREACH 21.0 1000 AM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

MANORVILLE 21.0 130 PM 12/20 PUBLIC

RIVERHEAD 21.0 930 AM 12/20 SKYWARN SPOTTER

RONKONKOMA 20.5 949 AM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

CUTCHOGUE 20.0 1147 AM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

SAG HARBOR 20.0 730 AM 12/20 SKYWARN SPOTTER

HAUPPAUGE 20.0 100 PM 12/20 PUBLIC

Yes, but I would amend that to say one of the greatest Suffolk County snowstorms lol. Maybe the greatest since Jan 1996.

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I had a feeling that storm wasn't going to pan out because we had to rely on dynamics. The GFS kept on insisting the storm bombing out near the benchmark. The storm bombed out near SNE and missed the NYC area.

We got a nice surprise snowstorm a month later that gave us 6-8 inches :)

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I thought that winter was a decent winter. We had a lot of nickel and dime events in January. The storm on March 2 was a nice treat. I received 10 inches from that storm.

Early Feb was decent in 09, we got a nice surprise storm that gave us 4-6 inches of snow and up to 8-10 in Philly which was originally supposed to cut to our west, then a strong shot of Arctic air that got us in the mid single digits and FOK was around -15 for two nights in a row lol and then we had the big warm up into the upper 60s. Winter made a brief return in late Feb and early March before leaving altogether.

That early March storm should have been better than it was. We got about 10 inches here but most of the area had like 6-8.... we were originally supposed to get 10-20.

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Guest Pamela

AGREE, out that way. A huge dissapointment for everyone else. But tell me, did it really feel like a huge storm? Did it shut anything down out there? I never heard of any real disruptions from the storm.

Things never seem to get shut down anymore a la Feb 6, 1978 in Massachusetts...it snowed for around 12 - 14 hours..almost all at night...intensity of the snowfall rivaled Feb. 1983...which means it was exceptional...but you have a point...it probably will not be mentioned in legend and lore like '78...1/ because it was quick and at night...2/ a Saturday morning...3/ much better plowing 33 years later...4/ much less wind...5/ so many other large storms in the 2009 - 2011 timeframe...

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Things never seem to get shut down anymore a la Feb 6, 1978 in Massachusetts...it snowed for around 12 - 14 hours..almost all at night...intensity of the snowfall rivaled Feb. 1983...which means it was exceptional...but you have a point...it probably will not be mentioned in legend and lore like '78...1/ because it was quick and at night...2/ a Saturday morning...3/ much better plowing 33 years later...4/ much less wind...5/ so many other large storms in the 2009 - 2011 timeframe...

Things were pretty much shut down in Jan 1996 lol-- I could not get into the city for a week

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Guest Pamela

Things never seem to get shut down anymore a la Feb 6, 1978 in Massachusetts...it snowed for around 12 - 14 hours..almost all at night...intensity of the snowfall rivaled Feb. 1983...which means it was exceptional...but you have a point...it probably will not be mentioned in legend and lore like '78...1/ because it was quick and at night...2/ a Saturday morning...3/ much better plowing 33 years later...4/ much less wind...5/ so many other large storms in the 2009 - 2011 timeframe...

Of the 7 major snowstorms in the March 2009 - January 2011 period, the 1/11/11 storm was probably the second best out on L.I....at least in my neck of the woods...with north central L.I. approaching 20" and southern CT approaching 30"...January 2011 is the greatest winter month I have observed on Long Island...and I think only February 1934 can rival it....

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Things never seem to get shut down anymore a la Feb 6, 1978 in Massachusetts...it snowed for around 12 - 14 hours..almost all at night...intensity of the snowfall rivaled Feb. 1983...which means it was exceptional...but you have a point...it probably will not be mentioned in legend and lore like '78...1/ because it was quick and at night...2/ a Saturday morning...3/ much better plowing 33 years later...4/ much less wind...5/ so many other large storms in the 2009 - 2011 timeframe...

2/78 probably has yet to be matched anyway for the coverage of 30"+ snows within a high population density corridor like PVD to BOS metro along I-95, only perhaps '96 in some spots. So its hard to get disruption similar to it. Also, as you mentioned, the wind was exceptional and time of day made it optimal for huge problems...it started in mid to late morning after everyone was at work.

1996 had similar disruption, especially down around Philly and parts of NJ where the highest amounts occurred. I know for IMBY, December 1992 was like that with everything shutdown for nearly a week...but obviously it wasn't widespread with the 30"+ snowfall.

Your other point is valid too, 1978 was over 30 years ago. We have better planning and plowing now. '78 caught a lot of people off guard. One of the keys I've learned when looking at which snowstorms really crippled roadways and created the most problems...the time of day the storm strikes. Almost all of the epic "impact" snowstorms start after everyone is at work/school and they ramp up very quickly before people can get home. The effect becomes two-fold...obviously more people are impacted travel-wise, and secondly, the snow removal is hampered when you have traffic jams. A heavy snowfall from 11pm to 6am is so much easier for road crews to keep up with versus rush hour in afternoon when the roads are clogged.

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2/78 probably has yet to be matched anyway for the coverage of 30"+ snows within a high population density corridor like PVD to BOS metro along I-95, only perhaps '96 in some spots. So its hard to get disruption similar to it. Also, as you mentioned, the wind was exceptional and time of day made it optimal for huge problems...it started in mid to late morning after everyone was at work.

1996 had similar disruption, especially down around Philly and parts of NJ where the highest amounts occurred. I know for IMBY, December 1992 was like that with everything shutdown for nearly a week...but obviously it wasn't widespread with the 30"+ snowfall.

Your other point is valid too, 1978 was over 30 years ago. We have better planning and plowing now. '78 caught a lot of people off guard. One of the keys I've learned when looking at which snowstorms really crippled roadways and created the most problems...the time of day the storm strikes. Almost all of the epic "impact" snowstorms start after everyone is at work/school and they ramp up very quickly before people can get home. The effect becomes two-fold...obviously more people are impacted travel-wise, and secondly, the snow removal is hampered when you have traffic jams. A heavy snowfall from 11pm to 6am is so much easier for road crews to keep up with versus rush hour in afternoon when the roads are clogged.

1/1996 definitely crippled us, mass transit systems were shut down for about a week, and Im still convinced that was under measured, I believe we all had 2 feet plus of snow (32" was measured in Bay Shore, Long Island, but I believe the entire area got over 2 feet when looking at old pictures and the width and expanse of the snow, which was greater than PD2 which was measured at 28" here)-- and the drifts were unbelievable, up over the first story of houses here-- its the first and only time I actually felt like I was living in the swiss alps!

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