ag3 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 I hope the Euro model is wrong where if we don't have heat I rather have average temps or just slightly below average with low humidity oppose to abnormal cool weather it is showing. It's probably wrong. It's previous runs were showing several 90 degree days and now at 12z it's showing abnormally below average temps. Models are erratic past day 5. Whether it be for heat, cold or storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Sounds perfect to me. Bring it on. I can't comprehend why folks would rather have 90's and high humidity over 80-85 with low humidity and sunny skies. What about the latter scenario isn't good beach or outdoor weather in the summertime? How about 95-102 with low humidity and north winds.... that's the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 How about 95-102 with low humidity and north winds.... that's the best There's a reason why last summer is rare and a record breaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 There's a reason why last summer is rare and a record breaker. I don't think we will get see it this year. I am more hoping for 75-80 F with low humidy mixed with 86-92 F with high humidity and a chance of thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 There's a reason why last summer is rare and a record breaker. I know but low humidity heat is the best kind of weather in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 I know but low humidity heat is the best kind of weather in the summer. Low humidity does feel the most confortable weather for sure I must say. At the same time if you want thunderstorms and severe weather then you need higher humidity ahead of it then of course when the cold front comes low humidity comes behind it. The worse thing I hate is dry frontal passages or just getting boring rain showers. Every summer you will deal with them when the either bad instabilty or timing like on June 1. And last year there was lot of dry frontal passages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 How about 95-102 with low humidity and north winds.... that's the best Hopefully, the trend towards a low solar minimum will continue and keep temps. down in all seasons(way down in the winter, and I don't have a problem with 75-80 with low humidity in July or Aug.). http://www.mi2g.com/cgi/mi2g/frameset.php?pageid=http%3A//www.mi2g.com/cgi/mi2g/press/120110.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Low humidity does feel the most confortable weather for sure I must say. At the same time if you want thunderstorms and severe weather then you need higher humidity ahead of it then of course when the cold front comes low humidity comes behind it. The worse thing I hate is dry frontal passages or just getting boring rain showers. Every summer you will deal with them when the either bad instabilty or timing like on June 1. And last year there was lot of dry frontal passages. I thought last year was really good for severe weather-- NYC had like 3 tornado warnings lol. Dont forget that macroburst and how much damage that caused. Last summer was an ideal mix of heat and severe weather-- I really dont think it can get any better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Hopefully, the trend towards a low solar minimum will continue and keep temps. down in all seasons(way down in the winter, and I don't have a problem with 75-80 with low humidity in July or Aug.). http://www.mi2g.com/...ress/120110.php Low solar minimum would effect our winters much more than our summers. Note that even after Pinatubo erupted we had a huge summer in 1993 and then a really cold winter in 1993-94. Our heat in the summer depends much more on wind direction than how active the sun is. Downsloping gives us a +10 F boost in temps on westerly winds. Another great example is 1983 when we had a scorching summer after El Chichon erupted and the following winter of 1983-84 was bitterly cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 I thought last year was really good for severe weather-- NYC had like 3 tornado warnings lol. Dont forget that macroburst and how much damage that caused. Last summer was an ideal mix of heat and severe weather-- I really dont think it can get any better than that. I have to admit 3 tornado warnings (including the Macroburst) in NYC and 1 additional tornado warning on top of that in Bergen county (right in my hometown actually) was incredible. However it is atypical and we'll likely not see something like that again for a LONG time. As far as low humidity and temperatures in the upper 90's like it was at times last summer around here, it was unique, rare and interesting for this area no doubt but if i wanted that I'd live in Vegas or Arizona, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 I have to admit 3 tornado warnings in NYC and 1 additional tornado warning on top of that in Bergen county (right in my hometown actually) was incredible. However it is atypical and we'll likely not see something like that for a LONG time. As far as low humidity and temperatures in the upper 90's like it was at times last summer around here, it was unique, rare and interesting for this area no doubt but if i wanted that I'd live in Vegas or Arizona, lol. Yeah, I remember saying before I want Phoenix summers (just shave about 10 degrees off the temps.... Im not crazy lol) and Flagstaff winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 I thought last year was really good for severe weather-- NYC had like 3 tornado warnings lol. Dont forget that macroburst and how much damage that caused. Last summer was an ideal mix of heat and severe weather-- I really dont think it can get any better than that. [/quote July was good month but August my area was the screwzone but September made for up it including the outbreak with macroburst and tornadoes in Brooklyn and Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Interesting to note NAO/AO observations have been well below fcst over the past few weeks. Projections from mid June for a +NAO/AO surge in the first week of July will bust badly, as the NAO/AO look to persist in a moderately negative state. This is probably why we're seeing guidance back off the Northeast heat wave -- more directed towards the OH/TN valleys into the midddle atlantic states swd. RIC/RDU should torch to 100F for a few days, while PHL northeast probably struggles to reach heat wave qualifications. Saturday should be the hottest day, with NWLY flow rim of fire convection for the 3rd/4th. Still a near/above normal temp regime but no prolonged torches in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 lol, boy did the 12z euro quiet this thread down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 I really hope the 12z euro model overdoing the cool air because with 4 C of 850 that would mean highs in the 60's to near 70 F with sun and clouds and leading then eventually cold rainy days with highs in the 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 I really hope the 12z euro model overdoing the cool air because with 4 C of 850 that would mean highs in the 60's to near 70 F with sun and clouds and leading then eventually cold rainy days with highs in the 60's. It's a brisk NW downsloping flow so probably gets a bit warmer than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 SE Canada stays active on the 00z gfs. Doesnt matter, mid 80's with sun is a great pattern to be stuck in our area for July. Nothing will cool us down into the 70's for highs unless its raining or we have complete cloud cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 I will take 80's any day and even mid to upper 70's too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Interesting to note NAO/AO observations have been well below fcst over the past few weeks. Projections from mid June for a +NAO/AO surge in the first week of July will bust badly, as the NAO/AO look to persist in a moderately negative state. This is probably why we're seeing guidance back off the Northeast heat wave -- more directed towards the OH/TN valleys into the midddle atlantic states swd. RIC/RDU should torch to 100F for a few days, while PHL northeast probably struggles to reach heat wave qualifications. Saturday should be the hottest day, with NWLY flow rim of fire convection for the 3rd/4th. Still a near/above normal temp regime but no prolonged torches in sight. Real nice write up. This has been the story since june 1st. Any long range threats of heat need to be taken with a grain of salt. I wonder if we have seen our hottest days in june? Weekend looks wonderful, above avg but comfortable. Last year was so hot and humid made it miserable if you where at a party with no pool. Man last summer it seem every map 10 days in advance showing heat came tru. Sarcus never busted with those anomalies map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Those temps and lows would yield +4 to +8 or more departures. I believe the average high is mid to upper 80's in July, especially if we go by the 1981-2010 normals. I did'nt look at the lows. The bottom line is that this is no surprise, our summers have been and will coninue to heat up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 0z euro backed off on the very below temps the 12z euro showed. 0z shows a normal pattern thru day 10, with a couple shots of low 90's. No sustained heat waves but still average to above average temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Real nice write up. This has been the story since june 1st. Any long range threats of heat need to be taken with a grain of salt. I wonder if we have seen our hottest days in june? Weekend looks wonderful, above avg but comfortable. Last year was so hot and humid made it miserable if you where at a party with no pool. Man last summer it seem every map 10 days in advance showing heat came tru. Sarcus never busted with those anomalies map Busted low if anything last year. It does look like the week will feature normal to above normal temps, overall with very limited or no significant heat north of DC. I wouldnt rule out a few 90 degree readings within the 7/2 - 7/9 period. Also guidance hints at trough digging back into the west coast with a chance the ridge does build east in the 7/10 - 7/14 period. Overall I'd say we ride the plus side of avg through the middle of July then we'll see if we can get into stronger postives the second half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 12z NAM temps thru Sunday for NYC: Today: 84 Fri: 82 Sat: 82 Sunday: 79 Most forecasts are calling for 90 on Saturday and Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 The gfs sure is persistent with the heat extending into the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 GFS is still several degrees hotter then NAM for the weekend. NAM is 79 for Sunday and the GFS is 87. GFS after this is seasonable high of 82-87 for the rest of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 lol, boy did the 12z euro quiet this thread down. lol you're right.. It's very close to having a strong SW flow if the trough is depicted wrong.. but the ensembles don't support the op.. 12z GFS came in pretty warm/humid for period. Nothing record breaking but certainly close to heat wave definitions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 lol you're right.. It's very close to having a strong SW flow if the trough is depicted wrong.. but the ensembles don't support the op.. 12z GFS came in pretty warm/humid for period. Nothing record breaking but certainly close to heat wave definitions Where? I just looked at the 12z GFS soundings and the warmest day is Sunday, which is 87 degrees. After this, the highs range from as low as 80 to as high as 87. And thats right thru fantasy range of day 10. Matches euro very well now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 GFS is still several degrees hotter then NAM for the weekend. NAM is 79 for Sunday and the GFS is 87. GFS after this is seasonable high of 82-87 for the rest of the week. What did they have for today? Was there any difference in temps forecasted? Maybe we can find out who's wrong for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 What did they have for today? Was there any difference in temps forecasted? Maybe we can find out who's wrong for Sunday. NAM verified closer for yesterday and today. There's a thread in the main forum of how the GFS has major temperature errors lately (way too warm), with statistical proof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 NAM verified closer for yesterday and today. There's a thread in the main forum of how the GFS has major temperature errors lately (way too warm), with statistical proof. It was probably just fine with EWR and JFK. No one really cares about NYC because it's in its own microclimate that is not realistic with new york city proper and LGA is on the sound so not very representative either. Im sure most of the 5 boros were much closer to EWR and JFK temps yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.