earthlight Posted June 28, 2011 Author Share Posted June 28, 2011 sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 welcome back summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Just got back from VA...man was it hot there. Im never going to complain about the heat up here, its brutal there...feel bad for all those people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 0z GFS MEX Guidance... Looks as if the 90 degree threshold will be met for approx 5 days.. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KAVP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 29, 2011 Author Share Posted June 29, 2011 Latest GFS MEX for EWR Thu 85 Fri 89 Sat 89 Sun 93 Mon 92 Tue 90 Wed 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Latest GFS MEX for EWR Thu 85 Fri 89 Sat 89 Sun 93 Mon 92 Tue 90 Wed 90 Temps like hose are average to slightly above for July especialy if we consider 1981-2010 normals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Temps like hose are average to slightly above for July especialy if we consider 1981-2010 normals. Those temps and lows would yield +4 to +8 or more departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 sweet 0z Euro for the same time period. Pretty similar setup. But colder 850's then the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 0z GFS is similar to euro: 6z GFS is another step and very similar to euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Heat in July, shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 It's interesting that the heat seems to be staying longer and longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 29, 2011 Author Share Posted June 29, 2011 It's interesting that the heat seems to be staying longer and longer. the models are really struggling with the upper level trough over central and southeast Canada. until that's resolved, we can't fully tell where the patterns going. It's definitely going to yield above normal departures, regardless, it's just a matter of how anomalous the heat will be..and the positioning of that upper level trough has a big piece in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 the models are really struggling with the upper level trough over central and southeast Canada. until that's resolved, we can't fully tell where the patterns going. It's definitely going to yield above normal departures, regardless, it's just a matter of how anomalous the heat will be..and the positioning of that upper level trough has a big piece in that. The models usually back off the extreme 850s as we approach, especially the Euro which has a real tendency to overdo the heat in the long-range. It's going to be hard to get 20C 850s well into Quebec, as earlier runs showed, with the core of the ridge only around 588dm and a 546dm weakness to our northeast over the Canadian Maritimes. This set-up doesn't scream historic heat to me with a -NAO and 50/50 configuration. Probably several days of low 90s for NYC metro, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 12z NAM temps for NYC, for the next few days: Today: High of 83 Fri: High of 81 Saturday: High of 82 Sunday: High of 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Heat in July, shocking. I honestly can't wait until it's January and you are posting about a cold wave or a snowstorm. Because my answer to your snide comment just there would be to say "Snow in January.. Shocking." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 The GFS made a move in the direction of the Euro.It's not as strong with the ridge as it was yesterday. 12 UTC yesterday 12 UTC today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 I honestly can't wait until it's January and you are posting about a cold wave or a snowstorm. Because my answer to your snide comment just there would be to say "Snow in January.. Shocking." Go on ahead, that's fine but if there is whining coming from the Pennsylvania folks again like there was last year about how they are continually getting screwed out of snow again, expect little to no sympathy if these are the types of comments that will be redirected at the NYC/NJ area folks further to your east come winter time. We all have the right here to express displeasure about heat waves just as much as the folks posting here that love to pump up the idea of heat waves. The same applies to cold and snow in the winter. I think most would admit though sustained cold and snow in this region is not commonplace while sustained heat in the summers is quite the norm moreso than not. So sustained heat waves in summertime is not all that eye-opening in this region when compared to winters that have sustained cold and snow which explains TheTrials "snide" comment as you called it not being all that snide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 12z GFS backed down from prolonged heat. It has Sunday as the hottest day with temps in the upper 80's. 4th of July is seasonable with highs of 82-85 and it extends that into next Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 You are right about one thing... There was a lot whining coming from the PA folks(myself included) about getting left out of snow. I won't do that this year. It's stupid and didn't make it snow anymore here. However I will disagree that sustained heat is commonplace. It's not. Cold and snow and more commonplace then the heat is. But I guess that's a matter of interpretation. I personally like the heat/humid conditions. Take care of how a great day bud! Go on ahead, that's fine but if there is whining coming from the Pennsylvania folks again like there was last year about how they are continually getting screwed out of snow again, expect little to no sympathy if these are the types of comments that will be redirected at the NYC/NJ area folks further to your east come winter time. We all have the right here to express displeasure about heat waves just as much as the folks posting here that love to pump up the idea of heat waves. The same applies to cold and snow in the winter. I think most would admit though sustained cold and snow in this region is not commonplace while sustained heat in the summers is quite the norm moreso than not. So sustained heat waves in summertime is not all that eye-opening in this region when compared to winters that have sustained cold and snow which explains TheTrials "snide" comment as you called it not being all that snide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 You are right about one thing... There was a lot whining coming from the PA folks(myself included) about getting left out of snow. I won't do that this year. It's stupid and didn't make it snow anymore here. However I will disagree that sustained heat is commonplace. It's not. Cold and snow and more commonplace then the heat is. But I guess that's a matter of interpretation. I personally like the heat/humid conditions. Take care of how a great day bud! I guess out your way that may be the case (Believe me I know. My in-laws have a house in the Gouldsboro area of the Poconos so I can understand your perspective) but not out this way IMHO. All interpretation and perspective as you mentioned. Enjoy your day as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 No talk about the 12z euro? It looks like it took away all the big heat thru day 8. Like the GFS, its warm for 1 day, Saturday, and then temps go back to mid 80's and lower thru next Wednesday with a couple of rain chances as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 No talk about the 12z euro? It looks like it took away all the big heat thru day 8. Like the GFS, its warm for 1 day, Saturday, and then temps go back to mid 80's and lower thru next Wednesday with a couple of rain chances as well. Gets really cool at the end with a fall-like trough moving in Day 9/10 dropping 850s to 4C. Weakness off the coast keeps heights below 580dm over the weekend, then a cooldown Monday/Tuesday, with potential for a bigger cool shot later on. Not bad for July. Overall, it looks as if the summer's pattern will continue with no sustained heat, but a few above average days mixed in. To be honest, I'm enjoying this summer...it's just so normal and pleasant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Gets really cool at the end with a fall-like trough moving in Day 9/10 dropping 850s to 4C. Weakness off the coast keeps heights below 580dm over the weekend, then a cooldown Monday/Tuesday, with potential for a bigger cool shot later on. Not bad for July. Overall, it looks as if the summer's pattern will continue with no sustained heat, but a few above average days mixed in. To be honest, I'm enjoying this summer...it's just so normal and pleasant. I assume the euro has a pimarily north wind throughout this run? Because if this is true we should also have low humidity making the upcoming stretch a very pleasant summer experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Gets really cool at the end with a fall-like trough moving in Day 9/10 dropping 850s to 4C. Weakness off the coast keeps heights below 580dm over the weekend, then a cooldown Monday/Tuesday, with potential for a bigger cool shot later on. Not bad for July. Overall, it looks as if the summer's pattern will continue with no sustained heat, but a few above average days mixed in. To be honest, I'm enjoying this summer...it's just so normal and pleasant. Yeah. Its a pretty dramatic shift, compared to its previous 5-6 runs. We will be told very soon to stop looking at day 7-10 euro. Will be interesting to see the next few runs, to see if today's run has caught on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 I assume the euro has a pimarily north wind throughout this run? Because if this is true we should also have low humidity making the upcoming stretch a very pleasant summer experience. It looks muggy over the weekend and early next week. Temps dont look hot, but judging by 700rh charts, it looks humid and muggy. After this period, euro goes to a very below average pattern, as Nzucker points out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Wow. LOL. Its the euro in fantasy range (as it is when it shows heat) but wow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Yeah. Its a pretty dramatic shift, compared to its previous 5-6 runs. We will be told very soon to stop looking at day 7-10 euro. Will be interesting to see the next few runs, to see if today's run has caught on to something. Exactly, but when it shows insane heat at that time range it is spot on and should be written in stone as a lock to happen, lol. It is only one run, we will see what transpires as we get closer of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 I assume the euro has a pimarily north wind throughout this run? Because if this is true we should also have low humidity making the upcoming stretch a very pleasant summer experience. Sounds perfect to me. Bring it on. I can't comprehend why folks would rather have 90's and high humidity over 80-85 with low humidity and sunny skies. What about the latter scenario isn't good beach or outdoor weather in the summertime? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 So far no support from the ensembles for the amplified OP Euro long range solution. The Euro likes to overdo it with those big closed lows near the end its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 I hope the Euro model is wrong where if we don't have heat I rather have average temps or just slightly below average with low humidity oppose to abnormal cool weather it is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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