SACRUS Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 I'll be in Ocean City this weekend, so hopefully the ULL doesn't get there if it does occur. GFS starts building in the Atlantic ridge (Bermuda High) by the middle of that week and it looks quite summery on/around the 7th before the next trough digs in around the 9th then more ridging after that, Now thats way into the future but if the gfs was to be believed we have nice heat 7/1 - 7/3 with more showers and storms the 4th - 6th then more warmth and heat 7th - 9th. Looks like a back and forth pattern shaping up, biased warm with only clouds and showers preventing any above normal departures. No real sustained heat yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 GFS starts building in the Atlantic ridge (Bermuda High) by the middle of that week and it looks quite summery on/around the 7th before the next trough digs in around the 9th then more ridging after that, Now thats way into the future but if the gfs was to be believed we have nice heat 7/1 - 7/3 with more showers and storms the 4th - 6th then more warmth and heat 7th - 9th. Looks like a back and forth pattern shaping up, biased warm with only clouds and showers preventing any above normal departures. No real sustained heat yet... I doubt we'll ever see sustained heat this summer, not going to be that type of year. Short 2-3 day spurts of heat yes, but then quickly back to near normal given the upper ridge position in the SW US/Southern plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 The blocking to the north has really been a constant for the July the last several years and earlier. Each of the years featured variable ridge positions across the North Pacific and the rest of North America giving us our temperature pattern.The blocking forecast for the start of July fits right into the pattern that we have been seeing. Forecast July 2008 July 2009 July 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Love seeing the blocking hold on during the summer months, suspect it will erode towards august into september and october to come back towards the end of october towards winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Except for one run which showed two days of heat, the Euro has been consistent in saying that the high heat from the mid-section never makes it into NYC and the northeast. Today's run continues the theme of average heat and humidity for a couple of days over the holiday weekend and then cooler the following work week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 I doubt we'll ever see sustained heat this summer, not going to be that type of year. Short 2-3 day spurts of heat yes, but then quickly back to near normal given the upper ridge position in the SW US/Southern plains. Hopefully it does come this weekend-the heat earlier this month was brutal around Midtown. Outside the urban jungles, it becomes more bearable in general. As for this one-it looks "backdoory" with some kind of trough feature remaining over NNE/Maritimes. Hopefully that weakens and lifts out so the westerly flow can dominate. Otherwise it could be quite ordinary temp-wise and maybe even cold if there's some kind of oceanic flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 The Euro had 850 temps over 32 C in South Dakota The models don't seem to be wanting to back down on this. The 18z NAM has H85 temps of around 34C in western South Dakota by Wednesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Love seeing the blocking hold on during the summer months, suspect it will erode towards august into september and october to come back towards the end of october towards winter! yeah ever since 2009 the NAO has been consistantly negative..and somehow we pulled off a scorcher last summer..maybe its solar related. this may be good if it continues into the next few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 26, 2011 Author Share Posted June 26, 2011 DGEX two days in the 90's..not bad...looks to be baking in Ocean City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 DGEX two days in the 90's..not bad...looks to be baking in Ocean City Meh, looks like upper 80s here...not impressive for July. Heat has been a huge underperformer this summer; it looked as if we'd finish June >+3F, and now most stations in the Northeast are just slightly above normal, with some areas of Eastern New England below average for the month from the marine layer...Central Park should finish around +1.5F I'd guess after another fairly cool day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Meh, looks like upper 80s here...not impressive for July. Heat has been a huge underperformer this summer; it looked as if we'd finish June >+3F, and now most stations in the Northeast are just slightly above normal, with some areas of Eastern New England below average for the month from the marine layer...Central Park should finish around +1.5F I'd guess after another fairly cool day today. I think the models this summer have overdone the length of the heat. Its gonna get hot again, but it just can't stick as we get back into some kind of troughiness. Last summer had real sustained heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 I think the models this summer have overdone the length of the heat. Its gonna get hot again, but it just can't stick as we get back into some kind of troughiness. Last summer had real sustained heat. I think we'll see some hot days around July 2-4...both the GFS and ECM have at least one day with >16C 850s, but the models have seriously backed off the duration and intensity of the warm-up. The 12z Euro was probably the coolest run to date...most of us might see one or two days in the upper 80s, but nothing earth-shattering. It's almost July now: 16C 850s are pretty run-of-the-mill. We just don't have the right pattern for heat with a -NAO, weakness in the jet over Quebec with NW flow aloft, and cooler global temperatures than last summer. We're still getting some very crisp airmasses from time to time, and the 12z ECM looks to bring another one in for after July 4th with a big vortex sitting over Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 anyone know whats going on in the tropics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 anyone know whats going on in the tropics? we get it. earthlights town is warm. no need to harp on it and call it names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 we get it. earthlights town is warm. no need to harp on it and call it names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 anyone know whats going on in the tropics? lame for now as usual. June is always boring. July too. I hope the east coast gets a Gloria esque or a Isabel esque beast this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 lame for now as usual. June is always boring. July too. I hope the east coast gets a Gloria esque or a Isabel esque beast this year. May-July are the worst months for a weather enthusiast: too late for snow, too early for tropics, way too early to get a handle on next winter, fall still too far off to generate excitement. Also, our severe weather season is mainly mid-June through mid-September, so the first half of this period doesn't even have good thunderstorm threats. Nice string of cool/comfortable summer days...here are the high temperatures from Tarrytown, which runs slightly warmer than I do: June 26: 79.1F June 25: 80.9F June 24: 68.9F June 23: 72.0F June 22: 78.3F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Wonderul weather the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 May-July are the worst months for a weather enthusiast: too late for snow, too early for tropics, way too early to get a handle on next winter, fall still too far off to generate excitement. Also, our severe weather season is mainly mid-June through mid-September, so the first half of this period doesn't even have good thunderstorm threats. Nice string of cool/comfortable summer days...here are the high temperatures from Tarrytown, which runs slightly warmer than I do: June 26: 79.1F June 25: 80.9F June 24: 68.9F June 23: 72.0F June 22: 78.3F No way, July is the best time for true weather lovers, outside of winter, because we get to experience some of our greatest heat waves-- the second week of July is a veritable who's who of historic weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Peeked at 6z GFS. It appears it now has no big heat. Has temps reaching the low 90's for a couple days, but overall, it appears a more zonal flow with normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Peeked at 6z GFS. It appears it now has no big heat. Has temps reaching the low 90's for a couple days, but overall, it appears a more zonal flow with normal temps. trough beats down the heat ridge when it tries to get into the area. Two days of warmth, but not heat wave. Wash rinse repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 no comment on the euro? lol... keep looking at your off hour gfs for comfort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 not great scores, but the gfs consistently loses to the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 no comment on the euro? lol... keep looking at your off hour gfs for comfort ???? Simply posting what GFS shows. I dont get the sarcasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 ???? Simply posting what GFS shows. I dont get the sarcasm. we can look at it ourselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Thru hour 168, euro never has the 20c 850 temp line thru NYC. Is the heat after this period? Warmest period on non-fantasy range of euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 we can look at it ourselves well, if we follow this logic, then there is no point in having any weather discussions or posting any maps since in theory everything can be looked at for ourselves. You are probably just messing with AG3, but on the off chance you are not, please go back and mock all the dgex images and the "off-hour" runs of the gfs that earthlight and others post when they show warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Only major heat on 0z run of euro is in super fantasy range, day 10. Warmest period before this, is a couple days in the low 90's around day 5-7 with most days 83-88 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Thru hour 168, euro never has the 20c 850 temp line thru NYC. Is the heat after this period? Warmest period on non-fantasy range of euro: with sunshine, that setup would be mid 90s. look at the thicknesses and surface winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 with sunshine, that setup would be mid 90s. look at the thicknesses and surface winds Hence why I said couple days in the low 90's, around day 5-7, same as GFS. After this period, around day 9-10, the euro shows major heat. But as with any season, that is way out of the range of any model. 1 storm can change the entire setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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