A-L-E-X Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Nothing better than a fourth of july heatwave. Nothing worse than a cool/cloudy and rainy one. 2003 had heat into July 4th then the summer was mainly humid.. That was the big blackout summer! Black out on the hottest day of the year, in August, when it hit 96 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 you would have loved 1966...I was in the Catskills and came home that day...The drive home was delayed by highway bucklings from the heat... typical scorch summer followed by a snowy winter lol.... love that hot/dry combo. JFK was probably like heaven that summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 I agree about 2008, very forgetable, except I do recall the 3 day heat spell in early June. 2009 I remember clearly b/c we barely got any pool time before the 4th of July (clouds/fog) and July was more September like. Probably the worst summer I've experienced. 2008 also had a week long heatwave in mid July between the 15th and 22nd with July +1.5 at EWR. Agree about 2009 (awful!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 I havent seen the 18z gfs but the 12z was clearly hotter than the morning runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 25, 2011 Author Share Posted June 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 There are too many factors that will keep the heat south and west of NYC again for the 6/30 to 7/4 time period. My prediction is for 50s for Boston and 60's for NYC while it is upper 90's for Philly to DC. I bet there will be a 30-35 degree difference between NYC and PHL next weekend. Reasons for this: -NAO and -AO holding on 1025 mb plus high near Greenland, exact repeat pattern again. Massive Positive pressure field for more backdoor action. With same pattern in place, all of the models are over estimating the warmth tremendously for NYC and Boston. The stalled front between the heat and mP airmass will be a 40 north problem, not a 44-45 north problem per the models. You'll see the models cool significantly north of 40 north as time moves closer. Again cloudy and cool for another extended period. The NAO rise is too small to justify the upper air maps for the next hot period in big question. It will still be negative with strong Greenland high response. DCA and PHL could have +15 degree departures while NYC and BOS have -20 degree departures. Probably could be a moderate risk SVR day for 37-40 north corridor with nill north of 40 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 why isnt this guy banned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Lol. There will be scattered snow showers in the tri state area north of say Sandy Hook and there will be a classic heat wave on the fourth of July south of say Trenton. Mike you may not be totally wrong but 50s and 60s with 90s in Philly? WTF when's the last time that happened? Come on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 There are too many factors that will keep the heat south and west of NYC again for the 6/30 to 7/4 time period. My prediction is for 50s for Boston and 60's for NYC while it is upper 90's for Philly to DC. I bet there will be a 30-35 degree difference between NYC and PHL next weekend. Reasons for this: -NAO and -AO holding on 1025 mb plus high near Greenland, exact repeat pattern again. Massive Positive pressure field for more backdoor action. With same pattern in place, all of the models are over estimating the warmth tremendously for NYC and Boston. The stalled front between the heat and mP airmass will be a 40 north problem, not a 44-45 north problem per the models. You'll see the models cool significantly north of 40 north as time moves closer. Again cloudy and cool for another extended period. The NAO rise is too small to justify the upper air maps for the next hot period in big question. It will still be negative with strong Greenland high response. DCA and PHL could have +15 degree departures while NYC and BOS have -20 degree departures. Probably could be a moderate risk SVR day for 37-40 north corridor with nill north of 40 north. Dude, do you have any idea how many times your predictions have failed over the past year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 why isnt this guy banned I wouldn't normally say this, but I second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Lol. There will be scattered snow showers in the tri state area north of say Sandy Hook and there will be a classic heat wave on the fourth of July south of say Trenton. Mike you may not be totally wrong but 50s and 60s with 90s in Philly? WTF when's the last time that happened? Come on now. Not justifying his call but yesterday afternoon we where in the upper 60 and phl was close to 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Not justifying his call but yesterday afternoon we where in the upper 60 and phl was close to 90 I understand but his example was even more extreme than that. Up to 35 degree spread? Thy would mean we are around 60 and Philly is in the mid 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 I understand but his example was even more extreme than that. Up to 35 degree spread? Thy would mean we are around 60 and Philly is in the mid 90s. Yeah I understand ur point. I was not justifying his spread. Last january during that 3-5 inch storm I believe we where in 30's and u think cape may got into the 60's. Unless that obs was a typo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 25, 2011 Author Share Posted June 25, 2011 Last nights Euro was another big torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Looks like a torch next weekend 90's and humidity, however weekness might pull thru on the 4th and cool us off..2 or 3 day heatwave as of now http://weatherisland.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 25, 2011 Author Share Posted June 25, 2011 12z GGEM in agreement with last nights Euro...hot...so it would seem the cooler GFS is at odds with the other globals. New Euro in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 John, last nights euro was a torch but it turned it into a transient, 2-3 day thing. All previous runs were sustained heat ridge. The 0z run 2 nights ago, was a long heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 25, 2011 Author Share Posted June 25, 2011 John, last nights euro was a torch but it turned it into a transient, 2-3 day thing. All previous runs were sustained heat ridge. The 0z run 2 nights ago, was a long heat wave. Yeah, I posted yesterday (i think it was yesterday, not sure), about how the initial burst could become transient but I think eventually the hawaiian ridge persistence working with the nao transition will force a big ridge into the CONUS. The models have definitely trended away from a week long historic heat wave..but it is definitely safe to say that the below normal departures are over with for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 25, 2011 Author Share Posted June 25, 2011 850 temps are close to 24 C on the Euro at 186 hrs. Shortwave approaching from the northwest...but the pattern is somewhat zonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Yeah, I posted yesterday (i think it was yesterday, not sure), about how the initial burst could become transient but I think eventually the hawaiian ridge persistence working with the nao transition will force a big ridge into the CONUS. The models have definitely trended away from a week long historic heat wave..but it is definitely safe to say that the below normal departures are over with for a while. I don't know. I wouldn't go against the seasonal trend. Couple shots of extreme warmth followed by sustained normal to some well below normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 I don't know. I wouldn't go against the seasonal trend. Couple shots of extreme warmth followed by sustained normal to some well below normal temps. Yeah, I think thats what this summer will continue to be like. Big warmth, but short lived, followed by troughiness and storms, then days like today, then wash rinse repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 I don't know. I wouldn't go against the seasonal trend. Couple shots of extreme warmth followed by sustained normal to some well below normal temps. Agree that extreme warmth should be short-lived, but I don't think there will be many well below normal temp days. IMO most of July will be characterized by high humidity and most days in the 80s (near normal). We will get spurts of big heat but nothing sustained like last summer. Also nothing like July 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Also nothing like July 2009. Hey! That is to never be mentioned again! Damnit! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Nice maps bluewave. One can see a very similar upper pattern in the north atlantic w/ the -NAO signature, and the higher heights off the West Coast, trough somewhere in between. This June has featured a more impressive warm anomaly for the nation as a whole comared to 2008, likely due in part to the excessive drought that's been ongoing across the southern Plains and SE US. Very similar nationally to 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Very similar nationally to 2008. Precipitation maps should be much drier in the south west this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 if we get a 2nd year nina like 08-09, its gonna be barely measurable, which should make the following winter better than 08-09 which started out good but went to sleep end of January through February. The few SW flow events in December were ok but I am never a big fan of those. EDIT, sorry, OT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 26, 2011 Author Share Posted June 26, 2011 Major flip on the GFS with a very warm pattern in place for the 4th weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 26, 2011 Author Share Posted June 26, 2011 ULL returns thereafter as the PNA goes positive on the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 this is looking more and more like a quick shot of heat following what we have seen most of this summer. We can't shake these ULL, even in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 26, 2011 Author Share Posted June 26, 2011 this is looking more and more like a quick shot of heat following what we have seen most of this summer. We can't shake these ULL, even in July. I'll be in Ocean City this weekend, so hopefully the ULL doesn't get there if it does occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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