nzucker Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 I like the day 7 period..but we're going to have to see what happens with the ULL over Southeast Canada. That seems to be a major player right not amongst the global guidance, with some of them retrograding it south and west underneath the remnant NAO block. I wouldn't call it highly likely--but if it does happen, it would keep the heat at bay for at least a few more days. The 06z GFS kicked it out and built the ridge http://www.meteo.psu...AVN_6z/f180.gif the 06z DGEX did not http://www.meteo.psu...AST_6z/f186.gif Yeah there's some good high pressure in Quebec that will fight the heat. I think eventually the heat wins, but it might not arrive until the cold front is almost here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 I like the day 7 period..but we're going to have to see what happens with the ULL over Southeast Canada. That seems to be a major player right not amongst the global guidance, with some of them retrograding it south and west underneath the remnant NAO block. I wouldn't call it highly likely--but if it does happen, it would keep the heat at bay for at least a few more days. The 06z GFS kicked it out and built the ridge http://www.meteo.psu...AVN_6z/f180.gif the 06z DGEX did not http://www.meteo.psu...AST_6z/f186.gif Cant see euro soundings past day 7, but just looking at the ewall maps of upper level data, it definitely appears that euro unleashes some of the heat towards the northeast and unlike late May and early June and then 2-3 days in mid-June, this time it appears the heat is a little more sustained. Not just a transient heat on the front side of a cutter. Of course we need to watch for features like ULLs and surface low formations, that can completely change position of the ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Good post, but I don't think this will be transient. I think it will last most of the month, except in New England and the northern tier of the country. The Central Plains will bake all month long though. I mean look at some of the departures currently in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas -- there's places that are 8 to 13 degrees above normal this month. The new normal??? The extreme temp anomalies you reference are confined to a relatively small area of NW TX/W OK. There is only a very tiny area with 10+ anomalies. Certainly impressive...but of course you think most the country will bake like this next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 The new normal??? The extreme temp anomalies you reference are confined to a relatively small area of NW TX/W OK. There is only a very tiny area with 10+ anomalies. Certainly impressive...but of course you think most the country will bake like this next month. Yeah, the anomalies he referenced were certainly extreme. I think there's still plenty of support for this ejecting northeast, though. It's just a matter of time. Historically this is a good set up for this part of the country, too..when we have a hot airmass over the South/Central Plains for an extended period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Just wait till the hot atlantic SSTs get a hold of this. They definitely will not be letting that ridge go back west. The trend in the long range ensembles recently has been to get rid of the -PNA pattern that has dominated the last couple months. This would lead to more ridging along the west coast, which is generally not a good pattern for east coast heat. I think the most likely scenario is a major heatwave for the plains/Midwest for the end of June, a relatively brief and somewhat moderated heatwave for the mid-Atlantic/Northeast right after (though you could see a day or two of big-time heat), and then more muted/normal temperatures for the eastern half of the country following that. Here are the 12z GFS 6-10 day ensembles, showing the -PNA holding on and heat in the Midwest. And then the 11-15 day, showing +PNA building in and moderated temperatures in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Yeah, the anomalies he referenced were certainly extreme. I think there's still plenty of support for this ejecting northeast, though. It's just a matter of time. Historically this is a good set up for this part of the country, too..when we have a hot airmass over the South/Central Plains for an extended period of time. After today and the next few days, NYC will probably be under +2 anomaly. Do you know what the anomaly is thru yesterday for the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 After today and the next few days, NYC will probably be under +2 anomaly. Do you know what the anomaly is thru yesterday for the month? +1.7 through yesterday. http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=NY&prodtype=climate#CF6NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 +1.7 through yesterday. http://www.weather.g...=climate#CF6NYC Wow. So already under a +2 for the month. Pretty crazy after the extreme heat we had for a few days. Is it possible NYC finishes negative for the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Wow. So already under a +2 for the month. Pretty crazy after the extreme heat we had for a few days. Is it possible NYC finishes negative for the month? I don't think so....it looks pretty warm after today. Today should put up a nice negative anomaly...currently 69/66 in Central Park, NE winds @9mph, shouldn't rise too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 I don't think so....it looks pretty warm after today. Today should put up a nice negative anomaly...currently 69/66 in Central Park, NE winds @9mph, shouldn't rise too much. NYC averages 81-83 over the next 6 days of June. Temps over the next 6 days, dont look overly warm. 80-87 degrees as highs, it appears for the remainder of the month. What would todays low temps do to the +1.7? Say todays high was only 72 and a low of 65? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 NYC averages 81-83 over the next 6 days of June. Temps over the next 6 days, dont look overly warm. 80-87 degrees as highs, it appears for the remainder of the month. What would todays low temps do to the +1.7? Say todays high was only 72 and a low of 65? 72/65 is like -5 for the day....that is only going to reduce the monthly anomaly by a couple tenths. Temps look about normal the next week, NYC finishes near +1.5F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 12z Euro looks all out heat wavet for July 4th weekend. This is just by 12z next Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 I don't think so....it looks pretty warm after today. Today should put up a nice negative anomaly...currently 69/66 in Central Park, NE winds @9mph, shouldn't rise too much. Yeah, the rest of June looks near to slightly above normal temp wise. Generally low to mid 80s with maybe a couple 85+ days mid next week. I went +2 to +3 for June in NYC for my summer outlook, but right now it looks +1 to +2 may have been a better call. We'll see, it's probably going to be in that +1.5 to +2 range to finish June. July I thought 0 to +1, and still believe that looks good, which is very warm month ahead considering normals are now approaching 85. As for the early July heat release, should be 2008-like again IMO, a 2-3 day deal. However I think maximum temps could be more widespread upper 90s+ rather than mid 90s with the isolated 100. The axis of the upper ridge will probably position itself in the core of the drought-ridden areas of Texas, NM, AZ, meaning only occasional pulses of extreme heat will reach the Northeast, as there's a weakness in the jet, w/ short waves embedded in a nwly flow aloft over the lakes/NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Lets hope this heat gets in here soon! I really need some sunny 90 degree weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 72/65 is like -5 for the day....that is only going to reduce the monthly anomaly by a couple tenths. Temps look about normal the next week, NYC finishes near +1.5F. Yeah, the rest of June looks near to slightly above normal temp wise. Generally low to mid 80s with maybe a couple 85+ days mid next week. I went +2 to +3 for June in NYC for my summer outlook, but right now it looks +1 to +2 may have been a better call. We'll see, it's probably going to be in that +1.5 to +2 range to finish June. July I thought 0 to +1, and still believe that looks good, which is very warm month ahead considering normals are now approaching 85. As for the early July heat release, should be 2008-like again IMO, a 2-3 day deal. However I think maximum temps could be more widespread upper 90s+ rather than mid 90s with the isolated 100. The axis of the upper ridge will probably position itself in the core of the drought-ridden areas of Texas, NM, AZ, meaning only occasional pulses of extreme heat will reach the Northeast, as there's a weakness in the jet, w/ short waves embedded in a nwly flow aloft over the lakes/NE. June 2008 was a really nice analog.We would have been close to +2 to +3 in the Park if the upper low under the block were just a little further to the east like 2008 giving us less onshore flow.You can see from these 500 mb anomaly charts how a small change would have given us warmer weather here. June 2011 so far June 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Yeah, the rest of June looks near to slightly above normal temp wise. Generally low to mid 80s with maybe a couple 85+ days mid next week. I went +2 to +3 for June in NYC for my summer outlook, but right now it looks +1 to +2 may have been a better call. We'll see, it's probably going to be in that +1.5 to +2 range to finish June. July I thought 0 to +1, and still believe that looks good, which is very warm month ahead considering normals are now approaching 85. As for the early July heat release, should be 2008-like again IMO, a 2-3 day deal. However I think maximum temps could be more widespread upper 90s+ rather than mid 90s with the isolated 100. The axis of the upper ridge will probably position itself in the core of the drought-ridden areas of Texas, NM, AZ, meaning only occasional pulses of extreme heat will reach the Northeast, as there's a weakness in the jet, w/ short waves embedded in a nwly flow aloft over the lakes/NE. To show you how boring of a summer that was I dont remember 2008 or 2009 in the slightest. I remember 1991 and 1993 much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 0z Euro unleashes the earthlight heat ridge day 7 and on. Looks super hot, as earthlight already detailed. And this time, it doesnt look like a 1 day heatwave (early June was only a 1 day heat wave-June 1st only). Heat returned a week after that in June. This is anecdotal but from what I remember, more times than not when we have a big heat wave around July 4th the summer ends up being hot with repeated heatwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Lets hope this heat gets in here soon! I really need some sunny 90 degree weather July 4th is the best time for super hot weather, Im hoping for a mega heat wave like we had around that time last year. The sun can bloat up to a giant for all I care as long as I get the heat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 12z Euro looks all out heat wavet for July 4th weekend. This is just by 12z next Sat Yeah, right. Hopefully, it won't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 This is anecdotal but from what I remember, more times than not when we have a big heat wave around July 4th the summer ends up being hot with repeated heatwaves. Yep.1988,1993,1995,1999,2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Yep.1988,1993,1995,1999,2002 Yup and add 1966 and 2010 to that list. I think we have the same phenomenon in winter when we have a cold and snowy late December-- usually the winter as a whole is cold and snowy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Yup and add 1966 and 2010 to that list. I think we have the same phenomenon in winter when we have a cold and snowy late December-- usually the winter as a whole is cold and snowy too. Nothing better than a fourth of july heatwave. Nothing worse than a cool/cloudy and rainy one. 2003 had heat into July 4th then the summer was mainly humid.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 25, 2011 Author Share Posted June 25, 2011 Euro is a total furnace next weekend...18z DGEX very similar through 180hr. Image below is Euro 850 temps on on Saturday Night (7/2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 the best weather I've experienced on the 4th of July was in 1965...It was a dry 90 for the high and 65 for the low... 4th weather... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/holidays/4thofjulywx.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 the best weather I've experienced on the 4th of July was in 1965...It was a dry 90 for the high and 65 for the low... 4th weather... http://www.erh.noaa....4thofjulywx.htm my favorite was 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Yup and add 1966 and 2010 to that list. I think we have the same phenomenon in winter when we have a cold and snowy late December-- usually the winter as a whole is cold and snowy too. these are the years with a hot 4th and snowfall for the following winter... 1872...94...60" 1876...94...40" 1879...94...23" 1883...94...43" 1898...96...56" 1911...97...30" 1921...95...28" 1949..102..14" 1955...97...34" 1957...93...45" 1966...98...52" 1974...95...13" 1983...95...25" 1990...93...25" 1993...95...53" 1999...96...16" 2002...96...50" 2003...92...43" 2010...96...63" 10 of 19 had 40" or more... 12 of 19 had 30" or more... 03 of 19 had less than 20"...Back in 2002 when we were having the 4th heat I made a post about when it's hot when it ought to be it will snow when it was supposed to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 June 2008 was a really nice analog.We would have been close to +2 to +3 in the Park if the upper low under the block were just a little further to the east like 2008 giving us less onshore flow.You can see from these 500 mb anomaly charts how a small change would have given us warmer weather here. June 2011 so far June 2008 Nice maps bluewave. One can see a very similar upper pattern in the north atlantic w/ the -NAO signature, and the higher heights off the West Coast, trough somewhere in between. This June has featured a more impressive warm anomaly for the nation as a whole comared to 2008, likely due in part to the excessive drought that's been ongoing across the southern Plains and SE US. Moving into July, we'll probably see a brief respite from the -NAO but then dive back into it for mid/late summer. A -NAO regime w/ the block hooking up to the SE ridge (usually happens by Aug-Sept) and a trough/weakness in the OH Valley is a conducive pattern for tropical cyclone activity along the east coast. I don't want to make any calls but my gut tells me this season will feature some tropical action in the metro area. I recall Ernesto in 2006, although only a TS, was quite a doozy on the Jersey shore. Hvy rains and frequent 45+mph gusts. Was at dinner in Pier Village during the event and the ocean-facing windows blew open, knocking my sister out of her chair and onto the floor. Anyway, 2008 definitely has been doing well as an analog thus far, and I'm sure many people here would appreciate the type of August it might produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 To show you how boring of a summer that was I dont remember 2008 or 2009 in the slightest. I remember 1991 and 1993 much better. I agree about 2008, very forgetable, except I do recall the 3 day heat spell in early June. 2009 I remember clearly b/c we barely got any pool time before the 4th of July (clouds/fog) and July was more September like. Probably the worst summer I've experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 my favorite was 99 you would have loved 1966...I was in the Catskills and came home that day...The drive home was delayed by highway bucklings from the heat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 you would have loved 1966...I was in the Catskills and came home that day...The drive home was delayed by highway bucklings from the heat... There were so many nice hot holiday's. Last year, 2002 were up there as well. Funny how newark is ahead of the park most days 90 - present and closely matches prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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