earthlight Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 The past several weeks have featured one of the most anomalous warm patterns of recent memory over the Central and Southern Plains, with 90 to 100 degree temperatures an almost non-stop event. See this latest 12z NAM run's temperatures for today (this has been going on for weeks). There is a severe drought in progress and the heat has been relatively bottled up since the last heat release a few weeks back. That being said, there are some very strong indications on most global means and superensembles that support another heat release; and the potential for well above normal departures. The rising NAO, coincident with a re-developing west coast trough and -PNA, will only add to the potential as the ridge will expand and develop northeast. Although some model runs over the past few days have shown this ridge meeting some resistance, one thing is clear on almost all of them: it's coming. It's just a matter of exactly when it happens. Today's runs of the GFS and ECMWF are much more bullish with the potential for widespread heat and temperatures once agian in the upper 90's and possibly higher. The Euro has a tremendous nation-wide hot zonal/westerly flow pattern developing around 180 hours and 850 temperatures exceed 20 C by next weekend. It means business, too...the heat release is strong enough to bring 850 temps over 32 C in the Northern Plains, Dakotas, and midwest! The GFS has warmed it's last few runs..but the real indication as to what's going down here is the ensemble mean. You can see the gold 594dm height contour closed off on a tremendous amount of the ensemble members..and not the operational..indicative of a rather large heat signal at this time frame. One thing's for sure..the pattern over Canada remains active--so the length of the heat may not be tremendous. That being said--it still may very well be oppressive and severe when the ridge does eventually bubble northeast later next week into next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 John, I agree mostly with what your saying. But with the AO/NAO running below GFS guidence recently, could the heat ridge be tempered enough to not verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 23, 2011 Author Share Posted June 23, 2011 Cool to mouseover the tail end of the first-period of the GFS run from 84 to 180 hours...tremendous signal as the ridge literally explodes. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 23, 2011 Author Share Posted June 23, 2011 John, I agree mostly with what your saying. But with the AO/NAO running below GFS guidence recently, could the heat ridge be tempered enough to not verify? If the GFS is under-estimating the length of time it will take for the -NAO to lose it's grip on the pattern..the heat will more likely be delayed than denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Good post, but I don't think this will be transient. I think it will last most of the month, except in New England and the northern tier of the country. The Central Plains will bake all month long though. I mean look at some of the departures currently in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas -- there's places that are 8 to 13 degrees above normal this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 I guess I am the only one looking forward to the heat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 no you are not...there are many others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 If the GFS is under-estimating the length of time it will take for the -NAO to lose it's grip on the pattern..the heat will more likely be delayed than denied. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Trend = Hot Given the persistence of summer like heat already, I'm convinced it will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Trend = Hot Given the persistence of summer like heat already, I'm convinced it will continue. The HeatMiser has spoken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 The HeatMiser has spoken. isotherm's and earthlight's second account Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 I wonder if this summer may end up like a lesser version of 2005 if the humid/high mins streak continues. Hopefully August doesn't cool down (I think August was the hottest month that summer?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Those 850 temps forecasted in the Midwest is absolutely insane. That looks like major record breaking heat if it verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Those 850 temps forecasted in the Midwest is absolutely insane. That looks like major record breaking heat if it verified It would be intriguing to see if we could compare this to past summers and see if we can find some sort of pattern with these kinds of heat releases and what they may portend for the rest of the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Those 850 temps forecasted in the Midwest is absolutely insane. That looks like major record breaking heat if it verified Yeah, I just checked the 00z GFS. Brings H85 temps to 28/29C all the way up to MSP for next Thursday! Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 The Euro had 850 temps over 32 C in South Dakota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 The Euro had 850 temps over 32 C in South Dakota Does it have the 27C H85 isotherm all the way up to International Falls though? Just crazy. That would probably be 100-105 all the way up to the border with Soviet Canuckistan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 The Euro had 850 temps over 32 C in South Dakota We're all gonna die. But seriously, that's impressive. Can it make its way east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 We're all gonna die. But seriously, that's impressive. Can it make its way east? Won't do it to that degree..but it will happen eventually. That's the way the atmosphere works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 We're all gonna die. But seriously, that's impressive. Can it make its way east? 0z GFS keeps most of the heat away from New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 The GFS actually brings the 30 C isotherm up to the Canadian border in North Dakota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 For the little that it's worth, the 18z DGEX showed a hot solution more akin to the 12z GFS and 12z Euro on it's latest run...heading towards major heat in that upper air pattern. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/f192.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Just wait till the hot atlantic SSTs get a hold of this. They definitely will not be letting that ridge go back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Just wait till the hot atlantic SSTs get a hold of this. They definitely will not be letting that ridge go back west. Lol. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 0z Euro unleashes the earthlight heat ridge day 7 and on. Looks super hot, as earthlight already detailed. And this time, it doesnt look like a 1 day heatwave (early June was only a 1 day heat wave-June 1st only). Heat returned a week after that in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Month of June for NYC: Just using high temps...Red (2+ degrees above normal) Blue (-2 degrees above normal) Black (within 2 degrees of normal) 1- 90 (average 76) 2- 81 (average 76) 3- 75 (average 76) 4- 75 (average 77) 5- 68 (average 77) 6- 82 (average 77) 7- 89 (average 77) 8- 97 (average 77) 9- 97 (average 78) 10-86 (average 78) 11-71 (average 78) 12-72 (average 78) 13-73 (average 79) 14-68 (average 79) 15-82 (average 79) 16-84 (average 80) 17-78 (average 80) 18-84 (average 80) 19-83 (average 80) 20-81 (average 80) 21-82 (average 81) 22-81 (average 81) 23-73 (average 81) Today looks well below average, so I will add today to the below average count. Above average - 11 of the 24 days Below average - 7 of the 24 days Average - 6 of the 24 days. So its a 50/50 month so far. 13 days are average to below average and 11 days are above average. A nice mix for the entire board. Both heat lovers and cold lovers, have had their share this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 since we are beginning the first week of calender Summer here are some of the hottest weeks and periods on record...July 7-13, 1993 is the hottest week I could find followed by July 15-21, 1977...last year's hottest week was July 4-10 but it didn't make the top ten hottest... Hottest seven day period... high low mean max .. 98.0 76.9 87.4 102 7/07-7/13 1993 98.4 76.3 87.4 104 7/15-7/21 1977 98.3 76.0 87.1 102 8/29-9/04 1953 95.1 78.9 87.0 .98. 8/05-8/11 1896 95.3 78.0 86.7 .99. 8/09-8/15 1988 96.6 75.1 85.9 102 8/11-8/17 1944 96.1 75.2 85.7 100 8/01-8/07 1955 95.3 75.9 85.6 103 8/04-8/10 2001 94.9 76.1 85.5 102 7/16-7/22 1980 97.3 73.6 85.4 102 7/17-7/23 1991 95.7 75.1 85.4 .98. 8/28-9/03 1973 94.1 76.7 85.4 .96. 7/12-7/18 1981 94.3 76.4 85.4 103 7/04-7/10 2010 95.4 75.1 85.3 100 7/17-7/23 1955 Hot periods... 6/21-7/14 1966...20 of 24 days 90 or higher... 7/04-7/20 1993...14 of 17 days 90 or higher... 7/29-8/19 2002...17 of 22 days 90 or higher... 7/23-8/17 1944...19 of 26 days 90 or higher... 7/12-7/23 1952...11 of 12 days 90 or higher... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 looks like July 4th weekend looks typical summertime..with hot humid weather..big question,does the torrid heat of the plains reach here? http://weatherisland.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 0z GFS keeps most of the heat away from New England. I don't care if the 90-100 stuff doesn't get in here. I just want this 58F and overcast on the middle of June 24th wx out of here. Anything above 75 is warm this time of year esp. if the sun is out. Looks like some beautiful temperatures in the low 80s starting Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 0z Euro unleashes the earthlight heat ridge day 7 and on. Looks super hot, as earthlight already detailed. And this time, it doesnt look like a 1 day heatwave (early June was only a 1 day heat wave-June 1st only). Heat returned a week after that in June. I like the day 7 period..but we're going to have to see what happens with the ULL over Southeast Canada. That seems to be a major player right not amongst the global guidance, with some of them retrograding it south and west underneath the remnant NAO block. I wouldn't call it highly likely--but if it does happen, it would keep the heat at bay for at least a few more days. The 06z GFS kicked it out and built the ridge http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_6z/f180.gif the 06z DGEX did not http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_6z/f186.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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