uncle W Posted September 6, 2011 Author Share Posted September 6, 2011 The Arctic Oscillation usually has a big roll to play in our winter weather...This list shows the winter's low AO index and what happened around the time it did... lowest daily winter ao value since 1950...I hope I didn't miss a date...Weather at the time for NYC... season.......value.....date..... 1949-50......-2.854.....3/15/50......1.4" 3/14...record cold the beginning of the month... 1950-51......-4.353.....12/27/50....3" snow 12/27 and 9 degrees...the biggest snow and coldest temperature of the winter... 1951-52......-3.805.....3/4/1952....4" snow 3/2... 1952-53......-3.766.....12/27/52....12 degrees is the coldest temp. of the season...4" snow 12/31... 1953-54......-3.495.....1/30/54......cold continues...Cold snowy January... 1954-55......-3.064.....1/4/55........cold continues... 1955-56......-4.564.....2/15/56......1.4" 2/17 and 2/22...Big March snows...KU... 1956-57......-4.473.....2/21/57......2.6" snow 3/1... 1957-58......-4.030.....3/11/58......snow storms 3/14 and 3/21...KU event... 1958-59......-4.026.....1/7/59........cold continues... 1959-60......-4.108.....1/28/60......18 degrees 2/3 is the coldest temp for Feb...Big March cold and snow...KU... 1960-61......-2.719.....1/10/61......greatest snowy and cold period followed 1/15-2/12...three KU's... 1961-62......-4.417.....3/4/62........record cold 3/2 and the Ash Wednesday storm 3/6... 1962-63......-5.010.....1/21/63......Near record cold 1/23 and 4" snow 1/26...Biggest snow of the season... 1963-64......-4.470.....12/20/63....1.4" 12/18...6.6" 12/23-24...11 degrees 12/20 coldest for that month...January Blizzard...KU... 1964-65......-3.973.....1/26/65......ice storm 1/24 and continued cold... 1965-66......-5.130.....1/28/66......8 degrees is the coldest temp. of the season 1/28...Ku storm 7" on 1/30... 1966-67......-4.147.....12/13/66....wet snow and rain 12/13-14 is the start of two weeks of snow and cold...7" snow 12/24-25... 1967-68......-3.490.....2/7/68........8 degrees 2/11...Cold and dry continues... 1968-69......-5.282.....2/13/69......17 degrees 2/17 is the coldest temp for the month...15" of snow 2/9-10...KU... 1969-70......-6.365.....3/5/70........20 degrees 3/10 coldest temp for the month...4" of snow 3/29... 1970-71......-2.821.....2/6/71........12 degrees max 2/2... 1971-72......-1.490.....1/1/72........14 degrees 1/6...1" snow 1/5... 1972-73......-2.044.....12/17/72...24 degrees max 12/17... 1973-74......-2.792.....12/19/73...big ice storm 12/16-17...17 degrees 12/19 is the coldest temp of the month... 1974-75......-1.695.....12/18/74...some minor cold in a mild month...one of the few times the weather was benign at the ao minimum... 1975-76......-3.262.....1/24/76......-1 degrees 1/23 is the coldest temp of the winter...1" of snow 1/23... 1976-77......-7.433.....1/15/77......-2 degrees on the 17th is the coldest temp of the winter...5" snow 1/14-15... 1977-78......-5.291.....2/5/78........10 degrees 2/5 is the coldest temperature of the season...18" snow 2/6-7...KU... 1978-79......-4.387.....1/25/79......Very cold and snowy February...KU... 1979-80......-3.705.....1/24/80......continued cold and dry...longest stretch of cold that winter... 1980-81......-4.318.....3/4/81........largest snowfall for the winter...8.6" 3/5... 1981-82......-3.804.....12/30/81...January 1982 was very cold and snowy... 1982-83......-3.410.....2/6/83........4" of snow 2/6 and 18" 2/11-12...KU... 1983-84......-3.706.....3/13/84......record cold 3/10...7" snow 3/8-9... 1984-85......-6.226.....1/19/85.....-2 degrees 1/21 is the coldest temperature that winter... 1985-86......-3.894......2/6/86.......4.5" of snow 2/7 and 2/11...Snowiest period of the winter... 1986-87......-3.507.....3/9/87........2" snow 3/12...Near record cold 3/10... 1987-88......-2.314.....2/28/88......0.6" 2/27 is the last measurable snow...Thawing after... 1988-89......-0.318.....3/4/89........2.5" 3/6 and near record cold 3/7... 1989-90......-3.482.....12/10/89...One of the coldest Decembers on record... 1990-91......-3.381.....3/9/91.......24 degrees 3/12...benign after that... 1991-92......-2.597.....12/4/91.....0.7" 12/5...benign after that... 1992-93......-2.228.....3/2/93.......Super storm 3/13...Near record cold followed...KU... 1993-94......-3.503.....2/24/94.....2.6" 2/23...12 degrees 2/27...Feb KU... 1994-95......-3.116.....3/9/95.......20 degrees 3/10 is the coldest temp for the month...KU in Feb... 1995-96......-4.353.....12/19/95...8" of snow during a very cold period...January blizzard..KU... 1996-97......-3.377.....12/30/96...11 degrees New Years Day.... 1997-98......-4.269.....1/10/98.....14 degrees New Years day...Coldest of the winter... 1998-99......-3.856.....3/10/99......5" snow 3/14-15...17 degrees 3/8 is the coldest temp for the month... 1999-00......-2.118.....2/18/00......3" snow and ice 2/22...KU in January... 2000-01......-4.854.....2/25/01......6" snow 2/22 and 17 degrees...coldest for the month... 2001-02......-3.293.....12/28/01...Coldest period of the winter followed but benign... 2002-03......-3.575.....1/22/03......7 degrees 1/24 is the coldest for the winter...KU in February... 2003-04......-4.387.....1/17/04......1 degree 1/16 is the coldest temp of the season...6" of snow 1/15...Dec. KU... 2004-05......-4.337.....2/26/05......6" of snow 2/25 and 8" 2/29...KU in January... 2005-06......-3.569.....12/5/05......2" snow 12/4...1" 2/6 and 6" 12/9...14 degrees 12/14 is the coldest temp of the season...KU in Feb... 2006-07......-2.184.....2/4/07........8 degrees 2/5 is the coldest for the winter... 2007-08......-2.468.....1/2/08........12 degrees 1/3 second coldest of the winter... 2008-09......-3.178.....2/3/09........4.3" 2/5 12 degrees... 2009-10......-5.821.....12/21/09...11" snow 12/19-20...KU...16 degrees 12/18 is the coldest for the month... 2010-11......-5.172.....12/18/10...20" of snow 12/26-27...23 max on 12/14... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 The AO is much more a lock for cold conditions which can at least give you the opportunity for storms. The NAO has numerous issues to it such as where the block is located and you can have a very negative NAO but little cold air to bring down because the AO may be posititve or there may be an absence of a PV in Canada. The only thing that can really overcome a highly negative AO is a raging El Nino. We saw that happen in 1997-98 and to an extent in 2009-2010 as well but the Nino was just barely weak enough that time around that it was overpowered by the thinnest of margins by the -AO. 1993-94 is a great example of how much the AO can help you. And even 00-01 and 02-03...most people don't realize how much of those 2 winters the NAO was actually positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 6, 2011 Author Share Posted September 6, 2011 JJA oni index was 0.0 for the second straight three month period...The MEI index was down sharply to -0.503... 2011 mei -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 -.368 -.225 -.147 -.503 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 10, 2011 Author Share Posted September 10, 2011 with the posibility of a weak La Nina developing this winter here are analogs that were weaker La Nina's than then previous year... 1950-51 1956-57 1971-72 1974-75 2000-01 nina to weak negative... 1985-86 1996-97 2008-09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 with the posibility of a weak La Nina developing this winter here are analogs that were weaker La Nina's than then previous year... 1950-51 1956-57 1971-72 1974-75 2000-01 nina to weak negative... 1985-86 1996-97 2008-09 1996-97 was one of those very tough to figure out why it worked out as it did type winters. It was more or less neutral or an extraordinarily weak Nina and had the classic brutal cold in the Northern Plains many Ninas have but was a blowtorch everywhere else. This all with the NAO and AO more or less averaging negative a good part of the winter except for February. I believe the Pacific may have overwhelmed the pattern. Often times near neutral winters that blowtorch can be blamed on a solar surge because it reinforces the zonal flow regime in the absence of an ENSO mechanism to buckle the jet as we saw in 2001-2002 but 96-97 was more or less still near a solar minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 1974-75 was another disaster of a winter as well.7 days with a high temp of 32 of below but none in DEC and maybe 1 or 2 days in JAN The only winter we had was for about a 10 day period in FEB with my first time I experienced Thundersnow with bright lightning and loud thunder with a morning to early afternoon 6 inch snowfall on Presidents Day.Actually the DEC Noreaster that winter was nearly like DEC 1992.NYC Central Park had a 78MPH wind gust and the coastal flooding was severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 10, 2011 Author Share Posted September 10, 2011 1996-97 was one of those very tough to figure out why it worked out as it did type winters. It was more or less neutral or an extraordinarily weak Nina and had the classic brutal cold in the Northern Plains many Ninas have but was a blowtorch everywhere else. This all with the NAO and AO more or less averaging negative a good part of the winter except for February. I believe the Pacific may have overwhelmed the pattern. Often times near neutral winters that blowtorch can be blamed on a solar surge because it reinforces the zonal flow regime in the absence of an ENSO mechanism to buckle the jet as we saw in 2001-2002 but 96-97 was more or less still near a solar minimum. timing for noreasters was bad in 1996-97...they happened in early December and the end of March...NYC recieved mostly rain ...The subburbs were hit good...If these storms came in January it would have brought heavy snow to the city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 The day I was born, Central park's highest recorded wind gust. Guess that should have been a sign I'd always be a weather weenie 1974-75 was another disaster of a winter as well.7 days with a high temp of 32 of below but none in DEC and maybe 1 or 2 days in JAN The only winter we had was for about a 10 day period in FEB with my first time I experienced Thundersnow with bright lightning and loud thunder with a morning to early afternoon 6 inch snowfall on Presidents Day.Actually the DEC Noreaster that winter was nearly like DEC 1992.NYC Central Park had a 78MPH wind gust and the coastal flooding was severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Did a comparison between 1995-96 and this year, on my blog. http://weatherintoro...comparsion.html Comments and questions will be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Did a comparison between 1995-96 and this year, on my blog. http://weatherintoro...comparsion.html Comments and questions will be appreciated. As you mentioned 1995-96 is not good....95-96 was a truly rare winter simply in its ENSO state of weak Nina following a borderline weak/moderate El Nino that since 1950 only 2 winters even come close to matching the 1994-96 ENSO transition for the 95-96 winter. That would be 1970-71 and 1983-84, 1970-71 followed a stronger Nino than 94-95 and was a stronger Nina than 95-96. 1983-84 followed a stronger El Nino than 94-95 as well but was close to 95-96 as far as the strength of the La Nina goes. 1983-84 temp wise in the area followed the pattern of the 1995-96 winter quite closely, as a matter of fact those 2 Marches are our coldest Marches since 1980. What truly made 1995-96 was that stubborn ridge all winter on or slightly off the West Coast which was trapped there by the ridge over the Bering Sea. That allowed the trough to almost always be in a perfect spot in the East to allow systems to take tracks near the coast and we had very few misses and the -NAO prevented storms from cutting inland outside of the January thaw period. 2007-2008 I should mention had potential to be like 1995-96, unfortunately the +NAO more or less killed that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 18, 2011 Author Share Posted September 18, 2011 from November 1995 to November 1996 there was a trof in the east most of the time...It finially lifted out the beginning of December...The timing could not have been worse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 My confidence in a cold to very cold December is increasing. One of the biggest factors in early season cold--IMO--is the build-up of the cryosphere. We're above-normal already, but will likely be significantly above normal within a week or so--the EURO shows rather cold air covering most of Russia by D10, leading to my assumption that Siberia should be solidly covered in snow by October 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 My confidence in a cold to very cold December is increasing. One of the biggest factors in early season cold--IMO--is the build-up of the cryosphere. We're above-normal already, but will likely be significantly above normal within a week or so--the EURO shows rather cold air covering most of Russia by D10, leading to my assumption that Siberia should be solidly covered in snow by October 1st. Current snow cover (12Z GFS): October 1 00Z snow cover (also 12Z GFS): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 4, 2011 Author Share Posted October 4, 2011 JAS oni index is -0.2...Same as 1967, 1983, 1984, 1995...The last three periods are the same as 1967...1967 had a very cold November but mild December...January and February were very cold...I doubt we will see temperatures as cold as that winter or the dry spell in Feb. 68... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 This past February I left NYC to head to florida to visit my parents on the 9th. There were huge snow piles in the streets/curbs still from the storms. I came back on the 19th and they were all but gone. So it was definitely a drastic difference. Both 09-10 and 10-11 featured rather abrupt endings to winter, both occurring in February. 09-10 was particularly notable in DC as it snowed repeatedly and massively from 12/19-2/11 then stopped completely afterwards. 10-11 was similar in NYC, featuring non-stop cold/snow from 12/26-2/10 or so and then just thawing out completely. The dumps of snow in DC were definitely better than the storms in NYC, but the duration of the cold/snow in NY this past winter was much more impressive than what happened in DC, as the snow cover was continuous for almost two months, which was just unreal. At this point I have a good feeling for NYC regarding the upcoming winter. Forecast out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 these are the analogs I like as of now...enso weighted... first tier... 1944-45...Very cold January...Warm March...Average snowfall... 1893-94...Cold and very snowy February...above average snowfall... 1921-22...Cold december and January...Average snowfall... 1974-75...Mild but a snowy first half of February... ........................................................................................... second tier... 1943-44...Average winter...snowfall slightly below... 1962-63...Very cold but below average snowfall... 1967-68...Very cold but below average snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 1971-72...snowy second half... 1974-75...mild with not much snow...two good weeks and one good storm... 1999-00...overall mild with a cold snowy end of January... here we are near the end of November and it looks like this winter will at least get off to a mild start...These three second year La Nina years got off to a warm start but had a period of cold and snow...This year has 2.9" of snow so far and the three winters combined didn't have that much snow before January...1972 and 2000 had KU storms that under achieved in NYC and a 8" snow event in 1975...This year could be bigger so snow totals could come close to 25" which is my final guess... year... 1971-72.....35.1 1974-75.....37.5 1999-00.....36.2 average......33.4 The winter should end up almost three degrees above the long term average and close to +1 for the last 30 years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 these are the analogs I like as of now...enso weighted... first tier... 1944-45...Very cold January...Warm March...Average snowfall... 1893-94...Cold and very snowy February...above average snowfall... 1921-22...Cold december and January...Average snowfall... 1974-75...Mild but a snowy first half of February... ........................................................................................... second tier... 1943-44...Average winter...snowfall slightly below... 1962-63...Very cold but below average snowfall... 1967-68...Very cold but below average snowfall... Im sorry that I can't find the post, but what was the year we hit the 70's right after thanksgiving? You said it had you worried, after a cold october.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Im sorry that I can't find the post, but what was the year we hit the 70's right after thanksgiving? You said it had you worried, after a cold october.... I think it was 1974 or 1975...1979?...1975-76 was a cold winter until mid February then it torched...We should get more snow than those winters...We already are a head of them courtesy of the October storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I think it was 1974 or 1975...1979?...1975-76 was a cold winter until mid February then it torched...We should get more snow than those winters...We already are a head of them courtesy of the October storm... Yeah I remember ur post......saying it turn out to be a mediocre winter. Alot of rain to snow/ snow to rain events.......thanks for all ur post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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