winter 2011-12 analogs

[uncle W]

It's never to early to think about next winter and I came up with these analogs...

Second Year La Nina...Doesn't look like that will happen but if it does these are the analogs...

1893-94...snowy winter...

1916-17...snowy winter...

1921-22...snowy winter in in places...

1938-39...snowy winter...

1950-51...not snowy...

1955-56...ended snowy...

1971-72...snowy second half...

1974-75...mild with not much snow...

1999-00...overall mild with a cold snowy end of January...

Neutral after a one year nina...most likely scenario...

1985-86...not snowy...

1989-90...not snowy...

1996-97...not snowy...

2008-09...Decent winter...

El Nino after a one year nina...This is what I hope happens...

1887-88...snowy winter...

1904-05...snowy winter...

1925-26...snowy winter...

1963-64...snowy winter...

1965-66...decent winter...

After the last two record breaking snowfall seasons can we see a third?...I was always a law of averages guy and we are due for a dud winter but I think we have equal chances for another snowy winter...If we see an El Nino develop I think we will have another snowy winter...If we see a La nina comeback we still might have a decent winter...If it's neutral next year I hope it's a winter like 2008-09...

[SnowGoose69]

89-90 looks like a very good analog just based off the ENSO factor, not looking at anything else....that was a weak Nina after a relatively strong one.....the problem is using those 1980s and 90s analogs has proven bad recently since there have been some changes in the Pacific and Atlantic since then and that period was abnormally skewed in favor of no snow....its sort of like using analogs from the 1930s in the Plains...they often do not work....the way the blocking has been the last few years I'm having a hard time siding warm/snowless....I tried it last winter and was burned though I did get December and January close as far as the temp deaprtures, my snowfall was way off.

[A-L-E-X]

89-90 looks like a very good analog just based off the ENSO factor, not looking at anything else....that was a weak Nina after a relatively strong one.....the problem is using those 1980s and 90s analogs has proven bad recently since there have been some changes in the Pacific and Atlantic since then and that period was abnormally skewed in favor of no snow....its sort of like using analogs from the 1930s in the Plains...they often do not work....the way the blocking has been the last few years I'm having a hard time siding warm/snowless....I tried it last winter and was burned though I did get December and January close as far as the temp deaprtures, my snowfall was way off.

Ugh not that analog lol--

actually the funny thing is, a lot of people were using that year as an analog for last winter and it came closer to working out than people think. The change to milder just happened a few weeks later and variance can account for a lot of the near misses in December 1989 which actually should have been a much better snow month than it actually was.

But if the la nada thing were to verify I do agree we must watch out for 89-90 and 01-02.

Im willing to bet the winter after will be a blockbuster el nino though.

[uncle W]

almost all the la nina/negative years that warmed to at least +0.2 became el nino's...Years that made it to 0.0 after a negative fell back to a weak negative or another la nina...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

If we get above 0.2 by September I bet we see a weak el nino by the winter...

[A-L-E-X]

almost all the la nina/negative years that warmed to at least +0.2 became el nino's...Years that made it to 0.0 after a negative fell back to a weak negative or another la nina...

http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml

If we get above 0.2 by September I bet we see a weak el nino by the winter...

Thanks Unc-- how close are we to that right now?

[ORH_wxman]

Thanks Unc-- how close are we to that right now?

I'm skeptical of any weak El Nino developing. It would probably be a good thing for the northeast, but I don't see it making it over the hump. We seem to have gone stale and the trade winds are forecasted to pick back up which will probably put an end to any weak Nino threat. But sometimes these things can surprise us all.

[A-L-E-X]

I'm skeptical of any weak El Nino developing. It would probably be a good thing for the northeast, but I don't see it making it over the hump. We seem to have gone stale and the trade winds are forecasted to pick back up which will probably put an end to any weak Nino threat. But sometimes these things can surprise us all.

I was thinking that also and that it would be a neutral year-- I just hope it doesnt follow the typical neutral after nina route of 89-90 and 01-02. Hopefully the state of the north pacific and the nao state will have something to say about that. I do think we have a much higher likelihood of going el nino the winter following that.

[SnowGoose69]

I was thinking that also and that it would be a neutral year-- I just hope it doesnt follow the typical neutral after nina route of 89-90 and 01-02. Hopefully the state of the north pacific and the nao state will have something to say about that. I do think we have a much higher likelihood of going el nino the winter following that.

Both of those years occurred near the solar maximum with 01-02 even having a bit of a secondary unexpected solar peak occurring during the autumn....near neutral winters close to the solar maximum have overall proven to be horrible for cold and snow...you're actually better off statistically with a strong La Nina or El Nino near the solar peak than a neutral ENSO.....it tends to cause a shriking of the the PV and as a result little buckling to the jet....the stronger ENSO factor might aid in getting more buckling to the jet stream during those winters which is why having a strong Nina may be better.

[A-L-E-X]

Both of those years occurred near the solar maximum with 01-02 even having a bit of a secondary unexpected solar peak occurring during the autumn....near neutral winters close to the solar maximum have overall proven to be horrible for cold and snow...you're actually better off statistically with a strong La Nina or El Nino near the solar peak than a neutral ENSO.....it tends to cause a shriking of the the PV and as a result little buckling to the jet....the stronger ENSO factor might aid in getting more buckling to the jet stream during those winters which is why having a strong Nina may be better.

Excellent points, SG! So the combo of strong enso and weak solar may be why last winter was so much like 1916-17? BTW are there any useful neutral / weak solar analogs?

[LehighValleyBlizzard]

I just gotta argue with "1971-72...snowy second half..." only Feb. was decent (17.8"), total season was average!

[uncle W]

I just gotta argue with "1971-72...snowy second half..." only Feb. was decent (17.8"), total season was average!

snowfall from 12/21/71 to 2/5/72.....2.8"

snowfall from 2/6/72 to 3/21/72.....20.1"

[TheTrials]

[Analog96]

Looks like we still have an east-based Nina as of now.

[TheTrials]

Looks like we still have an east-based Nina as of now.

Barely, if at all region 3.4 is not below zero as of last check IIRC.

[ORH_wxman]

The subsurface has been cooling the past month, so the chances of an El Nino are pretty remote IMHO. But I guess we'll find out in another month or two.

[TheTrials]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/18646-why-is-enso-warming/page__view__findpost__p__792170

[Isotherm]

The subsurface has been cooling the past month, so the chances of an El Nino are pretty remote IMHO. But I guess we'll find out in another month or two.

Agree, I still think we'll be weak nina, maybe even borderline moderate.

[A-L-E-X]

Agree, I still think we'll be weak nina, maybe even borderline moderate.

weak la nina might be better snow-wise than neutral.... actually may be a lot better.

Weak La Nina is our second snowiest enso, after weak el nino.

[InstantWeatherMaps]

Thongs ate looking positive neutral... but it does look like it will be warm-west cool-east in the ENSO pattern... which means colder weather for the majority of the USA.

[Frank]

Looking at analogs is decisive. Besides Joe Bastardi, who likes to look at historical weather events an correlate them with the present time, he is the only one I trust when it comes to making comparisons from years past. Forecasting weather in the long-range is difficult but the best way to do so is by looking at clues and finding patterns. For now, I still think its early to be thinking what the weather will look like in 6 months.

The best time to start thinking about the following winter will be when September/October rolls around. The pattern will start taking shape and we may see the stages of the Nina/Nino by than.

[MJO812]

Weak La Nina =)

[CooL]

Looking at analogs is decisive. Besides Joe Bastardi, who likes to look at historical weather events an correlate them with the present time, he is the only one I trust when it comes to making comparisons from years past. Forecasting weather in the long-range is difficult but the best way to do so is by looking at clues and finding patterns. For now, I still think its early to be thinking what the weather will look like in 6 months.

The best time to start thinking about the following winter will be when September/October rolls around. The pattern will start taking shape and we may see the stages of the Nina/Nino by than.

its never too early to start discussing about next winter, and there are plenty of mets on this board that i would trust more about anything weather related than big dog JB.

[earthlight]

Weak La Nina =)

Not really a whole ton to say at this point regarding the upcoming winter, given that it's still early July. But I will say this...the current state of the ENSO and the forecast ensemble spreads are, for the lack of a more descriptive word, fantastic if you're hoping for cold and snow.

[CooL]

Not really a whole ton to say at this point regarding the upcoming winter, given that it's still early July. But I will say this...the current state of the ENSO and the forecast ensemble spreads are, for the lack of a more descriptive word, fantastic if you're hoping for cold and snow.

nice, i was just reading up on Will and CoastalWx in the NE thread. The early signals are good. And of course we got the trials who has been barking since march lol

[Isotherm]

Looking at analogs is decisive. Besides Joe Bastardi, who likes to look at historical weather events an correlate them with the present time, he is the only one I trust when it comes to making comparisons from years past. Forecasting weather in the long-range is difficult but the best way to do so is by looking at clues and finding patterns. For now, I still think its early to be thinking what the weather will look like in 6 months.

The best time to start thinking about the following winter will be when September/October rolls around. The pattern will start taking shape and we may see the stages of the Nina/Nino by than.

So if I'm reading this correctly, you don't believe looking at past years is worthwhile in long range forecasting? If so, I disagree entirely. The bulk of my LR forecasts and I'm sure most others involve finding correlations and similarities wrt NAO/AO/PDO/AMO/ENSO/Solar, and the only way to do that is examine pattern progressions of prior years. Obviously looking at the present physical drivers is crucial as well, but without the past, the resultant long term forecast will be much more of a crapshoot IMO. You have to combine analogs with what's going on right now to create a general picture of what "may" happen in the future. And even then its difficult, as the climate system is so chaotic, erratic and dynamic that unseen curveballs can influence the forecast. I personally have had good success in LT forecasting with a heavy basis in the past.

[Isotherm]

Not really a whole ton to say at this point regarding the upcoming winter, given that it's still early July. But I will say this...the current state of the ENSO and the forecast ensemble spreads are, for the lack of a more descriptive word, fantastic if you're hoping for cold and snow.

Pretty much agree. Still very early in the game, but if we couple weak ENSO with another winter of blocking, we're going to be looking at a much more cold dominate winter than last year. To the tune of 2008-09 except more severe IF the blocking is there. And the latter is a wild card right now; if geomagnetic activity begins ramping up big time by this autumn then I might think about going warm for the northeast.

[nzucker]

Pretty much agree. Still very early in the game, but if we couple weak ENSO with another winter of blocking, we're going to be looking at a much more cold dominate winter than last year. To the tune of 2008-09 except more severe IF the blocking is there. And the latter is a wild card right now; if geomagnetic activity begins ramping up big time by this autumn then I might think about going warm for the northeast.

I'm on the train for a big winter myself. Given the CFS has the tendency towards the extreme, I believe we end up with a borderline weak Niña/neutral-negative regime for Winter 11-12, probably similar to 08-09. Subsurface waters have been cooling, the SOI has returned to slight positive readings, and trade winds have been prevalent throughout June. You can see that most ENSO models are significantly warmer than the CFS, using the IRI suite:

However, almost none of the models are showing a robust El Niño anymore, as the surge of warmth in the subsurface has mainly dissipated. I believe that a weak negative ENSO regime tends to be favorable for NYC metro, as the PV has more chance of being on the Canadian side of the hemisphere, the globe is slightly cooler, and we can see the presence of a subtropical jet although this is less likely given the La Niña "hangover" we will probably experience, unlike in 95-96, a weak La Niña that followed a moderate El Niño. Decent analogs for this winter could include 56-57, 59-60, 60-61, 71-72, 74-75, 00-01, and 08-09. The temperature composite looks like this:

This is clearly a La Niña map, albeit one that suggests a strong pipeline of cold through Western Canada with a reasonably favorable Pacific pattern that features a PV on our side of the hemisphere with arctic airmasses moving into the Plains and northern states; this is not a +EPO type signal, such as we saw in poor La Niña winters like 98-99 or 99-00. 1970-71, a first year moderate La Niña, had the type of 500mb pattern I could see playing out in Winter 11-12, with the strong -PDO/East Pacific high in place, although I could see the -NAO being stronger this year allowing for more snowfall in the big cities. Here was the 500mb pattern for 70-71, a historically snowy winter in New England and a very cold winter in NYC:

Speaking of the NAO, we've seen a revival of said blocking this summer, which bodes well for the winter. A -NAO pattern emerged in Summer 2008, and the index has remained steadily negative since that period. Summer 2009 and 2010 both had very strong -NAO/-AO regimes, especially early in the summer, and the winter that followed was dominated by high-latitude blocking. Summer 2011 has started on the same note...here is the 500mb map for June 2011:

The consistency of the blocking has been impressive, and CPC shows that it should continue for the most part this July, although as we all know, a weak -NAO signal is next to irrelevant in terms of summertime temperatures, although it can become crucially important during a weak La Niña winter, allowing the PV over NW Canada to bleed further south and eliminate any signs of subtropical ridging that may occur in a cold ENSO season. Here is the ENS forecast, courtesy of CPC:

I will post much more on my thoughts as time goes on, but the overall state of the NAO, combined with the low solar/-QBO regime (which tends to lead to an early stratospheric warming, if you read Holton-Tan and more importantly subsequent papers about the QBO) has me convinced that Winter 11-12 may be a solid one. Global temperatures, and particularly global SSTs, are running quite low compared to recent years; this could allow for a very cold PV, which will be disturbed by the low solar/-QBO combination as well as the general decadal cycle of the NAO/AO whose favorable phase we have entered. Furthermore, the -PDO state of the 1960s proves that a cold Pacific can be very favorable for a long run of snowy and cold winters, so we are not necessarily due for a clunker. Similar to how 07-08 started a new winter regime for much of the nation in terms of colder national anomalies, and 08-09 brought this to the major eastern cities...we saw the same thing happen in 55-56 during the last -PDO cycle, and then we had a string of interesting winters, especially 57-58 (similar to 09-10), 60-61 (similar to 10-11 with more snow north, historic near NYC)...are we due for the next 63-64 or 66-67?

[Isotherm]

I'm on the train for a big winter myself. Given the CFS has the tendency towards the extreme, I believe we end up with a borderline weak Niña/neutral-negative regime for Winter 11-12, probably similar to 08-09. Subsurface waters have been cooling, the SOI has returned to slight positive readings, and trade winds have been prevalent throughout June. You can see that most ENSO models are significantly warmer than the CFS, using the IRI suite:

However, almost none of the models are showing a robust El Niño anymore, as the surge of warmth in the subsurface has mainly dissipated. I believe that a weak negative ENSO regime tends to be favorable for NYC metro, as the PV has more chance of being on the Canadian side of the hemisphere, the globe is slightly cooler, and we can see the presence of a subtropical jet although this is less likely given the La Niña "hangover" we will probably experience, unlike in 95-96, a weak La Niña that followed a moderate El Niño. Decent analogs for this winter could include 56-57, 59-60, 60-61, 71-72, 74-75, 00-01, and 08-09. The temperature composite looks like this:

This is clearly a La Niña map, albeit one that suggests a strong pipeline of cold through Western Canada with a reasonably favorable Pacific pattern that features a PV on our side of the hemisphere with arctic airmasses moving into the Plains and northern states; this is not a +EPO type signal, such as we saw in poor La Niña winters like 98-99 or 99-00. 1970-71, a first year moderate La Niña, had the type of 500mb pattern I could see playing out in Winter 11-12, with the strong -PDO/East Pacific high in place, although I could see the -NAO being stronger this year allowing for more snowfall in the big cities. Here was the 500mb pattern for 70-71, a historically snowy winter in New England and a very cold winter in NYC:

Speaking of the NAO, we've seen a revival of said blocking this summer, which bodes well for the winter. A -NAO pattern emerged in Summer 2008, and the index has remained steadily negative since that period. Summer 2009 and 2010 both had very strong -NAO/-AO regimes, especially early in the summer, and the winter that followed was dominated by high-latitude blocking. Summer 2011 has started on the same note...here is the 500mb map for June 2011:

The consistency of the blocking has been impressive, and CPC shows that it should continue for the most part this July, although as we all know, a weak -NAO signal is next to irrelevant in terms of summertime temperatures, although it can become crucially important during a weak La Niña winter, allowing the PV over NW Canada to bleed further south and eliminate any signs of subtropical ridging that may occur in a cold ENSO season. Here is the ENS forecast, courtesy of CPC:

I will post much more on my thoughts as time goes on, but the overall state of the NAO, combined with the low solar/-QBO regime (which tends to lead to an early stratospheric warming, if you read Holton-Tan and more importantly subsequent papers about the QBO) has me convinced that Winter 11-12 may be a solid one. Global temperatures, and particularly global SSTs, are running quite low compared to recent years; this could allow for a very cold PV, which will be disturbed by the low solar/-QBO combination as well as the general decadal cycle of the NAO/AO whose favorable phase we have entered. Furthermore, the -PDO state of the 1960s proves that a cold Pacific can be very favorable for a long run of snowy and cold winters, so we are not necessarily due for a clunker. Similar to how 07-08 started a new winter regime for much of the nation in terms of colder national anomalies, and 08-09 brought this to the major eastern cities...we saw the same thing happen in 55-56 during the last -PDO cycle, and then we had a string of interesting winters, especially 57-58 (similar to 09-10), 60-61 (similar to 10-11 with more snow north, historic near NYC)...are we due for the next 63-64 or 66-67?

Very nice, well thought out post Nate. Not much I can disagree with at this point. The -NAO/AO signal this summer is indeed a favorable sign for the winter ahead, although I'd like to see how things progress the next few months, before getting too excited. A mediocre NAO pattern could mean a robust SE ridge in a second year Nina/-PDO/-ENSO regime. As we've seen over the past couple winters, the Atlantic behaviour is very important to sensible winter wx in the Northeast. Another concern is the STJ. Last winter we had a lot of late developing lows that screwed BWI/DCA southward but PHL northeast cashed in big time (we still had the juice from the sern stream). 10-11 had the STJ hangover from the big el nino of 09-10; I'm not sure if we can be as lucky this upcoming winter. My early guess is we'll be more dependent on northern clippers and may end up with a cold/dry pattern much of the time. This is only speculation as its still early. I like to see how the autumn storm tracks progress and how October plays out precip/temp wise.

[ORH_wxman]

Very nice, well thought out post Nate. Not much I can disagree with at this point. The -NAO/AO signal this summer is indeed a favorable sign for the winter ahead, although I'd like to see how things progress the next few months, before getting too excited. A mediocre NAO pattern could mean a robust SE ridge in a second year Nina/-PDO/-ENSO regime. As we've seen over the past couple winters, the Atlantic behaviour is very important to sensible winter wx in the Northeast. Another concern is the STJ. Last winter we had a lot of late developing lows that screwed BWI/DCA southward but PHL northeast cashed in big time. 10-11 had the STJ hangover from the big el nino of 09-10; I'm not sure if we can be as lucky this upcoming winter. My early guess is we'll be more dependent on northern clippers and may end up with a cold/dry pattern much of the time. This is only speculation as its still early. I like to see how the autumn storm tracks progress and how October plays out precip/temp wise.

The STJ was pretty much non-existent last year. We briefly had a pseudo STJ in the the 12/26 storm when the polar jet had a huge split flow out in the PAC and sent a southern stream gradient pretty far south. But the STJ zone in the PAC actually had negative zonal anomalies which is normal for a potent Nina.

[CooL]

The STJ was pretty much non-existent last year. We briefly had a pseudo STJ in the the 12/26 storm when the polar jet had a huge split flow out in the PAC and sent a southern stream gradient pretty far south. But the STJ zone in the PAC actually had negative zonal anomalies which is normal for a potent Nina.

OT but are you saying that 12/26 was a triple phaser?