Jim Marusak Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 KSPI 270802Z AUTO 26023G35KT 2 1/2SM -TSRA BR FEW008 BKN025 OVC090 20/18 A2994 oh well. i was placing the line based on what happened at KUIN. so i guess i shouldn't be a vegas bookie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Looks like the line is quickly running out of instability. Trending down now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 June looks like it will be well below average for tornadic activity, particularly because of so many cap busts, I wonder what July will bring....and maybe more importantly, the fall season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Interesting cell mergers along the northern end of the line. Lead cells/supercells have been fully absorbed into the line, which has coincided with enhanced wind signatures developing, and recently a 62 mph wind gust in East Peoria. Sometimes these complex interactions are enough to overcome a relative lack of environmental support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Interesting experience with the gravity wave earlier tonight as the SO and I were at friends house playing cards and all of a sudden his ears popped about the time the pressure dropped and the winds were ripping outside with the feature. Never experienced popping ears with a gravity wave but I suppose its a possibility. The non thunderstorms winds associated with this were just wicked and haven't experienced it in a while. Certainly looks like tomorrow things will fire up just East of us once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Don't know if you guys caught this storm report after the complex passed through. Amazing how much of a gradient there was. It's believable too, some chasers in the area measured 98 mph. 1228 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CALLENDER 42.36N 94.30W 06/27/2011 E100 MPH WEBSTER IA AMATEUR RADIO MAIL BOX POSTS BLOWN DOWN TO THE GROUND. SWING SET BLOWN THROUGH WINDOW. TREES DOWN ON HOUSES AND POWER OUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 27, 2011 Author Share Posted June 27, 2011 Don't know if you guys caught this storm report after the complex passed through. Amazing how much of a gradient there was. It's believable too, some chasers in the area measured 98 mph. 1228 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CALLENDER 42.36N 94.30W 06/27/2011 E100 MPH WEBSTER IA AMATEUR RADIO MAIL BOX POSTS BLOWN DOWN TO THE GROUND. SWING SET BLOWN THROUGH WINDOW. TREES DOWN ON HOUSES AND POWER OUT That is some intense winds behind the main complex, and probably a huge surprise to those that were affected as it would have probably came with little to no precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Starting off the day, cool and cloudy. Yet another 90+ degree day advertised in the med range that fails because of difficulties handling mesoscale interactions. I think we see a pretty aggresive trim back on the northern end of the slight risk, this is rather expansive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Starting off the day, cool and cloudy. Yet another 90+ degree day advertised in the med range that fails because of difficulties handling mesoscale interactions. I think we see a pretty aggresive trim back on the northern end of the slight risk, this is rather expansive. I had thought a trimming of the northern portion would happen as well but instead it gets extended. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS/MS VLY INTO THE MIDWEST AND LWR OH/TN VLYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN HI PLNS... ..SYNOPSIS ELONGATED UPR RIDGE OVER THE SWRN AND S CNTRL U.S. EXPECTED TO BUILD N ACROSS THE RCKYS THIS PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN PLNS CONTINUES E TO THE UPR GRT LKS AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN PLNS TROUGH SHOULD ADVANCE E/SE ACROSS THE UPR/MID MS VLY AND SE/S ACROSS THE OZARKS/SRN PLNS THROUGH TNGT...WHILE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT MOVES N/NE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VLY. THE COLD FRONT...AND OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCSS IN THE LWR MO/MID MS VLYS...SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCI FOR STRONG/SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TUE. ..MIDWEST/OZARKS INTO MID/UPR MS AND TN VLYS TODAY/TNGT OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCS HAS COMPLICATED THE SFC PATTERN THIS MORNING...MASKING AT LEAST TEMPORARILY THE TRUE LOCATION OF MID MS/LWR OH VLY WARM FRONT. OVERALL...THE OUTFLOW SHOULD SERVE TO RETARD NEWD MOTION OF THE NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT...WITH A REDUCED DEGREE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED NWD AND EWD INTO NRN IND...OH...AND MI. BUT SFC HEATING IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST MODERATE DESTABILIZATION /SBCAPE TO 3000 J PER KG/...AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY THIS AFTN ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM SWRN/CNTRL/NE MO INTO WI/NRN IL...AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF IL/IND INTO KY. FARTHER N...A SEPARATE AREA OF STRONG STORMS COULD PRECEDE MAIN UPR TROUGH/VORT OVER NE MN/NW WI. AMPLE /40+ KT/ DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF 40-50 KT MID LVL WLY FLOW ON SRN SIDE OF NRN PLNS TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS/SUSTAINED STORMS WITH HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY EVE. BUT THE STORMS SHOULD FAIRLY QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS/BANDS...WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS ULTIMATELY YIELDING ONE OR MORE CORRIDORS OF DMGG WIND BY THIS EVE/TNGT...ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL/SRN MO E OR ESE INTO CNTRL/SRN IL...SRN IND...AND KY. ..CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS LATE THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AN INCREASINGLY MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY/TNGT OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT SETTLING S ACROSS THE PLNS. ISOLD TO SCTD TSTMS SHOULD FORM BY MID-LATE AFTN OVER THE CO/NE NM FRONT RANGE/RATON MESA AREAS...WITH SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE EWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. UPPER RIDGING WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT WITH SWD EXTENT. BUT COMBINATION OF INCREASING POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE BENEATH EML PLUME ON NRN FRINGE OF RIDGE...AND STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES...SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. FARTHER EAST...ISOLD HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND MAY FORM LATE THIS AFTN EWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK...IF FRONTAL UPLIFT IS SUFFICIENT TO BREAK STOUT CAP. THIS REGION ALSO COULD SEE A FEW LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING STORMS AS SLY LLJ NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENS AND ASCENDS STALLING FRONT. ..SERN STATES THIS AFTN AN AXIS OF RELATIVELY UNSTABLE/NOT RECENTLY OVERTURNED AIR EXISTS ALONG THE SC/NC CSTL PLN AND THE SE CORNER OF VA...ALONG AND S OF WEAK QSTNRY FRONT. ANOTHER AXIS OF GREATER SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FROM WRN TN SSE INTO NRN/CNTRL MS AND WRN AL. SCTD TSTMS LIKELY WILL FORM WITH SFC HEATING OVER THESE CORRIDORS THIS AFTN. WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF EML ON ERN FRINGE OF PLNS RIDGE SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SCTD PULSE-TYPE STORMS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR TWO S OR SW-MOVING CLUSTERS OVER TIME. ..CORFIDI/GRAMS.. 06/27/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Starting off the day, cool and cloudy. Yet another 90+ degree day advertised in the med range that fails because of difficulties handling mesoscale interactions. I think we see a pretty aggresive trim back on the northern end of the slight risk, this is rather expansive. Not yet anyway. Actually a northward expansion (NW WI - E/NE MN). Sun coming out here this morning...for now. EDIT: Jim beat me to the punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 My biggest pet peeve regarding severe weather is when an MCS falls apart right before it arrives here on a day of potential strong storms, but the clouds are still abundant, retarding the chance for destabilization. Worst of both worlds: chance for initial MCS wanes, yet later chances wane as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Models are handling this precip horribly...will be a wait and watch day...cloud deck is beginning to thin on the northern half... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 If I received a dollar for every potential severe wx day here that started out with observations of "Fog/Mist" I'd be a rich man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Current radar has the look of the tail end of a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLMKA Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 A friend posted this from Quincy, IL this morning, she said the whole town looks like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Well the damage assessment from here could have just been copied and pasted from a half dozen other MCSs this year. I lost some more shingles and some of my siding was popped off as well as a shutter. Maybe by the end of the summer the insurance company will give me money for a whole new roof instead of the half they gave me earlier in the year. lol Shingle damage seems to be the norm in the neighborhood, most houses have some. Also some tree limbs down. Sounds like just to the north in Adam's county got the worst of it. The sound last night was unbelievable, I really expected much worse outside. Small slide show from the news in Quincy. http://www.wgem.com/Global/story.asp?S=14979822 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Does appear to be breaking up according to VIS SAT loop though... Starting off the day, cool and cloudy. Yet another 90+ degree day advertised in the med range that fails because of difficulties handling mesoscale interactions. I think we see a pretty aggresive trim back on the northern end of the slight risk, this is rather expansive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Does appear to be breaking up according to VIS SAT loop though... It's trying and late June sun should be fairly effective in destabilizing things, but we have a long ways to go. Still think activity remains rather scattered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 It's trying and late June sun should be fairly effective in destabilizing things, but we have a long ways to go. Still think activity remains rather scattered. It probably will, but at this point I'll take anything I can get. The sun is definitely peeking through pretty well, and if we can get in the upper 70s, the juice will be there to develop something potentially significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Can't help but feel today will be a bust day for the Dayton area. Air is very stable here and light rain/MCS debris is keeping a lid on surface heating. We really need the warm front to lift soon to help...or else anything that heads this way this afternoon/evening will weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Really looking forward to Thursday here in southern Manitoba. Looks like our first shot at a legitimate outbreak in quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 LOT just slashed probs, probably a good call, clouds filling in rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Models are handling this precip horribly...will be a wait and watch day...cloud deck is beginning to thin on the northern half... Yeah, models have backed off on instability with northward extent but it's really wait and see. Should continue to see breaks in the clouds with some subsidence behind the early morning complex, but overall I'm probably a little less enthused than yesterday at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1215 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN POPE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY... * UNTIL 1245 PM CDT. * AT 1213 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR HAMLETSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE... SMITHLAND... HAMLETSBURG... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Dr Greg Forbes has a TOR:CON of 4 for E. Wisconsin today. While we should be pretty close to the warm front, I find it unlikely the odds are really that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Dr Greg Forbes has a TOR:CON of 4 for E. Wisconsin today. While we should be pretty close to the warm front, I find it unlikely the odds are really that good. Deep layer shear is good with some nice directional shear especially in the low levels. Main question is how much destabilization occurs that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 a few 80 degree readings now in northern IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 a few 80 degree readings now in northern IL IKK doesn't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 HRRR is popping a supercell in southeast Wisconsin around 7pm cdt this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Deep layer shear is good with some nice directional shear especially in the low levels. Main question is how much destabilization occurs that far north. Well that destabilization is definitely underway. Most of the clouds have disappeared, and the sun is out in full force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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