andyhb Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 The supercell on the western end of the line in Kansas looked dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Nearly 50mph winds in the QC right now on the back edge of the band of light rain moving through. DVN just gusted to 48mph from the east. Must be some sort of wake low associated with that very weak band of dying convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 That line of convection across southern NE and the way it formed so rapidly is just bizarre. You need to loop a couple hours to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 The surging cold front that initiated it shows up great on WV. Great example of terrain enhancement and the rapid adjustment process once they front ejects into the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 That bowing line as it passed through Iowa was gorgeous. It literally resembles an occluding cyclone as it progresses eastward with the cyclonic northern end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 not to take away from tomorrow and pretty far out but if things play out we could have a nice severe event on Friday around here, alot of instability under the southern fringe of the good-level flow. Just something to watch. This is for Cedar Rapids, IA friday evening. Obviously undirectional flow but decent wind fields to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 not to take away from tomorrow and pretty far out but if things play out we could have a nice severe event on Friday around here, alot of instability under the southern fringe of the good-level flow. Just something to watch. This is for Cedar Rapids, IA friday evening. Obviously undirectional flow but decent wind fields to work with. Ah yes, the GFS 80 degree dews make another appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 No big surprises on the day 1 outlook. They mention the uncertainty with ongoing convection. FWIW, the RUC looks more like the GFS with its really warm temps aloft and better mid level lapse rates spreading into IL/IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 blanket tor from STL edit: well, not one of those huge latitudinal ones but still BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 108 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN ADAMS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS... PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI... EASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI... NORTHERN PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI... RALLS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI... * UNTIL 145 AM CDT * AT 104 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE. THESE DANGEROUS STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WARREN TO MONROE CITY TO SANTA FE...AND MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 27, 2011 Author Share Posted June 27, 2011 Man I'll tell you this, I think STL is going to have a rude awakening in the next hour/90 minutes. This line is maintaining itself very well. Hoosier beat me to the warning That area Northwest of STL has had to have been hit at least a dozen times this year with significant severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Man I'll tell you this, I think STL is going to have a rude awakening in the next hour/90 minutes. This line is maintaining itself very well. Hoosier beat me to the warning That area Northwest of STL has had to have been hit at least a dozen times this year with significant severe weather. Quincy is about to get rocked. New ob could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 not to take away from tomorrow and pretty far out but if things play out we could have a nice severe event on Friday around here, alot of instability under the southern fringe of the good-level flow. Just something to watch. This is for Cedar Rapids, IA friday evening. Obviously undirectional flow but decent wind fields to work with. SPC was forecasting an upper level trough to move through the plains on Thursday and then into the Miss. Valley Friday, similar to the current situation, we'll have to wait and see if all the parameters come together... On another note: Man if we had convection like this in eastern Kansas several hours ago, we could've had a significant tornado outbreak on our hands... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 27, 2011 Author Share Posted June 27, 2011 KCOU 270629Z AUTO 34046G54KT 2 1/2SM -RA SQ BKN055 BKN075 19/16 A2994 62 mph at Colombia. Btw not only is that area a radar hole, it is an observation hole too. Other than Quincy and Kirksville, there isn't another observation station North of 70 until you are almost to Kansas City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 27, 2011 Author Share Posted June 27, 2011 Quincy is about to get rocked. New ob could be interesting. SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 149 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011 ILC001-009-270715- /O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0414.000000T0000Z-110627T0715Z/ ADAMS IL-BROWN IL- 149 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BROWN AND EASTERN ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM CDT... AT 147 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF BOWEN TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BEVERLY...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. IN ADDITION...AT 135 AM WIND GUSTS OF 76 MPH WERE REPORTED AT BALWIN FIELD...JUST EAST OF QUINCY. KUIN 270635Z AUTO 29043G66KT 1SM +TSRA FEW002 OVC018 19/17 A2996 RMK AO2 PK WND 31066/0635 WSHFT 0621 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB28RAB33 PRESRR P0020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 ouch.. good thing my shift ended when it did... that was a nasty night i had with those storms in nebraska and iowa. so you think this will end up being classified a derecho, given it's path length and wind intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Holy crap guys. Went to the basement for maybe the third time in my life. Everything seems ok. Storm still going strong but I think the worst is past us. Never heard a roar like that. I was genuinely afraid of the weather for the first time in my life.I will try and go out and see if there is any damage but I don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Hey Baro, got a question for ya, check out the base ref and 0.5 base vel loop out of DVN, those surface gravity waves moving southeast? Can see them best in Warren and Knox county in IL. Also if that line heading for PIA gets a bit more of a northerly component it will make a run at the southern portions of LOT's CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 springfield IL next (KSPI).. any bets on the gusts there? i'll set the over under at 68mph/60kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Hey Baro, got a question for ya, check out the base ref and 0.5 base vel loop out of DVN, those surface gravity waves moving southeast? Can see them best in Warren and Knox county in IL. Also if that line heading for PIA gets a bit more of a northerly component it will make a run at the southern portions of LOT's CWA. That feature certainly has the look of a gravity wave. Unfortunately, it appears that the storms knocked out GBG, which would have been the perfect location to see pressure fluctuations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Actually MLI shows it pretty well. KMLI 270550Z 29023G35KT 10SM -RA FEW020 BKN075 OVC095 23/19 A2982 RMK AO2 PK WND 10043/0456 WSHFT 0535 LTG DSNT SE AND W TSB0455E10B22E50 PRESRR P0002 402670156 KMLI 270501Z 10034G43KT 8SM VCTS -RA BKN055 22/19 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 10043/0456 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB0455 PRESFR P0000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 That feature certainly has the look of a gravity wave. Unfortunately, it appears that the storms knocked out GBG, which would have been the perfect location to see pressure fluctuations. would either of these help? they are from someone's home back yard, so it's not perfect, but probably better than nothing http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KILGALES2 http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KILGALES6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 would either of these help? they are from someone's home back yard, so it's not perfect, but probably better than nothing http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=KILGALES2 http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=KILGALES6 Those show it nicely in the traces. The up and down pressure with the wild swings in wind direction and speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Those show it nicely in the traces. The up and down pressure with the wild swings in wind direction and speed. so, you taking the over or the under for KSPI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 springfield IL next (KSPI).. any bets on the gusts there? i'll set the over under at 68mph/60kt. Given trends, under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 A lot of kinks in the line as it heads towards ILX. Should be a couple areas of intense wind within that line, along with isolated spin ups. Especially looking at southern Mason County, central Menard, and northern Sangamon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 so, you taking the over or the under for KSPI? I'll say under, but just in or around Athens, IL will probably go over that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 A lot of kinks in the line as it heads towards ILX. Should be a couple areas of intense wind within that line, along with isolated spin ups. Especially looking at southern Mason County, central Menard, and northern Sangamon. The most significant is headed towards Easton and San Jose, IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 The most significant is headed towards Easton and San Jose, IL. Impressive wind signature with that section of the line, despite the fact that some of the wind is probably traveling perpendicular to the beam at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 springfield IL next (KSPI).. any bets on the gusts there? i'll set the over under at 68mph/60kt. KSPI 270802Z AUTO 26023G35KT 2 1/2SM -TSRA BR FEW008 BKN025 OVC090 20/18 A2994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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