Ian Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 This is about the 10 th time you could have made that argument this year. Signifigant Tornado Parameter just isn't very useful. It was pretty clear the highest juice/parameter area was going to have trouble going.. as is typical of late June. I think the mess that was over the Nebraska portion early today probably hurt a good bit up there. SPC seemed too aggressive given the setup but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Was hoping the cap would break in ne KS but not with 700 mb temps like those indicated. It's looking more and more like that MCS will roll in derecho style across IA tonight. How far east it goes with remnant cloudiness will certainly affect parameters tomorrow for some of us here in IL and IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Agitated CU field that was across this area is now diminishing. What's left of it has now developed in NW. Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Now it's time for the warm front to retreat and get active tonight. STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA...NERN MO AND W-CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 262322Z - 270045Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND A POSSIBLE WW FROM SERN IA...NERN MO INTO W-CNTRL IL. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A CONDITIONAL THREAT ALSO EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. WARM FRONT...PARTIALLY REINFORCED BY EARLIER CONVECTION...EXTENDS FROM NERN KS SEWD THROUGH NWRN AND E-CNTRL MO. THE WARM SECTOR TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH 4000-5000 J/KG MLCAPE...BUT REMAINS CAPPED BY A WARM EML. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS FROM WEST OF ST LOUIS NWWD THROUGH NWRN MO...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE IN THIS ZONE SOON. A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD THROUGH SRN IA...EXTREME NERN MO AND EVENTUALLY INTO W-CNTRL IL AS SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS AND VEERS OVERNIGHT AND AUGMENTS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. IF THIS OCCURS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WITH BOWING AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY A GREATER THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 insane parameters continue to rise under the very warm EML.. SBCAPE to 7000 j/kg sig tor fixed layer up to 7 0-1km EHI at 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 A bit off topic [country], but there could be a decent severe weather outbreak over Manitoba on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Stronger cap in NE KS] FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE...A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOCUED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA NEAR A COLD FRONT. BASED UPON THE 00Z KTOP SOUNDING...WHICH SHOWS THE CAPPING INVERSION HAS STRENGTHENED FURTHER SINCE THE 20Z KTOP SOUNDING...WILL NOT MENTION CB UNTIL AROUND 11Z WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z FROM INCREASED MIXING. HAVE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS DUE TO AN INCREASING NOCTURANAL LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 50 KTS FROM AROUND 04-11Z. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TOP&issuedby=TOP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 OFK (Norfolk, NE) is gusting to 80mph with the MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Tor watch coming for Northern MO and St. Louis area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 OFK (Norfolk, NE) is gusting to 80mph with the MCS. Impressive! KOFK 262349Z AUTO 36033G47KT 1/2SM -TSRA FG BKN002 OVC013 17/17 RMK AO2 PK WND 28069/2338 WSHFT 2332 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB25RAB35 P0053 $ KOFK 262345Z AUTO 35036G69KT 1/4SM +TSRA FG SQ SCT002 OVC013 17/17 RMK AO2 PK WND 28069/2338 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB25RAB35 P0025 $ KOFK 262336Z AUTO 27036G57KT 3/4SM -TSRA SQ FEW002 OVC013 21/18 A2981 RMK AO2 PK WND 27057/2335 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB25RAB35 P0000 KOFK 262334Z AUTO 28031G43KT 2 1/2SM TS HZ SQ OVC013 22/19 A2985 RMK AO2 PK WND 27043/2334 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 storm in northwest MO has tops to 58kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 It was pretty clear the highest juice/parameter area was going to have trouble going.. as is typical of late June. I think the mess that was over the Nebraska portion early today probably hurt a good bit up there. SPC seemed too aggressive given the setup but who knows. Warmer Mid levels = More CAPE but More CAP combine that with the lack of synoptic forcing in June and you have a hard time with severe weather despite amazing CAPE values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 LCL very favorable in tor watch area and tongue of 300 m2/s2 low level helicity nosing into the MO/IA border from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Those calling bust may have spoken too soon, high end tornado watch out. Tornado probs 70/40. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 560 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 655 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS NORTHWEST INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 655 PM UNTIL 200 AM CDT. SEVERAL TORNADOES ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH LIKELY WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAINT JOSEPH MISSOURI TO 75 MILES EAST OF JEFFERSON CITY MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 555...WW 556...WW 557...WW 558...WW 559... DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IN NW MO...AND W OF STL WHERE A SMALL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE FRONT. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE MLCAPE IS NEAR 5000 J/KG...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS. ADDITIONALLY...EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-400 M2/S2 AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LATER TONIGHT...THE DEVELOPING STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS...OR THE BOWING MCS IN ERN NEB COULD DEVELOP SEWD ALONG THE FRONT...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 650. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025. ...THOMPSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Hmm tornado watch didn't make it into West Central Illinois. We could sure use a break here from the rain, The rivers are up and the streams are over flowing their banks. Another big rain tonight could really be bad. Not to mention we still have 400 acres of wheat to harvest. :/ Dew Point of 72 here in Pittsfield according to my weather station. I gotta say it feels like big things are coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Speaking of who issued that watch, Rich Thompson, does anybody have anyway to get a hold of him, and let him know about the forum change? He hasn't posted since Eastern, his input is greatly missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Those calling bust may have spoken too soon, high end tornado watch out. Tornado probs 70/40. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 560 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 655 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS NORTHWEST INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 655 PM UNTIL 200 AM CDT. SEVERAL TORNADOES ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH LIKELY WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAINT JOSEPH MISSOURI TO 75 MILES EAST OF JEFFERSON CITY MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 555...WW 556...WW 557...WW 558...WW 559... DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IN NW MO...AND W OF STL WHERE A SMALL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE FRONT. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE MLCAPE IS NEAR 5000 J/KG...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS. ADDITIONALLY...EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-400 M2/S2 AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LATER TONIGHT...THE DEVELOPING STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS...OR THE BOWING MCS IN ERN NEB COULD DEVELOP SEWD ALONG THE FRONT...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 650. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025. ...THOMPSON Thompson red boxes rarely bust.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 I see some Undular Bores forming over west Ilinois and one west of STL that has created it's own Tstorm. Something to watch as a potential cap buster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Wow, wasn't expecting to see a tor watch that far south today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 supercell west of Maryville, MO starting to slow down and turn right, will start to ingest better helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Pretty good shear marker west of Maryville Missouri now. That didn't take long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 732 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL NODAWAY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI... * UNTIL 815 PM CDT * AT 727 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SKIDMORE...OR 11 MILES WEST OF MARYVILLE... AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MARYVILLE...RAVENWOOD...PICKERING AND PARNELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Yeah, I knew if anything went up there it would intensify very rapidly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Effective SRH is between 500-600m2/s2 near the northwest Missouri sup. Effective tornado parameters are off the chart. Nice 50kt+ mid-level jet overhead as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 I wonder if anymore will fire, considering the type of environment that is feeding them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Couplet ramping up very quickly, 80 kt shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Constantini is on it http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/player.pl?username=tyler.costantini&uid=157 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Constantini is on it http://www.severestu...tantini&uid=157 taking some decent sized chucks o' ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 RUC for the next couple of hours show breaking in the cap over the prime area. On another note, that bow-echo to the north is looking rather impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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