Ian Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Morning convection. Could be good or bad it leaves the atmosphere more moist but it sometimes stops daytime heating. Edit: 4/27 had a lat night, early morning round. Looks good for someone.. 15% hatched? Not sure bout that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 you really think its gonna happen? Actually, this time I kinda do...flow isn't off the desert so it's not going to be an incredibly difficult cap to break...gonna have a weak disturbance moving into the area and the cloud deck across the srn half of NE is thinning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Is it just me, or are all those storms along the NE/SD border becoming supercellular? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Is it just me, or are all those storms along the NE/SD border becoming supercellular? Tornado warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Both cells in North-Central Nebraska have been fairly outflow dominant, with only brief spin-up potential thus far. They're in an environment that features 0-1km SRH values around 150 and LCL's under 750m, so the potential is there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Moderate risk dropped... ..NRN PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY REGION AND VICINITY SCENARIO REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ATTM ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION REMAINING FOCUSED OVER N CENTRAL NEB WHERE A COUPLE OF HP-TYPE SUPERCELL STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO EVOLVE. THIS REGION REMAINS N OF THE NRN KS WARM FRONT...WITH LOW CLOUDS WIDESPREAD ACROSS NEB BENEATH SUBSTANTIAL CAP -- WHICH REMAINED QUITE STOUT AND EVEN INCREASED PER AREA 18Z RAOBS. THE CAPPING IS A CONCERN...AS MODELS -- AND THE GOING SPC FORECAST -- INDICATING WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL WITHIN THIS STILL-STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THESE ISSUES AND ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY...AND OVERALL EXPECTATION OF A SOMEWHAT LESS SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT THAN EARLIER FORECAST...WILL REMOVE MODERATE RISK FORECAST ATTM. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO ATTM APPEARS TO BE THAT STORMS OVER N CENTRAL NEB EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A MORE LINEAR/BOWING MCS...WHICH SHOULD ATTEMPT TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE MORE CAPPED AIRMASS. THUS...THOUGH UNCERTAIN -- WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER PROBABILITY SEVERE FORECAST -- TO INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES -- FROM ERN SD/N CENTRAL NEB SEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Love SPC but main thought was what makes this a better setup than last week. To me it seemed very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 ugh...cap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 NE KS is the place to be this evening in my opinion. 5000 CAPE, CINH decreasing per SPC meso page, just south of the secondary warm front, clouds thinning, effective tor at 11. If the cap finally goes it will quickly become very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 meh... PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 221 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011 ..EF-1 TORNADO IN DUBOIS COUNTY EARLY ON JUNE 26 2011...UPDATED DAMAGE TYPE: TORNADO BEGIN TIME: 2:54 AM EDT END TIME: 2:57 AM EDT BEGIN POINT: 0.4 MILE NORTH OF DUFF END POINT: 1.9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DUFF EF SCALE: EF-1 WIND SPEED: 95 MPH PATH LENGTH: 2.2 MILES PATH WIDTH: 130 YARDS INJURIES: 0 FATALITIES: 0 NARRATIVE: IN AND AROUND DUFF SEVERAL HOMES HAD MINOR DAMAGE AND NUMEROUS SOFTWOOD AND HARDWOOD TREES WERE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Yeah there's certainly a powder keg ready to go if conditions become more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 I am watching just N and W of North Platte for possible initiation if that outflow boundary with the cluster to the N can initiate a few cells in that untapped and very unstable airmass north of the N Platte River Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 A big tor warned HP southwest of ONL that has had several nice low-level mesos so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1403 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN NEB...SWRN IA...NWRN CORNER MO. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 262009Z - 262215Z CONDITIONAL BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SVR THREAT EXISTS ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA INITIALLY INVOLVING SUPERCELLS...AS ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE GETTING MORE FAVORABLE INVOF EXISTING CONVECTION AND AHEAD OF NRN NEB MCS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. INITIAL SFC WARM FRONT IS STILL DRAWN S OF AREA...FROM LOW NEAR DDC NEWD ACROSS HLC AREA THEN ARCHING TO BETWEEN SLN-CNK AND SEWD OVER SERN KS. VERY HOT/WELL-MIXED AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ITS S. SECONDARY WARM-FRONTAL ZONE IS DEVELOPING INVOF KS/NEB BORDER AND WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS SRN NEB...AND IS EVIDENT BOTH IN SFC OBS AND IN PRONOUNCED CHANGE IN LOW-CLOUD CHARACTER PER VIS IMAGERY. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...AS WELL AS RAIN-COOLED AIR FROM CONVECTION TO ITS N OVER SERN NEB...MAY REINFORCE THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. NON-SVR ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN NEB BETWEEN OMA-GRI...WITHIN BAND OF MIDLEVEL ASCENT AND NEAR ZONE OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED 700-MB MOISTURE. LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE FROM S-N AS NRN WARM-FRONTAL SEGMENT APCHS...LEADING TO STG SFC HEATING OF AIR MASS CONTAINING LOW-MID 70S F SFC DEW POINTS. THIS WILL BOOST MLCAPE TO 4000-5000 J/KG RANGE...JUXTAPOSED WITH NEAR-FRONTAL MAXIMA IN LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AND HODOGRAPH SIZE. BACKED SFC WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE BOTH TO EFFECTIVE SRH 200-400 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 50-60 KT. EXISTING CONVECTION MAY BECOME SFC-BASED AND SVR AS MORE FAVORABLE AIR MASS BUILDS INTO ITS VICNITY...AND/OR NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG WARM FRONT...AND/OR NRN NEB MCS ENTERS NRN PARTS OF AREA. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR NEW TSTMS IS CONDITIONAL GIVEN 18Z OAX RAOB SHOWING CAPPING THAT ACTUALLY STRENGTHENED SINCE 12Z. ANY SUSTAINED/SFC-BASED TSTM IN NEAR-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OFFERS RISK OF VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL...SVR GUSTS AND TORNADOES. ..EDWARDS.. 06/26/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 WAA wing developing with the Northern Nebraska MCS. DVN mentions the potential for a derecho event in their afternoon AFD... TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS. MCS IN NW NEB MAY BE THE START OF A SEVERE MCS THAT ROLLS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DVN CWA LATER TONIGHT. ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TRAINING OF STORMS IN A LINE TAKING SHAPE IN SE NEB INTO SW IA. THE LATEST HIGH RES HRRR SUGGESTS A SEVERE MCS TO ROLL ACROSS IA AND INTO THE DVN CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE MS RIVER ABOUT 07Z. THE 12Z ECM LOOKS SIMILAR WITH A LARGE MCS IMPACTING MUCH OF THE DVN CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TONIGHT ALONG WITH BAND OF 50+ KNOT MID LEVEL WINDS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST...AND DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO 70+ THE STAGE IS SET FOR A POSSIBLE DERECHO EVENT. WE ARE IN THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN THESE EVENTS BECOME MORE LIKELY. PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES SO TORRENTIAL RAINS POSE A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING THREAT. THIS WOULD BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY IF ANY TRAINING OF STORMS TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE. SCOTLAND..CLARK..HANCOCK AND MCDONOUGH COUNTIES HAVE FFG VALUES OF AN INCH OR LESS AND ARE VERY VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING. CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN OUR SOUTH BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE TRENDS BEFORE ISSUING. FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE GRIDS/ZFP. THE NORTH CWA CAN HANDLE MORE RAIN. MODELS ALSO BRING WARM 700 MB TEMPS INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT WHICH IMPLIES A CAP WHICH WOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION...WHICH ONLY COMPLICATES MATTERS. HOWEVER ANY STORMS ABLE TO MOVE ALONG THE CAP WOULD BE THAT MUCH MORE INTENSE. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK IN OUR SW 2/3RDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 I am watching just N and W of North Platte for possible initiation if that outflow boundary with the cluster to the N can initiate a few cells in that untapped and very unstable airmass north of the N Platte River Valley. might have to wait for stuff developing off the higher elevations to move east like y-day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 No tornado watch URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 559 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 500 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IOWA EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 500 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT. HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 700mb temps running between +12-17C across the "prime" area in SE. Nebraska/NW. Missouri/NE. Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 No tornado watch URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 559 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 500 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IOWA EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 500 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT. HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. Signifigant Tornado Parameter bust again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 looking at tomorrow...The 24hr RUC is onboard with GFS with alot of juice where is the NAM has alot less instablity due to ongoing precip/clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Signifigant Tornado Parameter bust again. Cap held until the MCS moved in. If it didn't hold, there would have been significant tornadoes. Not a bust technically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 looking at tomorrow...The 24hr RUC is onboard with GFS with alot of juice where is the NAM has alot less instablity due to ongoing precip/clouds. I would ignore the OP NAM, it has been shi*ty compared to the Para NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 looking at tomorrow...The 24hr RUC is onboard with GFS with alot of juice where is the NAM has alot less instablity due to ongoing precip/clouds. In terms of an overall severe setup for our backyards so far this year, I'd probably put tomorrow in the top 3 or 4. I think we could see an upgrade to moderate risk at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 In terms of an overall severe setup for our backyards so far this year, I'd probably put tomorrow in the top 3 or 4. I think we could see an upgrade to moderate risk at some point. I'm just hoping the worst doesn't miss us to the south and that it holds off till after 5pm but I don't see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 lol capping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 700mb temps running between +12-17C across the "prime" area in SE. Nebraska/NW. Missouri/NE. Kansas. Agitated CU field that was across this area is now diminishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Cap held until the MCS moved in. If it didn't hold, there would have been significant tornadoes. Not a bust technically. This is about the 10 th time you could have made that argument this year. Signifigant Tornado Parameter just isn't very useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Jesus...HJH and FNB are both at 86/79 in southeast NE with STJ at 88/77 as of 23z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 This is about the 10 th time you could have made that argument this year. Signifigant Tornado Parameter just isn't very useful. It's plenty useful if you know what you are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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