andyhb Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 The radar when it was north of Farmington... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Warmer mid level temps = more CAPE and more CAP. From what I have heard that is a crappy tradeoff and April is much better than June. Hardly any H% height falls to speak of, and when was then last time an EF4 or 5 occured in an area with +20C 850 Temps? It happens. How about the Roanoke Illinois F4 on July 13, 2004. There are probably some cases that are even more recent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 SREF is trying Monday edit: actually it has some 20's before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011 AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MID-MS VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE MODELS DEVELOP STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR WITH 70+ SFC DEWPOINTS EXTENDING FROM THE OZARKS NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASING AS STORMS MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WHERE THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DEVELOPING AN MCS. ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MID-MS AND OH VALLEY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 3000 TO 4500 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF MO...IL...IND AND WRN KY. THIS COMBINED WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS. A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY SOME TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST WITH DISCRETE STORMS INITIALLY. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD INCREASE AS THE MCS ORGANIZES AND STORMS CONGEAL INTO A LINE. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND 30 TO 40 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED A 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY WITH A SIG-HATCHED AREA FROM JUST NORTH OF ST LOUIS EWD TO INDIANAPOLIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 One of the better setups I've seen in awhile for South Dakota... ...NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/MO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY... AN INCREASINGLY MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS...CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/MO VALLEY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY...THIS MOISTURE INFLUX WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF A SHARPENING/NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY...AND TO THE EAST OF AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...TIED TO AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE SCENARIO /SYNOPSIS/...AMPLE HEIGHT FALLS/PERHAPS A LEAD MID LEVEL IMPULSE ARE LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO APPRECIABLE DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INITIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN WY/SOUTHEAST MT...AREAS NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SD/SOUTHEAST ND INTO WESTERN MN. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND/OR RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. CONSIDERABLY STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES...ATTENDANT TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH...WILL COINCIDE WITH A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM/MOIST SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY/MID EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD/NEB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 154 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN DUBOIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA... * UNTIL 230 AM CDT... * AT 149 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DUFF...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. * THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT... JASPER... HUNTINGBURG AND HUNTINGBURG AIRPORT... BRETZVILLE AND MALTERSVILLE... SAINT MARKS AND SAINT ANTHONY... KYANA AND CELESTINE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerWXman Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 meh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 scratch that...we now have 50.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Yeah, I'm thinking any storms that can develop in the Sioux Falls area could become tornadic pretty easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 scratch that...we now have 50.. All of the SREF members have development in E. Nebraska between 18-21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 26, 2011 Author Share Posted June 26, 2011 scratch that...we now have 50.. Certainly something I'd be monitoring, I wouldn't be surprised if a hatched area was introduced with the next day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 If the cap can erode in E Neb./W Iowa, there could be some serious problems in through there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 26, 2011 Author Share Posted June 26, 2011 The 4km SPC WRF however fires weak to modest convection early in the area (12-18z) then has a MCS move into that area after 06z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Wouldn't be surprised to see a moderate risk in the next day 1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 OAX... CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE PROBABLY A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY STRENGTHENING FROM THE WEAK IMPULSE THAT IS MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LIFT OVER A WARM FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS AND MISSOURI. A RENEWED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THIS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS...INCREASED THE POPS TO ABOUT 60 PERCENT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE TWO DIFFERENT FORCING MECHANISMS THIS AFTERNOON . SEVERE WEATHER IS CERTAINLY A CONCERN AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KTS... COMBINED WITH AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF CAPE BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY...CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH WIND AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. 0-1KM SHEAR OF 15-20KTS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A SMALL TORNADO CONCERN AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Wouldn't be surprised to see a moderate risk in the next day 1... Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1395.html crap-tons of CAPE and plenty of directional shear... gonna be a good day, Tater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 The HRRR is keeping the MDT risk area capped, this is a tough one on whether to head west or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 The HRRR is keeping the MDT risk area capped, this is a tough one on whether to head west or not. That's about the strongest signal you could ever get to go out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 26, 2011 Author Share Posted June 26, 2011 The HRRR is keeping the MDT risk area capped, this is a tough one on whether to head west or not. There is a chance it could be a long drive for nothing but if something were to go it would explode over that area. The chances are better in that it goes in that direction rather than it staying capped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 That's about the strongest signal you could ever get to go out there... you really think its gonna happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 We made it to Omaha in six hours last Monday . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 The HRRR is keeping the MDT risk area capped, this is a tough one on whether to head west or not. 12z HRRR has development between OMA and KC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 12z HRRR has development between OMA and KC. Just saw that on the new run. I unfortunately can't go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Well, there are Severe T-storms popping up to my west in Kansas right now, this area should be pretty mega capped. It's not outlooked. Not sure if there's a subtle wave firing these off or what. I've never seen this much mammatus in one year before, heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 based on activity in western neb/sd shouldnt have a ton of trouble firing stuff later to the east but kinda messy this a.m. lotsa moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Morning convection. Could be good or bad it leaves the atmosphere more moist but it sometimes stops daytime heating. Edit: 4/27 had a lat night, early morning round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Decided not to chase today due to the following concerns... -Capping issues. -Low clouds hanging around (Helping keep LCL's low, but preventing greater destabilization). -Current NE/SD border storms and possible upscale growth into an early MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 00Z GFS has erosion in the cap in eastern Nebraska... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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