Stebo Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Day 3/4 SPC outlook highlighting the plains for more severe convection, also the models advertise a fast zonal flow after Day5 across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2011 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WY...SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY...EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND ERN NY... ...SYNOPSIS... A MEANDERING ZONE OF POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND FROM WY...SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY BEFORE ARCING NEWD INTO SRN NY. THIS ZONE OF POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION IS ALONG THE SRN FRINGES OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR DEEP CONVECTION. ...WY INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME. ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG...SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT WILL PROVE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND SUPERCELLS. MOIST ELY COMPONENT IN LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH SHOULD ENSURE A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF UPDRAFTS EVOLVE...BOTH OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE EVIDENT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MIGRATE TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS AIDED BY LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG NOSE OF LLJ. WHILE LARGE HAIL MAY BE THE GREATEST THREAT...TORNADOES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED GIVEN THAT SFC DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY CREEP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS EXTREME ERN WY. DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2011 VALID 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE U.S. DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...THOUGH THE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON THIS EVOLUTION. PRIOR TO A MORE SUBSIDENT FLOW REGIME OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BENEATH MODEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT. IT APPEARS STRONG DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WRN FRINGE OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROVE ADEQUATE IN STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM ERN MT/WRN ND...SWD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE SATURDAY. ORGANIZED ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THIS REGION DAY5 BUT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT IN LATER PERIODS SO CONFIDENCE WANES SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. Figured I was a billion posts in, so wouldn't hurt to start a thread for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Right on cue with the summer solstice, the GFS is advertising one of my favorite types of events for tomorrow night... The massive overnight MCS pushing SSE out of eastern CO and southern KS into Oklahoma. Maybe it's all the hatching insects or something, but the gust fronts from these are ultra-bright on radar, and push well out in front. Birds are zipping around, little micro-vortices are spinning up all over the place. A lot to see. Actually seems like climo has been pushed back by 4-7 days or something this year, anecdotally I feel like we usually get these events a little bit earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chad A Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 It's also my favorite time of year in and around the Black Hills and western SD. Right as the ridge builds in from the east, there seems to be a week or two of southeast surface flow into that region. They need southeast flow to bring in the upper 50s and lower 60s dews... even a straight south flow will dry it out. Storms fire in the Black Hills and sometimes in the Badlands, move east off the hills and into the plains overnight. It's these occurrences in the summer that really enhanced my love of weather, being able to get out on the bike... sit around til around 2 or 3 and watch the towering cu up in the hills grow in to rotating meso's Now, I just watch from afar, one radar and wait for these to move off the plains and into eastern NE, waking me up at 2 or 3 in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 I'm watching for a potential chase on saturday around the KC area into northern MO. The 12z NAM def looks interesting with backed sfc winds along the warm front and WNW flow at H5 with good moisture and instability to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 I'm watching for a potential chase on saturday around the KC area into northern MO. The 12z NAM def looks interesting with backed sfc winds along the warm front and WNW flow at H5 with good moisture and instability to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 It's also my favorite time of year in and around the Black Hills and western SD. Right as the ridge builds in from the east, there seems to be a week or two of southeast surface flow into that region. They need southeast flow to bring in the upper 50s and lower 60s dews... even a straight south flow will dry it out. Storms fire in the Black Hills and sometimes in the Badlands, move east off the hills and into the plains overnight. It's these occurrences in the summer that really enhanced my love of weather, being able to get out on the bike... sit around til around 2 or 3 and watch the towering cu up in the hills grow in to rotating meso's Now, I just watch from afar, one radar and wait for these to move off the plains and into eastern NE, waking me up at 2 or 3 in the morning Totally agree. I love Black Hills convection. Some of the most unique convection because they receive enhancement via slope flows and enhanced convergent boundaries, but they also have an influence of higher dewpoint values of the lower surrounding plains than the other ranges across the high plains in WY/CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 50% Torn probs in a tornado watch issued in a region with only 2% probs on the 1630 outlook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 50% Torn probs in a tornado watch issued in a region with only 2% probs on the 1630 outlook? Yeah especially since the same forecaster put out the watch and the Day 1 outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 50% Torn probs in a tornado watch issued in a region with only 2% probs on the 1630 outlook? One is a probability of 2+ tornadoes over a roughly 40,000 square mile area, the other is within 25 miles of a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Totally agree. I love Black Hills convection. Some of the most unique convection because they receive enhancement via slope flows and enhanced convergent boundaries, but they also have an influence of higher dewpoint values of the lower surrounding plains than the other ranges across the high plains in WY/CO. Right where tornados belong, over baren land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Southern Saskatchewan TORNADO WARNING ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:07 PM CST THURSDAY 23 JUNE 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TORNADO WARNING FOR: =NEW= R.M. OF ARLINGTON INCLUDING DOLLARD =NEW= R.M. OF GRASSY CREEK INCLUDING SHAUNAVON. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== AT 7:00 PM CST, ENVIRONMENT CANADA METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR SHAUNAVON CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. GOLF BALL HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. THIS IS A WARNING THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN THESE REGIONS. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS. TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Dr. Greg Forbes MONDAY Severe thunderstorm and isolated tornado outbreak in central, east, south WI, MI, north and central IL, east IA, north and central MO, southeast KS, north and central IN, north OH, north-central to southwest OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 ^ I'm going to a Tigers game and the Detroit Fireworks on Monday...so it'll probably happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Here is warning text you do not see often. This comes from the National Weather Service in Birmingham AL: BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 451 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN ALABAMA... SOUTHWESTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN ALABAMA... NORTHERN SHELBY COUNTY IN ALABAMA... CENTRAL TALLADEGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 530 PM CDT * AT 449 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A DEVELOPING LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BALD ROCK TO BLUFF PARK...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HOOVER...PELHAM...PELL CITY...CHELSEA...ROSS BRIDGE...BLUFF PARK... GREYSTONE AND LAKE PURDY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 12Z SPC 4km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Dr. Greg ForbesMONDAY north-central to southwest OK. I'm not fully sold on that...especially with the ridge over the state... Sure there's a pseudo dryline and a warm front...but that ridge doesn't do much for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 I see some rotation near Perryville Mo.. Notmuch going on today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Monday still looks kinda interesting. NAM in particular is hinting at nicely backed low level flow in northern/central IL and IN with mid level winds of 40-50 kts. Overall setup looks favorable for a nice MCS with all modes of svr on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 This is just the HRRR sucking... I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Monday still looks kinda interesting. NAM in particular is hinting at nicely backed low level flow in northern/central IL and IN with mid level winds of 40-50 kts. Overall setup looks favorable for a nice MCS with all modes of svr on the table. Indeed. With the amount of low-level turning, one would think that even an MCS would be the kind with perhaps an abnormally high tornado production rate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 I would say the cap broke in Missouri Yeah. The tor-warned storm looked good for a few scans until it merged with the other storm right near it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 This was about 20 mins ago which prompted the tornado warning on the sup in MO..75kt g2g Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 [Jersey Co, IL] trained spotter reports HAIL of grapefruit size (E4.00 INCH) at 08:00 PM CDT -- many 1 to 2 inch stones with a few up to 4 inches dang impressive, level 2 marker only has it at 1.30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Impressive bow echo in northern North Dakota/southern Manitoba right now. Ping pong sized hail and wind gusts exceeding 70 mph reported. Nice event for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 It certainly looks like the warm front will be active tonight and should provide quite an electric show for affected areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Warmer mid level temps = more CAPE and more CAP. From what I have heard that is a crappy tradeoff and April is much better than June. Hardly any H% height falls to speak of, and when was then last time an EF4 or 5 occured in an area with +20C 850 Temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Whoa, pretty intense supercell NW of Farmington, MO right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 26, 2011 Author Share Posted June 26, 2011 Whoa, pretty intense supercell NW of Farmington, MO right now. MOC186-187-260445- /O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0130.000000T0000Z-110626T0445Z/ STE. GENEVIEVE MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO- 1118 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. FRANCOIS AND STE. GENEVIEVE COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT... AT 1110 PM CDT...MISSOURI HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR BONNE TERRE WITH THIS STORM. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! SEEK SHELTER NOW! THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED BETWEEN BONNE TERRE AND DESLOGE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ROCKY RIDGE...WEINGARTEN...COFFMAN...LEADINGTON...FRENCH VILLAGE AND RIVER AUX VASES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Warmer mid level temps = more CAPE and more CAP. From what I have heard that is a crappy tradeoff and April is much better than June. Hardly any H% height falls to speak of, and when was then last time an EF4 or 5 occured in an area with +20C 850 Temps? It looks like they were around +18 here on May 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Amazing lightning show here in Western Illinois this evening. I was at a drive in so I had a great 360 view and a dark sky. Probably the best lightning display I've ever seen. Not sure how much rain we got this evening but we got almost 3 inches this morning. Good buddy of mine is in Florrisant, Mo is without power right now. It went out around 11:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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