mattie g Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Nice morning in Burke. A little humid, but otherwise pleasant. It did have the feeling of a potentially stormy day. Kind of like when the birds go nuts before a big snowstorm. I'd like to mow the back lawn today, so someone do me a favor and keep any convective activity in your back pocket until about 5:00. Sound good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 A bit sticky here in Calverton, MD but nice sun out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 i was going to bring my camera to work but i didnt. i technically forgot it but maybe that means no storms. sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 i was going to bring my camera to work but i didnt. i technically forgot it but maybe that means no storms. sorry. The last time you wanted to bring your camera and forgot it, it was more or less a bust. So maybe that is good news for us today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 1300 SPC OTLK still looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 i was going to bring my camera to work but i didnt. i technically forgot it but maybe that means no storms. sorry. Well, I forgot my badge, witch means no garage parking, which means it's going to pour buckets of lambs blood as soon as I try to walk to the car. So it would appear we have a paradox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 The last time you wanted to bring your camera and forgot it, it was more or less a bust. So maybe that is good news for us today. maybe.. maybe. you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Well, I forgot my badge, witch means no garage parking, which means it's going to pour buckets of lambs blood as soon as I try to walk to the car. So it would appear we have a paradox. sounds like a dc split coming up :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Well, I forgot my badge, witch means no garage parking, which means it's going to pour buckets of lambs blood as soon as I try to walk to the car. So it would appear we have a paradox. witch? hahahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 witch? hahahah 1 outta too ain't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 1 outta too ain't bad. twoche Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1022 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2011 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --EARLY MORNING SHRA ARE PRETTY MUCH GONE...AND ACTIVITY THAT HAD DEVELOPED NEAR RNK HAS ALSO FIZZLED SOMEWHAT. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED POPS THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH A ROGUE SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY. THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS A LITTLE QUESTION MARK AFTER IT FOR ME AT THIS POINT. ANALYSIS OF THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES WE HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON... IF CLOUDS DO NOT INHIBIT HEATING. THERE ARE STILL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BUT THEY SEEM TO BE FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN AS THE MORNING GOES ON. CURRENT THINKING...AND THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS BACK THIS UP...IS AN EVEN FURTHER DELAY IN CONVECTION...PERHAPS EVEN AS LATE AS 2 OR 3 PM. ONCE IT DOES GET GOING...LIKELY ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...IT SHOULD THEN PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND POPS WERE LOWERED THERE. SVR POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS BUT AS PREV FCSTR MENTIONED...IT IS DEPENDENT ON HEATING/INSTABILITY WHICH REMAINS TO BE REALIZED. ATMOSPHERE IS PRETTY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SO ISOLATED SVR WIND...MARGINAL SVR HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY WANE BY MID-EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHRA/TSRA WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 LWX updated disc EARLY MORNING SHRA ARE PRETTY MUCH GONE...AND ACTIVITY THAT HAD DEVELOPED NEAR RNK HAS ALSO FIZZLED SOMEWHAT. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED POPS THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH A ROGUE SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY. THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS A LITTLE QUESTION MARK AFTER IT FOR ME AT THIS POINT. ANALYSIS OF THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES WE HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON... IF CLOUDS DO NOT INHIBIT HEATING. THERE ARE STILL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BUT THEY SEEM TO BE FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN AS THE MORNING GOES ON. CURRENT THINKING...AND THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS BACK THIS UP...IS AN EVEN FURTHER DELAY IN CONVECTION...PERHAPS EVEN AS LATE AS 2 OR 3 PM. ONCE IT DOES GET GOING...LIKELY ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...IT SHOULD THEN PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND POPS WERE LOWERED THERE. SVR POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS BUT AS PREV FCSTR MENTIONED...IT IS DEPENDENT ON HEATING/INSTABILITY WHICH REMAINS TO BE REALIZED. ATMOSPHERE IS PRETTY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SO ISOLATED SVR WIND...MARGINAL SVR HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY WANE BY MID-EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHRA/TSRA WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 LWX, clouds? Been plenty of sun here and 80/72. Cape is 2K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 LWX, clouds? Been plenty of sun here and 80/72. Cape is 2K It clouded up here in the city for a bit, sun is back out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Warm and humid with some sun beginning to shine for the first time in N MD. I just planted some petunias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 LWX, clouds? Been plenty of sun here and 80/72. Cape is 2K Definitely in and out here. Jumped 4 degrees in a half-hour with a break in the clouds, but then back down two when they returned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Definitely in and out here. Jumped 4 degrees in a half-hour with a break in the clouds, but then back down two when they returned. Ya but they aren't that much to really limit destabilization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Ya but they aren't that much to really limit destabilization. Agree, they are thinning out nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Ya but they aren't that much to really limit destabilization. That's what they want you to think. And then they will screw us anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 destabilization is not an issue imo tho we have less eml today it seems so im not sure we're really on par with yesterday in that respect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 That's what they want you to think. And then they will screw us anyway. Ah yes, evil clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Sun is coming out full bore around here. Sticky, nasty right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 12Z NAM has nada Lastest RUC also has nothing HRRR has stuff coming through between 2 and 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 It looks like the lwx arw and nnm 4w have some interesting stuff between 2-5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 gfs has nada. looks like there is a shortwave in wv tho so maybe the models are just missing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 It looks like the lwx arw and nnm 4w have some interesting stuff between 2-5pm. Care to post images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 15 hail/wind 2 tor on 1630 OTLK... disco favors cold pools and damaging wind threat... development off lee trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... INITIAL AREA OF LIKELY CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS THE LEE TROUGH FROM PA TO VA WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL FOCUS INITIATION WITHIN A VERY MOIST POTENTIALLY MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MID LEVEL STRONGER FLOW WILL BE INCREASING EWD ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF COLD POOLS AND A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FURTHER S INTO CAROLINAS HAVE INCREASED THE SEVERE THREAT FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS COLD POOLS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM THE STORMS FURTHER W AND THEN MOVE INTO EXPECTED STRONG INSTABILITY OVER CAROLINAS WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN OVERALL SHEAR PROFILES OF 25KT OR SO SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN FORWARD PROPAGATING COLD POOLS THRU THE EVENING GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MLCAPES AOA 1500 J/KG AND DCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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