EasternUSWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Not bad. http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace.cgi?model=NAM&fcsthr=024&STATIONID=KHGR http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace.cgi?model=NAM&fcsthr=024&STATIONID=KIAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Pretty rare to get thunderstorms moving in from the NW, and six hours later have more moving up from the SW. Also pretty rare to still have 2000 Cape around here at midnight. But, hey it's happening tonight. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Pretty rare to get thunderstorms moving in from the NW, and six hours later have more moving up from the SW. I think they were running down the base of the near-surface warm front. The whole batch was slowly moving north/NE with the cells running southeast along it. Now the upper level warm front is pushing through so the flow is fully from the sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Thursday doesn't look to bad either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I'm getting lightning here form a storm pretty far away. Nice 65 DBZers to my west. Trixie should be seeing the lightning if she is around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Storm popping over eastern MD now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Also pretty rare to still have 2000 Cape around here at midnight. But, hey it's happening tonight. lol eml.. thanks plains drought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 If we get anything tomorrow, would be nice to have some better 0-6km and effective shear... I think thats what screwed up today's severe weather chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I have a good feeling about tonight. We certainly need the rain. I haven't had to water my plants since last Wednesday. Let's keep it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Lightning here is sick. Red bolts and bright flashes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 frequent lightning to my west, southwest, and even northwest. think this line might miss us. You getting red lightning there? It is pretty neat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXW176 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Awesome pics Hank! I caught the following using my Wife's P & S just down the road from you at 7:59 pm: Two minutes later, I managed to catch a few decent bolts but the results didn't come out so well so I, umm, touched up the next pic. I should probably get my own camera: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 You getting red lightning there? It is pretty neat. Red lightning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Ummmmm. Yeah. Not a drop and my house yet. I shouldn't have lost faith in the DC split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Red lightning? Probably Sprites which appear as luminous reddish-orange flashes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Some good stuff brewing over the Delmarva, I hope it comes this way. Here are the latest lightning strikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Of course. Line gets near me and goodbye. Now eastern PA/MD randomly getting storms. Sigh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 Probably Sprites which appear as luminous reddish-orange flashes. HAH no. Sprites occur visibly waaaaay up above the clouds, and they are difficult to see with the naked eye. The most likely cause would be contaminants in the air between you and the bolt that would absorb the other visible wavelengths, leaving only a reddish-looking bolt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 HAH no. Sprites occur visibly waaaaay up above the clouds, and they are difficult to see with the naked eye. The most likely cause would be contaminants in the air between you and the bolt that would absorb the other visible wavelengths, leaving only a reddish-looking bolt. Ya probably all the haze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 All this talk and no reflectivity and/or SRM wind images/loops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 ..CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS/MID-ATLANTIC AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE... AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM WCNTRL PA SSEWD INTO MD AND ERN VA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 40 TO 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...CONVECTION MAY TEND TO LINE OUT. THIS WOULD FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE GREATER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Some lightning pics I grabbed, enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Slight risk for next three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Things are already popping this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 A morning round can sometimes be good for afternoon activity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 A morning round can sometimes be good for afternoon activity! Models aren't showing much for later, even the NAM is a bit dry. Except this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 LWX morning disc THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING SOMEWHAT AND LIKELY DELAY ONSET OF DIURNAL CONVECTION UNTIL THE ERY TO MID AFTN. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG A SFC TROUGH FORMING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS LIFT FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCE BECOMES JUXTAPOSED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. LOCAL WRF-ARW AND HRRR-WRF SIMULATES CONVECTION ORGANIZING INTO BKN LINE SEGMENTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE MID AFTN. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. BASED ON CURRENT FCST OF AFTN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND MODEST BUT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD MODERATE CAPE VALUES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. COMBINED WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE AND BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAIL THREAT WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY WARM THERMAL PROFILES THOUGH. SPC HAS PLACED AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN A SLIGHT RISK TDA. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVE ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 AS THE SFC TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD...BEFORE WANING DURING THE LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL LINGER INTO THE OVNGT AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 RUC has a little something later too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 LWX morning disc Sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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