yoda Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 SLGT gets pulled way back into the OH VLY for Wednesday... 5% risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 this system blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 East coast severe weather blows Fixed that for ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 this system blows Lock the thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 I'd trade severe weather for what is over TN south today. Many rounds of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1340.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 LWX afternoon disco: Near term /through Wednesday/... h9-8 warm front atop County warning forecast area...but slowly moving through. A cluster of thunderstorms entering far southwestern County warning forecast area seems to be residing along the 800 mb boundary. Ovrall flow pttn reflects the upa ridge. While there will be sufficient insolation to yield MDT instability...enough for scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain to develop... their covering and intensity will be limited. Mountains will remain preferred. Expect addtl precipitation cluster to bump into ridge tonight...and thus hvnt changed pop forecast too much. Hiest numbers reside across northern Maryland...nearest convergence from warm front. Lotsa debris clouds...which will interfere west/ any fog formation in spite of a humid /dewpts near 70f/ air mass. Min-T not too far off from those dewpoints. As warm front aloft continues to push northeastward...County warning forecast area will be more west/in the warm sector tmrw. Ridge axis will be a bit further eastward too...so thunderstorms from upper ohvly will have a better chance at surviving. The perferred location for thunderstorms remains across northern Maryland due to proximity to triggering boundaries. However...air mass will be equally humid and unsheared throughout...supportive of a Lee surface trough. Given that setup...strong slow moving thunderstorms could develop anywhere. As anticipated for those dewpoints...precipitable waters rather high /close to 1.75in/. Will keep the theme of hiest probability of precipitation in the afternoon...likely north and chance S. Heavy rains and local downburst winds primary threats. There seems to be a bit too much debris around to support mav maxt /lwr-middle 90s a-plenty/...so chose a rte slightly warmer than the met. && Short term /Wednesday night through Friday night/... middle-Atlantic will reside in southwesterly l/mlvl flow through Friday with upper trough over Great Lakes and subtropical ridging across southeastern Continental U.S.. scattered cnvctn Wednesday night should wane diurnally as instability decreases...but will likely increase in covering and intensity by Thursday afternoon. In addition to Lee trough that will remain in place over the area...convergence in association with cold front moving across Appalachians should aid in cnvctn Thursday afternoon. Highly unstable atmosphere and decent 0-6km wind shear should support strong updrafts/organized clusters of thunderstorms...with risk of severe weather across County Warning Area during afternoon and evening. Activity should again diminish a bit overnight but redevelop by Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be near/slightly above normal...with maxima avgg in u80s and minima from m60s to l70s. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Cool radar shot. It's looks like the OH river is triggering storms along it's path through KY. Is this coincidence or is this terrain related? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Cool radar shot. It's looks like the OH river is triggering storms along it's path through KY. Is this coincidence or is this terrain related? sure is...but just a coincidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Lock the thread! It would be great if we could focus on Thu/Fri... not sure why there's so much discussion about today and tomorrow, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 It would be great if we could focus on Thu/Fri... not sure why there's so much discussion about today and tomorrow, anyway. you shouldnt have caved and put today/tomorrow in the title.. plus thurs/fri are probably going to be lame svr-wise as well.. trend is further north with the low lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Individual cells merging into a line about to move into WV from the southwest. They have pretty decent height to them with hail. Plenty of daytime heating left before they get to mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 cell right over 70 has tops to 45k now.. not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Could have sworn I just heard a couple rumbles of thunder. Edit: In looking at the radar, it seems my ears didn't mislead me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Just got slammed here in Roanoke. Made a report to the NWS for nickel to quarter sized hail along with some heavy winds and very heavy rain. Storm of the year so far. Doppler radar was indicating up to golf ball size hail at about the time of this screen capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 cell right over 70 has tops to 45k now.. not bad I predict the first 2 cells to pass by to our north and south and the one behind it to rain itself out over before getting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 I thought I heard thunder too... developing cell to my WSW... looks like a lil convergence zone/boundary that the storms are developing on? http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LWX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 90 at HGR with a 50 kft top. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Cell north of MRB looking pretty nice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Not bad for pulse storms... stuff in WV looks decently organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Cell north of MRB looking pretty nice.. Its sitting right over me with nearly continuous thunder and huge drops of rain. As high a cloud tops as you'll ever see. No wind. But what's so unique about it is that the temp has barely dropped. 83 is hot for being in a pouring rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Down in SW VA, but still BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 535 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN ROANOKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTERN CITY OF SALEM IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA * UNTIL 630 PM EDT. * AT 531 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEN EGG SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CHRISTIANSBURG TO SHAWSVILLE... AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CHRISTIANSBURG... SHAWSVILLE... ELLISTON... ELLISTON-LAFAYETTE... POAGES MILL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 56 dbz at 44 kft. Tops at 53 kft on the MRB storm. This storm has gone nuts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 STW for Bedford/Franklin counties in RNK CWA for destructive winds in excess of 70 mph and baseball sized hail BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 542 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA SOUTHERN BEDFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA * UNTIL 645 PM EDT. * AT 539 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BURNT CHIMNEY...OR 8 MILES EAST OF BOONES MILL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 i wonder if this is on the 800mb warm front they mentioned earlier in the lwx disco.. seems it would have moved north since then so it could be. i dunno if it can do it but that cell is trying to be a supercell. it's about to start running into higher parameters if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 STW on it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 612 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... CENTRAL BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 700 PM EDT * AT 608 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF MARTINSBURG...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MARTINSBURG... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Never seen such a structure.. It would be nice to have dual-pol ZdR on this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 got some rotation in the higher levels.. i guess we could call it a sup if it holds tho bulk shear is kinda crappy in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 i wonder if this is on the 800mb warm front they mentioned earlier in the lwx disco.. seems it would have moved north since then so it could be. i dunno if it can do it but that cell is trying to be a supercell. it's about to start running into higher parameters if it holds. SPC Meso suggests some good parameters... Supercell parameter of 4 in Loudoun Cty. Derecho composite of 4 3000-4000 SBCAPE and 2000-3000 MUCAPE on the 2100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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