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June 21-24 Severe Obs/Disc.


Ellinwood

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LWX afternoon disco:

Near term /through Wednesday/...

h9-8 warm front atop County warning forecast area...but slowly moving through. A cluster of thunderstorms

entering far southwestern County warning forecast area seems to be residing along the 800 mb boundary.

Ovrall flow pttn reflects the upa ridge. While there will be sufficient

insolation to yield MDT instability...enough for scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain to develop...

their covering and intensity will be limited. Mountains will remain preferred.

Expect addtl precipitation cluster to bump into ridge tonight...and thus hvnt changed

pop forecast too much. Hiest numbers reside across northern Maryland...nearest convergence

from warm front. Lotsa debris clouds...which will interfere west/ any fog

formation in spite of a humid /dewpts near 70f/ air mass. Min-T not too

far off from those dewpoints.

As warm front aloft continues to push northeastward...County warning forecast area will be more west/in the warm

sector tmrw. Ridge axis will be a bit further eastward too...so thunderstorms from upper

ohvly will have a better chance at surviving. The perferred location for

thunderstorms remains across northern Maryland due to proximity to triggering boundaries.

However...air mass will be equally humid and unsheared throughout...supportive of a

Lee surface trough. Given that setup...strong slow moving thunderstorms could develop

anywhere. As anticipated for those dewpoints...precipitable waters rather high /close

to 1.75in/. Will keep the theme of hiest probability of precipitation in the afternoon...likely north and

chance S. Heavy rains and local downburst winds primary threats. There seems

to be a bit too much debris around to support mav maxt /lwr-middle 90s

a-plenty/...so chose a rte slightly warmer than the met.

&&

Short term /Wednesday night through Friday night/...

middle-Atlantic will reside in southwesterly l/mlvl flow through Friday with upper trough over

Great Lakes and subtropical ridging across southeastern Continental U.S.. scattered cnvctn Wednesday

night should wane diurnally as instability decreases...but will likely

increase in covering and intensity by Thursday afternoon. In addition to Lee trough

that will remain in place over the area...convergence in association with

cold front moving across Appalachians should aid in cnvctn Thursday afternoon. Highly unstable

atmosphere and decent 0-6km wind shear should support strong

updrafts/organized clusters of thunderstorms...with risk of severe weather across County Warning Area

during afternoon and evening. Activity should again diminish a bit overnight but

redevelop by Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be near/slightly above normal...with

maxima avgg in u80s and minima from m60s to l70s.

&&

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It would be great if we could focus on Thu/Fri... not sure why there's so much discussion about today and tomorrow, anyway.

you shouldnt have caved and put today/tomorrow in the title.. ;) plus thurs/fri are probably going to be lame svr-wise as well.. trend is further north with the low lately.

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Just got slammed here in Roanoke. Made a report to the NWS for nickel to quarter sized hail along with some heavy winds and very heavy rain. Storm of the year so far.:thumbsup:

Doppler radar was indicating up to golf ball size hail at about the time of this screen capture.

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Cell north of MRB looking pretty nice..

Its sitting right over me with nearly continuous thunder and huge drops of rain. As high a cloud tops as you'll ever see. No wind.

But what's so unique about it is that the temp has barely dropped. 83 is hot for being in a pouring rain.

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Down in SW VA, but still

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA

535 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN ROANOKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA

SOUTHWESTERN CITY OF SALEM IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA

CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT.

* AT 531 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEN EGG SIZE

HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE

LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CHRISTIANSBURG TO SHAWSVILLE...

AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

CHRISTIANSBURG...

SHAWSVILLE...

ELLISTON...

ELLISTON-LAFAYETTE...

POAGES MILL...

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STW for Bedford/Franklin counties in RNK CWA for destructive winds in excess of 70 mph and baseball sized hail :unsure::o

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA

542 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA

SOUTHERN BEDFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT.

* AT 539 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL...AND

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

BURNT CHIMNEY...OR 8 MILES EAST OF BOONES MILL...AND MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

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i wonder if this is on the 800mb warm front they mentioned earlier in the lwx disco.. seems it would have moved north since then so it could be. i dunno if it can do it but that cell is trying to be a supercell. it's about to start running into higher parameters if it holds.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

612 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...

NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...

CENTRAL BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 608 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF

QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS

LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF MARTINSBURG...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10

MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

MARTINSBURG...

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i wonder if this is on the 800mb warm front they mentioned earlier in the lwx disco.. seems it would have moved north since then so it could be. i dunno if it can do it but that cell is trying to be a supercell. it's about to start running into higher parameters if it holds.

SPC Meso suggests some good parameters... Supercell parameter of 4 in Loudoun Cty. Derecho composite of 4 :lol:

3000-4000 SBCAPE and 2000-3000 MUCAPE on the 2100

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