Avdave Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Can I preemptively MEH the entire week? I have done it already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 still not sold on anything much of note tomorrow... gfs does have higher qpf over the area after 0z so seems like something there. maybe off the hills? warm front seems to go thru a bit early.. perhaps midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 still not sold on anything much of note tomorrow... gfs does have higher qpf over the area after 0z so seems like something there. maybe off the hills? warm front seems to go thru a bit early.. perhaps midday. Meh number 1 issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Meh number 1 issued. well was never that excited. i forgot not to mention parameters when yoda is around. we may still see something. the low is slooooow. the far eastern flank has been quiet today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 still not sold on anything much of note tomorrow... gfs does have higher qpf over the area after 0z so seems like something there. maybe off the hills? warm front seems to go thru a bit early.. perhaps midday. Well we need the WF to clear by then so we can clear out and get heating. LWX has highs near 90 tomorrow... afternoon clearing should help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Well we need the WF to clear by then so we can clear out and get heating. LWX has highs near 90 tomorrow... afternoon clearing should help It's just a small window. If the WF gets too far north we'll have trouble initiating outside elevation. If it comes thru too early it's muddled probably. We don't do well on low probability events usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 It's just a small window. If the WF gets too far north we'll have trouble initiating outside elevation. If it comes thru too early it's muddled probably. We don't do well on low probability events usually. We don't do well on high probability events either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 It's just a small window. If the WF gets too far north we'll have trouble initiating outside elevation. If it comes thru too early it's muddled probably. We don't do well on low probability events usually. WF clears by noon... storms by 3-4 pm developing should be good enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Tomorrows slight is removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Tomorrows slight is removed. meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 06z NAM and GFS are very different at the end of the period (Friday afternoon)... NAM has a more amplified system with an entirely different orientation of the jet streak. No matter which way you slice it, both models are in agreement that winds should be largely unidirectional across most of the region on Friday. However, there is tornadic potential further north in PA according to the GFS, where the left-exit region of the jet streak and better directional shear will be. GFS also tries to pull in drier dewpoints around the main low and into the Mid-Atlantic, which could crush our hopes and dreams Thursday and Friday as LCLs jump into a much less favorable range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 MEH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Thursday's outlook (Day 3): ...UPPER OH VALLEY TO NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC... SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS EASES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES-TN VALLEY. THIS UPPER FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN MODEST SWLY FLOW...ON THE ORDER OF 40KT AT 500MB...FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TN INTO UPSTATE NY. WHILE IT/S NOT OBVIOUS HOW FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ALONG ADVANCING FRONT...IT APPEARS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK REGION WILL ENCOURAGE TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z WITHIN A FLOW REGIME THAT SHOULD FAVOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...OR AT LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Well I hope for some storms today... but probably won't see any till later tonight. I hope we get some severe weather tomorrow or Thursday. Ian and Ellinwood, you guys were correc about today, I was not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 i like tomorrow ... not sure how svr we get but models are consistent pushing a spoke of energy through during the afternoon/evening. this storm has some issues going forward as noted previously. generally a stacked/decaying system is not going to produce as well as a healthier one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 i like tomorrow ... not sure how svr we get but models are consistent pushing a spoke of energy through during the afternoon/evening. this storm has some issues going forward as noted previously. generally a stacked/decaying system is not going to produce as well as a healthier one. I hope we can get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Well I hope for some storms today... but probably won't see any till later tonight. I hope we get some severe weather tomorrow or Thursday. Ian and Ellinwood, you guys were correc about today, I was not Would not give up on today yet. Shear and instability is there and there are storms forming in OH/WV/PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 I hope we can get something. yeah, like something that doesn't knock out power at my house aaaaaaagain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 i like tomorrow ... not sure how svr we get but models are consistent pushing a spoke of energy through during the afternoon/evening. this storm has some issues going forward as noted previously. generally a stacked/decaying system is not going to produce as well as a healthier one. I read that comment about a vort coming through in the disco so it gives me slight optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 I read that comment about a vort coming through in the disco so it gives me slight optimism. wed has looked more widespread for a while.. perhaps more than later in the week even, tho it's a bit early still to see details. everything is a bit west of optimal at mid-lvls but it's not terrible. spc should move their slight southward a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Sun trying to break through here. I presume afternoon heating would be a requirement to try and eek out a storm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Sun here in Columbia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Check out the Composite Reflectivity from the latest HRRR. Around hour 10 we get some good action! http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2011062114&plotName=cref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3&wjet=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Check out the Composite Reflectivity from the latest HRRR. Around hour 10 we get some good action! http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2011062114&plotName=cref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3&wjet=1 Looks interesting... but we have seen this before and nothing came out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Looks interesting... but we have seen this before and nothing came out of it NAM says naso much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 hrr is forming it off convection which should be in va already that is not. there does seem to be a mechanism passing through wv tho. you'd think it would want to go se but the ridge axis is building in so maybe it would go more east. worth watching i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 NAM says naso much A bit confused. I was saying it looked interesting, but we have seen it that way before and produce nothing. Are you saying that the NAM shows nothing, or looks like the HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 A bit confused. I was saying it looked interesting, but we have seen it that way before and produce nothing. Are you saying that the NAM shows nothing, or looks like the HRRR? Shows nothing... sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Shows nothing... sorry. Ah ok. Just wanted to be sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Ah ok. Just wanted to be sure Indeed - I should have replied to the other post and said "NAM says naso much" ...its been a long day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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