NinjaWarrior2 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 CAPE looks marginal so far, 500-2000 the next couple afternoons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 granted.. i rarely go back and look at old threads as the images often disappear and it's not like all the commentary is shining. but often you dont know when an event will turn "special". i'd almost rather have a seperate thread for every possibility of a weather event. Yeah that is a recurring problem when people link images rather than attach - I generally try to attach unless not possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 CAPE looks marginal so far, 500-2000 the next couple afternoons. I don't know if I would consider 2000 marginal lol. 500 yes but 1500+ is decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 wed we're closer to the upper support. tomorrow we're more likely to end up not having anything to trigger a storm. it's more that if one goes it could be fun. Wednesday the SREF shows nothing really... it continues tolike tomorrow afternoon... I think its going to be one of those days where storms will form on the WF with t h heating of the day as it goes by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Wednesday the SREF shows nothing really... it continues tolike tomorrow afternoon... I think its going to be one of those days where storms will form on the WF with t h heating of the day as it goes by you can see a little spoke of energy on the 12z nam wed afternoon.. would probably be enough to roll stuff out of the hills http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_500_054m.gif both days are rather perilous but tomorrow would probably have more svr potential if something is realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Wednesday the SREF shows nothing really... it continues tolike tomorrow afternoon... I think its going to be one of those days where storms will form on the WF with t h heating of the day as it goes by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 <snip> Paramters... not the maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Paramters... not the maps Cape looks fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I think Yoda's speaking from a purely severe-wx standpoint. There's less chance of widespread showers/rain tomorrow, but what does develop has a higher chance of going severe. Wednesday looks like a better chance that everyone gets some rainshowers, but lower prob of severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I think Yoda's speaking from a purely severe-wx standpoint. There's less chance of widespread showers/rain tomorrow, but what does develop has a higher chance of going severe. Wednesday looks like a better chance that everyone gets some rainshowers, but lower prob of severe. parameters only mean so much if nothing fires. yoda needs to look at all guidance available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I think Yoda's speaking from a purely severe-wx standpoint. There's less chance of widespread showers/rain tomorrow, but what does develop has a higher chance of going severe. Wednesday looks like a better chance that everyone gets some rainshowers, but lower prob of severe. I agree tomorrow looks good as well. I wouldn't doubt getting a slight risk. Cape is 2000+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 parameters only mean so much if nothing fires. yoda needs to look at all guidance available. I was going through the severe weather parameters - tornado, supercell, derecho and the such - and comparing the two days. Tuesday was much better looking than Wednesday. True CAPE might be better, but it seems like the better "threat" is tomorrow. Plus I like stuf firing with the WF... always seems to do well considering the CF is so far away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Can I have a little background on what can come as a result of the set-up on Thursday. From someone who doesn't know much about the set-up, they would think nothing is likely then. However, I know it has some potential looking at a few things, anyone care to elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Decent for tomorrow i'd say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Wednesday not bad either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I was going through the severe weather parameters - tornado, supercell, derecho and the such - and comparing the two days. Tuesday was much better looking than Wednesday. True CAPE might be better, but it seems like the better "threat" is tomorrow. Plus I like stuf firing with the WF... always seems to do well considering the CF is so far away it's always better to have a defined surface boundary which we may be lacking on wednesday. but tomorrow we're way east of the trough still.. in many cases too far east. it's one of those days where we can flush plenty of "potential". even later week is perhaps muddled as the low stacks/fills/weakens. our odds of some more needed rain seem good tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 it's always better to have a defined surface boundary which we may be lacking on wednesday. but tomorrow we're way east of the trough still.. in many cases too far east. it's one of those days where we can flush plenty of "potential". even later week is perhaps muddled as the low stacks/fills/weakens. our odds of some more needed rain seem good tho. Agree... the main reason I liked tomorrow is cause of the warm front. We shall see what the 1730 SPC OTLK thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 I agree tomorrow looks good as well. I wouldn't doubt getting a slight risk. Cape is 2000+ From your last 4 posts ITT, it seems that you're hung up on the CAPE of any given day. You should combine the CAPE with other severe weather parameters, like wind speed/directional shear, vorticity, surface boundaries and mesoscale features. Not a criticism... just some advice for when determining how potent a severe weather setup really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 From your last 4 posts ITT, it seems that you're hung up on the CAPE of any given day. You should combine the CAPE with other severe weather parameters, like wind speed/directional shear, vorticity, surface boundaries and mesoscale features. Not a criticism... just some advice for when determining how potent a severe weather setup really is. I do look at other ones, but, Cape is a big one too. Shear looks to be 30KTS+ most of the days. Also we have are stationary front hanging around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 I do look at other ones, but, Cape is a big one too. Shear looks to be 30KTS+ most of the days. Also we have are stationary front hanging around. Shear doesn't mean jack unless you know how that shear is distributed through the atmospheric column. I see decent low-level speed/directional shear that has virtually no added support by the upper levels, which would be an indicator that the storms may not be up to snuff. Lapse rates are "meh" outside of the lowest levels, so storms that do fire most likely won't explode as much as they could with the same CAPE in a different synoptic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Also consider that there are things that are present that dont have a value scale. For example the effect of water loading, mid-level dry air or wet bulb temps in the process of developing and sustaining a thunderstorm. On top of all that.. don't forget each models has its own biases etc. It's a lot to hold and consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Using the ever so great Earl Barker model page... 12z GFS at hr 30 and 36 at all 3 airports and EZF seem to be okay... though 0-6km shear is ony 30 kts. ML Lapse rates are 6.5 to 7.0 C/KM... so that should help some as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 From your last 4 posts ITT, it seems that you're hung up on the CAPE of any given day. You should combine the CAPE with other severe weather parameters, like wind speed/directional shear, vorticity, surface boundaries and mesoscale features. Not a criticism... just some advice for when determining how potent a severe weather setup really is. And it really is good advice. It gives someone like me a reason for pause to look at other stuff instead of getting all geeked up when one parameter gets high. Baby steps for me to learn this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 SLGT risk tomorrow ..MID ATLANTIC STATES STRONGER NW FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE EWD EXTENSION OF THE WARM FRONT FROM PA TOWARD THE NRN PART OF CHESAPEAKE BAY...WHERE A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL EXIST. A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 And slight for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 SLGT risk tomorrow ..MID ATLANTIC STATES STRONGER NW FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE EWD EXTENSION OF THE WARM FRONT FROM PA TOWARD THE NRN PART OF CHESAPEAKE BAY...WHERE A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL EXIST. A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. I knew that was coming, I was like they better push it east. Was sitting here pushing refresh a zillion times. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Can I preemptively MEH the entire week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Can I preemptively MEH the entire week? Can i preemptively tell you to screw off haha jk (lets be positive!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Can i preemptively tell you to screw off haha jk (lets be positive!) You can screw off too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 You can screw off too. Gee thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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