Ellinwood Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Though the main low is expected to be stacked/decaying as it pushes into the eastern U.S., the system should remain organized enough for the region to experience severe storms this Thursday and Friday. Along with the upper-low, the system also features a moderate jet streak ejecting out of the base of the trough, which will help give the storms upper-level support and increase storm longevity. A cold front moving through the region could help initiate/sustain storms as well. The atmosphere will be somewhat unstable as well, though cloud cover and precipitation remain concerns as mid-level lapse rates could suffer. Regardless, so long as there is some sunshine, temperatures should climb into the lower 90s during the afternoon, creating favorable low-level lapse rates. Coupled with decent/good wind shear, the atmosphere seems favorable for at least some severe weather as we head into the end of the work week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 What about this? Tuesday afternoon... Ian was talking about this a lil last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 What about this? Tuesday afternoon... Ian was talking about this a lil last night Severe certainly possible along that frontal boundary (once it finally gets to our north!), but I'm looking at the more "classic" severe setup later this week as the best chance to get good supercell and/or tornadic storms. I just wanted to separate the Thu/Fri stuff from the rest of it since it's a different kind of situation that, for now, shows more promise and chase-worthiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 What do you think about Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Tuesday afternoon... What do you think about Wednesday? I'm not a big fan of Tue/Wed due to the supposed larger amounts of cloud cover and lack of upper-level support. Not saying that nothing will happen, but I'd rather play up the Thu/Fri potential at this point... looks more exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I'm not a big fan of Tue/Wed due to the supposed larger amounts of cloud cover and lack of upper-level support. Not saying that nothing will happen, but I'd rather play up the Thu/Fri potential at this point... looks more exciting Might as well make this the entire week severe weather thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 you might as well just put the whole week in it (sans today).. the jumping back and forth b/w threads is confusing. though i made a weekend thread and ppl still posted in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Tuesday afternoon again... 0900 SREF run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Might as well make this the entire week severe weather thread you might as well just put the whole week in it (sans today).. the jumping back and forth b/w threads is confusing. though i made a weekend thread and ppl still posted in the other thread. *sigh* le fine I'll just have to live with the "meh" posts until Thursday rolls around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 *sigh* le fine I'll just have to live with the "meh" posts until Thursday rolls around. Wednesday I am not really impressed with IMO... Tuesday could certainly get some play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 *sigh* le fine I'll just have to live with the "meh" posts until Thursday rolls around. heh. well the first two are marginal but if something pops it could be interesting. maybe subtitle the whole week and focus on the other days in the main title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Perhaps you severe guys (Mark, Ian, Yoda...) need to converse with each other first, privately, on what looks good, bad and meh for the week before starting these threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 heh. well the first two are marginal but if something pops it could be interesting. maybe subtitle the whole week and focus on the other days in the main title. I dunno... Tuesday seems pretty good with the SREF parameter stuff.. MUCAPE is 3500... could get some good stuff if we have some clearing... seems to suggest the WF gets through early enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Perhaps you severe guys (Mark, Ian, Yoda...) need to converse with each other first, privately, on what looks good, bad and meh for the week before starting these threads. I apologize milady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Wednesday I am not really impressed with IMO... Tuesday could certainly get some play wed we're closer to the upper support. tomorrow we're more likely to end up not having anything to trigger a storm. it's more that if one goes it could be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 FWIW: Severe awesomeness forecast... Tue: 4/10 Wed: 2/10 Thu: 7/10 Fri: 7/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 FWIW: Severe awesomeness forecast... Tue: 4/10 Wed: 2/10 Thu: 7/10 Fri: 7/10 98% chance of seeing a tornado? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 There seems to be an enthusiasm and optimism regarding severe weather here that is not commensurate with the results....you could say the same about snow, but there seems to be a collective understanding re: snow that things will not work out....I am trying to follow these "threats", but it won't take too many more "busts" before I don't take any of these discrete threads seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I apologize milady Apology accepted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 98% chance of seeing a tornado? Why of course! ...somewhere on the internet But in srsnss... there is a decent TOR chance on Friday per the latest model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 98% chance of seeing a tornado? Invert that... 2% lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 There seems to be an enthusiasm and optimism regarding severe weather here that is not commensurate with the results....you could say the same about snow, but there seems to be a collective understanding re: snow that things will not work out....I am trying to follow these "threats", but it won't take too many more "busts" before I don't take any of these discrete threads seriously Are you saying that the Great Ellinwood is wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 There seems to be an enthusiasm and optimism regarding severe weather here that is not commensurate with the results....you could say the same about snow, but there seems to be a collective understanding re: snow that things will not work out....I am trying to follow these "threats", but it won't take too many more "busts" before I don't take any of these discrete threads seriously you can't really define success the same way. if svr storms happen within 100 miles it's probably a success even if you could not care less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Why of course! ...somewhere on the internet But in srsnss... there is a decent TOR chance on Friday per the latest model runs. Good thing the models never fail us eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 There seems to be an enthusiasm and optimism regarding severe weather here that is not commensurate with the results....you could say the same about snow, but there seems to be a collective understanding re: snow that things will not work out....I am trying to follow these "threats", but it won't take too many more "busts" before I don't take any of these discrete threads seriously lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 you can't really define success the same way. if svr storms happen within 100 miles it's probably a success even if you could not care less. and that is worthy of individual threads? not that I care if people start threads....It is just trying to evaluate which ones merit attention.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Are you saying that the Great Ellinwood is wrong? no...but I am just realizing that these discrete potential threads are really for hard core severe enthusiasts and not for the general hobbyist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 and that is worthy of individual threads? not that I care if people start threads....It is just trying to evaluate which ones merit attention.... i think so. we could spend all summer in 2 superthreads but it's not like we're running out of room in here. there is probably only a somewhat rare case where a svr event is screaming extreme days in advance. in the event something does go big it's nicer to go back and look at a more consolidated thread rather than pages 45-72 of a summer t'storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 i think so. we could spend all summer in 2 superthreads but it's not like we're running out of room in here. there is probably only a somewhat rare case where a svr event is screaming extreme days in advance. in the event something does go big it's nicer to go back and look at a more consolidated thread rather than pages 45-72 of a summer t'storm thread. Like June 4 2008 - I always use that example. That would have been bad to have to go through a full summer thread to isolate out that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Like June 4 2008 - I always use that example. That would have been bad to have to go through a full summer thread to isolate out that stuff. granted.. i rarely go back and look at old threads as the images often disappear and it's not like all the commentary is shining. but often you dont know when an event will turn "special". i'd almost rather have a seperate thread for every possibility of a weather event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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