earthlight Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I guess you can call this a place to discuss the specific modeling and handling of the potential westerly-based -NAO block that is forecast to develop by some longer range guidance. Yesterday's Euro weeklies were very impressive, developing a +160m height anomaly block southwest of Greenland extending all the way back east to Greenland itself, and holding the block there through the 2-4 week period through January 3rd. The GFS global ensembles basically agree with the weeklies in the long range..with a similar pattern and similarly impressive height anomalies at this range. This development would be very favorable for the continued perspective of cold and potentially snow in through the end of December. The blocking continues to be very persistent, even when it is more transient and/or east based..it is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I guess you can call this a place to discuss the specific modeling and handling of the potential westerly-based -NAO block that is forecast to develop by some longer range guidance. Yesterday's Euro weeklies were very impressive, developing a +160m height anomaly block southwest of Greenland extending all the way back east to Greenland itself, and holding the block there through the 2-4 week period through January 3rd. The GFS global ensembles basically agree with the weeklies in the long range..with a similar pattern and similarly impressive height anomalies at this range. This development would be very favorable for the continued perspective of cold and potentially snow in through the end of December. The blocking continues to be very persistent, even when it is more transient and/or east based..it is there. How does the PNA look during this time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 How does the PNA look during this time frame? Generally negative, although a transient west coast ridge is possible. The PNA has been negative (less than -1) since November 13th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Generally negative, although a transient west coast ridge is possible. The PNA has been negative (less than -1) since November 13th or so. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Hopefully this doesn't just mean cold and dry and that we can actually get a good storm in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 This looks promising for the rest of the month. Just need some white and all weenies will rejoice ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 The Pacific may start to get crappy looking with a strengthing GOA trough. While it's not in a horrible position..it might serve to pump up a southeast ridge and cause this to be more of a gradient pattern. Maybe related to MJO forcing?? Either way, pretty impressive looking weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 The Pacific may start to get crappy looking with a strengthing GOA trough. While it's not in a horrible position..it might serve to pump up a southeast ridge and cause this to be more of a gradient pattern. Maybe related to MJO forcing?? Either way, pretty impressive looking weeklies. I was thinking this as well..but for a while the Pac is actually okay (not great, but okay) and we have a whole load of energy roaring east from the Pacific. This working with the advertised blocking could be pretty interesting..and it's more of a Miller B pattern, too, in that case as opposed to a gradient pattern which would develop later when the SE ridge strengthens. Lots of questions to be answered but we look to be sitting in a decent spot to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Well making the strong pacific jet can add in with some extra energy, but I don't know how any shortwave will be able to amplify in this kind of pattern. We basically have a classic moderate la nina with North Atlantic blocking, that's a huge signal for cold and dry with the occasional clipper bringing down a few snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I was thinking this as well..but for a while the Pac is actually okay (not great, but okay) and we have a whole load of energy roaring east from the Pacific. This working with the advertised blocking could be pretty interesting..and it's more of a Miller B pattern, too, in that case as opposed to a gradient pattern which would develop later when the SE ridge strengthens. Lots of questions to be answered but we look to be sitting in a decent spot to say the least. Yeah agree. The Pacific will be fine for a while...I was thinking more at the end of the 11-15 day. I also agree that if anything it should increase storm chances and we'll probably be happy (hopefully happy) that the block to our northeast is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Well making the strong pacific jet can add in with some extra energy, but I don't know how any shortwave will be able to amplify in this kind of pattern. We basically have a classic moderate la nina with North Atlantic blocking, that's a huge signal for cold and dry with the occasional clipper bringing down a few snow showers. Do you post anything positive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Not evey year can have a crazy STJ... But I am pretty happy the block is THERE unlike some years, like December 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denvillenj Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 glad to hear we look to be in a good spot the next few weeks. That's all you can ask for really. I have been reading and lurking for years, getting better at tempering my expectations and not getting so hung up on every model run. at least for me, i like this concept of looking at the periods ahead as windows of opportunity where conditions in general are favorable for snow/cold. Nice post as usual earthlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Yeah agree. The Pacific will be fine for a while...I was thinking more at the end of the 11-15 day. I also agree that if anything it should increase storm chances and we'll probably be happy (hopefully happy) that the block to our northeast is there. Of course the gfs op can show you how it can go wrong..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Of course the gfs op can show you how it can go wrong..lol. yea, thats the only thing im worried about. You can have a great block in greenland, but if you have a strong goa low, things can get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 yea, thats the only thing im worried about. You can have a great block in greenland, but if you have a strong goa low, things can get ugly. yea. I think that was the thing I was noticing yesterday when we were looking at that Euro run. It looked like a big squasher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 yea. I think that was the thing I was noticing yesterday when we were looking at that Euro run. It looked like a big squasher. thats typical of la nina to right? goa lows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 thats typical of la nina to right? goa lows? with La Nina, the pacific Jet is more variable in nature, but it's got a bit of a split flow with actually a blocking high just south of Alaska and then two branches above and underneathe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 with La Nina, the pacific Jet is more variable in nature, but it's got a bit of a split flow with actually a blocking high just south of Alaska and then two branches above and underneathe it. ahh ok, you ready for the euro thread lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 Figured I would bump this with the GFS global ensembles from this afternoon's 12z run. Things keep looking more impressive as the block continues into the long range and shows no signs of breaking down--it's actually better positioned now on most ensembles than was being shown a few days ago. Maybe the Euro weeklies were on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 The GFS ensembles continue to be through the roof with the NAO block developing in the long range. It's really encouraging to see this modeled so strongly at this range and in line with the Euro weeklies from last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Is there such a thing as too much of a good thing when it comes to a very strong west based Nao block? Looking at the means map wouldn't that basically suppress everything south of the northeast and midatlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Is there such a thing as too much of a good thing when it comes to a very strong west based Nao block? Looking at the means map wouldn't that basically suppress everything south of the northeast and midatlantic? The pattern not great, the pacific keeps lows tracking across the U.S. fairly far north across the plains and then they get squashed as they approach the east coast. To me it's not a great look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Cold and dry, warm rainstorm, cold and dry, warm rainstorm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The pattern not great, the pacific keeps lows tracking across the U.S. fairly far north across the plains and then they get squashed as they approach the east coast. To me it's not a great look. Sadly, I have to agree wiith you, Wes. Until we get a decent Pac, we aren't gonna get the storms that will slam us. See 2009-2010 for ideal Pac... Ninos are better for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Sadly, I have to agree wiith you, Wes. Until we get a decent Pac, we aren't gonna get the storms that will slam us. See 2009-2010 for ideal Pac... Ninos are better for all of us. i think a lot of us would just be happy with storm that slap us instead of slam us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 i think a lot of us would just be happy with storm that slap us instead of slam us though. Yes I agree with that. But I know what everyone wants.... the big dog.... I do agree a couple of inches before Christmas would make it a heck of a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 The pattern not great, the pacific keeps lows tracking across the U.S. fairly far north across the plains and then they get squashed as they approach the east coast. To me it's not a great look. One has to wonder what the pattern would look like without the blocking, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 One has to wonder what the pattern would look like without the blocking, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Weeklies, FTW!!! YEEEEEE HAAAAAAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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