Stormlover74 Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Yeah I'm worried these storms firing early will rob us of storm chances later on as well as the cloud cover NAM has big storms in the NYC vicinity for around 5pm. It doesnt have the storms occuring right now though, so take it FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Much like yesterday, the convection is setting up along these boundaries where there is deep moisture convergence taking place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 that storm is going to pass right to my north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 The cell in NW NJ looks to be turning right a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 The cell in NW NJ looks to be turning right a bit. It is acually headed due east, if you zoom in close.. and it is bowing out big-time. It look like it's headed right for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 23, 2011 Author Share Posted June 23, 2011 New mesoscale discussion from SPC suggests weakening of that storm and a more widespread threat later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 New mesoscale discussion from SPC suggests weakening of that storm and a more widespread threat later. interesting.. Let's see if it dies before it gets to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 this storm is really booking..it is just about to hit Mahwah.. should be here within about 30 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 This storm is a perfect example of how differently KOKX and the Philadelphia NWSFO's see severe thunderstorm warnings. Philadelphia still has a severe thunderstorm warning out for the cell even though the cell is north of the warning polygon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 New mesoscale discussion from SPC suggests weakening of that storm and a more widespread threat later. I really think this is our best shot for severe weather down to the coastal areas is later on looks pretty promising just based on this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 doen't look like they are going to extend the warnings eastward, but it still looks healthy.. wind is picking up and getting darker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Thunder here in Ramsey. Looks very ominious outside with dark skies and dense fog. Trees are starting to move. I think I'm in a good position as the heart of the core should pass right over me. Anybody see any hail potential with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 The rain has commenced here in Ramsey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Yeah the disparity has been pretty interesting this season especially. Oddly Upton still has flash flood watches out which seems a little overdone. If storms pop up I could see FF warnings but not sure a watch is needed except in spots that have had excessive rainfall yesterday. It's also odd that some of the strongest storms all season have occurred this week without any watches out. Is there a certain overall area coverage that needs to be met in order for a watch to be issued? This storm is a perfect example of how differently KOKX and the Philadelphia NWSFO's see severe thunderstorm warnings. Philadelphia still has a severe thunderstorm warning out for the cell even though the cell is north of the warning polygon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 The rain has commenced here in Ramsey the last radar return doesn't look as healthy.. I think the storm will be dying as it hits me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Still says 1" hail is possible. Thunder here in Ramsey. Looks very ominious outside with dark skies and dense fog. Trees are starting to move. I think I'm in a good position as the heart of the core should pass right over me. Anybody see any hail potential with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Nothing severe about this storm so far. The rain has been very heavy but only one rumble of thunder so far. It might have a small hail core passing to my north. I'm a bit on the southern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1051 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... ROCKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... NORTHERN ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... * UNTIL 145 PM EDT... * AT 1048 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED FLASH FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA...WITH MORE STORMS ON THEIR WAY FROM THE WEST. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING. MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 pouring here.. I'll see what the rainfall rates are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 very steady, consistant 1 inch per hour rates... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 pouring here.. I'll see what the rainfall rates are According to the radar, quite high, but some of that is hail contaminated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rocklandwx Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm Warning now for Rockland, Southern Westchester and Northern Bergen SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NJC003-031-NYC071-087-119-231600- /O.NEW.KOKX.SV.W.0021.110623T1510Z-110623T1600Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1110 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... ROCKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... NORTHERN BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... * UNTIL NOON EDT... * AT 1107 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SLOATSBURG TO HAWTHORNE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SLOATSBURG TO RIDGEWOOD...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO POMONA...MONSEY...PARAMUS...NANUET...NEW CITY...ORADELL...PEARL RIVER...HAVERSTRAW...BERGENFIELD...ORANGEBURG...TAPPAN...NORWOOD... UPPER NYACK...NYACK...OSSINING...NORTH TARRYTOWN...TARRYTOWN... DOBBS FERRY...YONKERS...HAWTHORNE...BRONXVILLE...WHITE PLAINS... SCARSDALE...NEW ROCHELLE...MOUNT KISCO AND HARRISON PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. && LAT...LON 4130 7423 4125 7364 4112 7368 4110 7372 4106 7370 4089 7376 4090 7383 4091 7384 4093 7390 4091 7392 4095 7428 4098 7430 4100 7434 TIME...MOT...LOC 1510Z 275DEG 20KT 4119 7411 4100 7417 $$ MALOIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 The way these storms are training I doubt we see much sun today when they pass to fire some more storms this afternoon/evening...any thoughts on how this may affect the storm potential for later today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 closing in on 2 inches of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 The way these storms are training I doubt we see much sun today when they pass to fire some more storms this afternoon/evening...any thoughts on how this may affect the storm potential for later today? Yell at me if im wrong, but im pretty sure that the storms now, we kill any chances of them later, unless we clear out in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Yell at me if im wrong, but im pretty sure that the storms now, we kill any chances of them later, unless we clear out in a hurry. once the line thats currently in western Jersey passes through we could see some breaks in the clouds but this won't be a day with high SBCAPE. Its mostly elevated CAPE thats getting it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rocklandwx Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Demarest Kill is over New Hempstead Rd in New City. Road is totally flooded and several cars are under water in the parking lots of the County Offices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 once the line thats currently in western Jersey passes through we could see some breaks in the clouds but this won't be a day with high SBCAPE. Its mostly elevated CAPE thats getting it done. so what your saying is later on the storms are still gonna fire up again correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Demarest Kill is over New Hempstead Rd in New City. Road is totally flooded and several cars are under water in the parking lots of the County Offices Yea my gf who lives in new city off of sqaudron said there's cars floating and almost every road getting to mainstreet new city is flooded and is impassible and blocked by emergency vehicles...can you confirm this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 12z NAM has picked up on these storms from the morning and has them clearing the area in the next couple hours, with nothing behind it, except for central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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