earthlight Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190832 SPC AC 190832 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0332 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011 VALID 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... THROUGH DAY4 MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN THE MOVEMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE A BELT OF STRONG MID-HIGH LEVEL WINDS THAT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...COINCIDENT WITH A MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. IF MODELS ARE INDEED ACCURATE IN PLACING THIS STRONG MID LEVEL FEATURE OVER WI AT 23/00Z...IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. BEYOND DAY4 MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SPEED/PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HENCE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR A SEVERE RISK DAY5 AND BEYOND. ..DARROW.. 06/19/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I think that this is going to be an active week with the potential for thunderstorms to produce flash flooding and become severe. First,It looks like the warm front will be slow moving as there will be blocking to the north with closed lows near the Great Lakes and Newfoundland.Second,the cold front should slow down near our area as the upper flow becomes parallel to the front. There will be plenty of moisture available will high PW's forecast. Slow moving warm front and cold front pattern with plenty of moisture: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 How's this threat looking so far compared to June 1st? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I sure hope it is not another 6/1 or another 6/5/10 repeat. Personally I loved what the area most experience this past Friday despite most of the storms stay below severe levels. I will take that repeat any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I sure hope it is not another 6/1 or another 6/5/10 repeat. Personally I loved what the area most experience this past Friday despite most of the storms stay below severe levels. I will take that repeat any day. Agree 100% had some pea sized hail/winds but what really stole the show Friday was the vived cg lighting and really loud thunder, by far best storm this season so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSurge Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I just hope Thursday isn't a complete washout. I'm taking my daughter to her first Mets game. (I know, the poor thing.) I'll take some severe for the ride home though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 12z NAM is delaying this threat for overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 12z NAM has it screwing LI and has only a 10% chance for thunderstorms for Islip. God I really hate this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 12z NAM has it screwing LI and has only a 10% chance for thunderstorms for Islip. God I really hate this model. Long island more often than not gets screwed on thunderstorms anyway due to the seabreeze influence and our air being more stable than our more fortunate inland folks, sucks a lot when u look at the radar and see a storm just die soon as it hits long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 12z NAM has it screwing LI and has only a 10% chance for thunderstorms for Islip. God I really hate this model. For the love of god stop! If you love thunderstorms and severe weather that much move to Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Well if I have more money once then I will moving to NJ because one cheper cigreetes over there and I think it is cheaper all together to live over there then it is to live in NY state all together. Of course NJ does get more storms than both NYC and LI all together. Probably I like to live in Northern NJ where it is to still close to the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Well if I have more money once then I will moving to NJ because one cheper cigreetes over there and I think it is cheaper all together to live over there then it is to live in NY state all together. Of course NJ does get more storms than both NYC and LI all together. Probably I like to live in Northern NJ where it is to still close to the city. Uh hello? There is an indian reservation in Mastic, NY (Poospatuck) and one in Shinnecock. Why in the world would you go anywhere else for cigarettes? I drive from Queens to Mastic (68 miles) to get 3-4 cartons every once in a while and save over $200. Last year, all cartons were only around $40 there compared to $100-$120 that is is in Long Island and NYC. Now the cartons go anywhere from $50-$65 in the reservations. Still a savings of $50+ per carton! Edit: LOL! Sayville to Mastic, NY is only 16 miles! You wasted thousands of dollars in cigarette tax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Uh hello? There is an indian reservation in Mastic, NY (Poospatuck) and one in Shinnecock. Why in the world would you go anywhere else for cigarettes? I drive from Queens to Mastic (68 miles) to get 3-4 cartons every once in a while and save over $200. Last year, all cartons were only around $40 there compared to $100-$120 that is is in Long Island and NYC. Now the cartons go anywhere from $50-$65 in the reservations. Still a savings of $50+ per carton! sorry to go OT, but you could just quit smoking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 sorry to go OT, but you could just quit smoking. Of course. But in the meantime, anyone who smokes and doesnt go to the reservations is insane. The savings are insane amounts of money. He lives only 16 miles from a cigarette paradise in Mastic, Long Island. I've calculated that I have saved over $15,000+ in taxes, by driving 68 miles to the reservation. If it was as easy as saying "you can just stop smoking", then nobody would smoke and cigarette companies would be bankrupt. Every smoker would quit, if it was that easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Back to severe talk. Sorry for the OT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Uh hello? There is an indian reservation in Mastic, NY (Poospatuck) and one in Shinnecock. Why in the world would you go anywhere else for cigarettes? I drive from Queens to Mastic (68 miles) to get 3-4 cartons every once in a while and save over $200. Last year, all cartons were only around $40 there compared to $100-$120 that is is in Long Island and NYC. Now the cartons go anywhere from $50-$65 in the reservations. Still a savings of $50+ per carton! Edit: LOL! Sayville to Mastic, NY is only 16 miles! You wasted thousands of dollars in cigarette tax. Of course you got the Indian reservation but the state is trying to shut down and raise the prices but anyway yeah lets get back severe talk and it looks like more heavy rain producers than severe anyway if anything since we will be north of the warm front. But who knows I could hope this could be one of those warm front set ups for our area like we had back in 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 sorry to go OT, but you could just quit smoking. +1. I hope one day you guys quit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 +1. I hope one day you guys quit Agree, it's a nasty habit. I know its easier said than done, but the extra effort is well worth it (especially in the latter stages of life). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Maybe some convection tomorrow along the warm front? Looks like T-storms are breaking out over PA right now, but those will likely head SE into the Mid-atlantic, following the periphery of the thermal ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Of course. But in the meantime, anyone who smokes and doesnt go to the reservations is insane. The savings are insane amounts of money. He lives only 16 miles from a cigarette paradise in Mastic, Long Island. I've calculated that I have saved over $15,000+ in taxes, by driving 68 miles to the reservation. If it was as easy as saying "you can just stop smoking", then nobody would smoke and cigarette companies would be bankrupt. Every smoker would quit, if it was that easy. I don't mean to criticize, but people can avoid the difficulty of having to quit by not starting smoking to begin with. I never understand why anyone would try a cigarette, knowing they can become addicted to it. But that's just my opinion. Anyway, good luck to everyone here that will be trying to quit. I hope you don't end up smoking long enough to greatly increase your risk of cancer and heart disease. It's important to try to quit at a young age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 I trying quiting a few times and I am telling you it is very hard. It is even harder than quiting any alcohol or drugs all together. But now on to thunderstorms and I think Wednesday I do like that warm front set up lets see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Severe threat on Thursday as well: ..UPPER OH VALLEY TO NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC... SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS EASES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES-TN VALLEY. THIS UPPER FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN MODEST SWLY FLOW...ON THE ORDER OF 40KT AT 500MB...FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TN INTO UPSTATE NY. WHILE IT/S NOT OBVIOUS HOW FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ALONG ADVANCING FRONT...IT APPEARS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK REGION WILL ENCOURAGE TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z WITHIN A FLOW REGIME THAT SHOULD FAVOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...OR AT LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Slight risk for wed got pulled way back into th ohio valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Our risk tomorrow got downgraded to a see text. There is a slight risk on thursday however... All i want is a monster squall line/derecho with 60 mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Slight risk for wed got pulled way back into th ohio valley figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Yeah and last Friday we weren't even in a watch and look how that turned out areawide compared with the 2 'event's earlier in the month. Maybe not a ton of severe but still some isolated strong storms and hopefully an extensive area with heavy rain/thunder/lightning figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 I guess I understand the downgrade with the ULL remaining so far back to the west and slowing down its progression (making for weaker effective shear I believe argued in their day 2 text), but I'm still a bit uneasy about tomorrow with the warm front in the area and some nice low-level turning of the winds on the soundings. Furthermore, with weaker bulk shear, then flash flooding would be of greater concern. PW values 1.5-2.0+ tomorrow into tomorrow night. Also think Friday could turn out to be a severe weather day with the slower movement of the ULL, still lingering around and taking its closest proximity to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 A small little cell popped up just SW of Staten Island. Strengthening on each frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 A small little cell popped up just SW of Staten Island. Strengthening on each frame. Also a nasty one over orange county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Also a nasty one over orange county. if that one can continue to develop, it should hit my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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