NNE rollin' through summer

[eekuasepinniW]

Unbearably cold this morning. Dislike.

Watching those storms yesterday dance around me to later pummel downtown Laconia catapulted me through several dimensions of rage. Only got .38" while radar shows around 3" for them.

[powderfreak]

Awesome, awesome July day! Hit a high of 79F after a low of 51F... as I've mentioned before, I love these days with 30F diurnal temperature swings. Crisp and cool evenings/mornings with mild afternoons... just perfect.

The next couple days look like 5-star days as well... lows in the lower 50s with highs getting into the lower 80s. I could push this repeat button all the way through August.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 52. Calm wind.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming north between 4 and 7 mph.

Friday Night: Clear, with a low around 52. Calm wind.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 82. Light and variable wind.

[powderfreak]

Also... I want to extend a welcome to the poster "adk" who is now residing in Burlington after a move from Philly. I think the North Country will fit your needs much better than the mid-Atlantic Looking forward to doing some hiking and making turns with ya dude.

[Allenson]

Nice morning out there--got down to 51F for a low. I was hoping for an upper-40s just because, but it wasn't to be.

Also... I want to extend a welcome to the poster "adk" who is now residing in Burlington after a move from Philly. I think the North Country will fit your needs much better than the mid-Atlantic Looking forward to doing some hiking and making turns with ya dude.

With a name like, adk, yeah, here's a better fit.

Welcome indeed!

[J.Spin]

Also... I want to extend a welcome to the poster "adk" who is now residing in Burlington after a move from Philly. I think the North Country will fit your needs much better than the mid-Atlantic Looking forward to doing some hiking and making turns with ya dude.

Congrats to you adk, now you are just a quick ferry trip away from the adk to your west, you've got the Whites to your east, and the Greens as your back yard. Compared to Philly though, you may have to deal with a bit more of this…

…this…

… and this…

…but I’m sure you’ll manage

[adk]

Gonna be VERY hard to deal with. I mean I HATE that winter stuff:

I have NO idea how I'll manage.

As for the current weather.

Absolute stunner here in South BTV. 59 when I left for a run at 5:50 this am and not a cloud in the sky. Took an alternate root down spear street just to gaze at the sparkling ADK. Nice fall like coating of dew as well that sparkled as crystals sprinkled in the grass would.

Currently up to 67 but I think that's a bit high. I'm in full sun. Prob. more like 64 with a proper temp gauge.

Last night on mansfield it was stellar. I had a temp reading of the low 60s at around 6pm with gusty winds out of 300 degres at about 15 mph. Just splendid.

EDIT: JSpin- We also gotta get you to replace that "Ski the East" sticker. I got a much better one.

[powderfreak]

Nice morning out there--got down to 51F for a low. I was hoping for an upper-40s just because, but it wasn't to be.

49.6 on my thermometer haha... but it goes down in the books as 50F.

It looks like MVL has an official low of 49F so they must've gotten down that extra couple tenths of a degree

[powderfreak]

Jesus h... I'm even at awe of that photo taken by Ben. And I'm having trouble placing the location of that shot, but don't divulge. I'm pretty sure on the general area I was bummed I didn't get to make any turns with Ben last season, only saw him in passing. Pretty much the same with Greg. The only time I got to ski with Kristin was when the two of us were modeling for Herb Steven's "The Skiing Weatherman" segment at Stowe. I couldn't believe Kristin didn't have a racing background, but I guess when you ski with those other two long enough you develop some "racing habits" haha.

You and J.Spin are killing me... winter cannot come early enough. The 30-40" upslope events mixed in with daily light snow and then the big synoptic snows. I can't wait.

Lastly, AJ, I'm not sure what your schedule will be this winter, but you need to be prepared to ski mid-week somehow. It is a completely different experience than the weekend. Its not even close. You would think we are closed some of the Monday through Wednesday time periods because of the lack of cars in the parking lot. The surprise, mid-week powder days are where its at.

This photo displays the beauty of a mid-week fresh snowfall morning... note the tracks on Liftline (there was 4-6" overnight this day), and now note the actual lift. I'm the only person on my chair, there's one guy on a chair in front of me, then several empty chairs. This is like 15 minutes after opening and there's no one here. Its just run after run of fresh blower pow. Mansfield is a massive mountain that isn't going to get skied out by 2 people every 5 chairs, lol. Just wait till that first Tuesday morning you are there skiing boot-deep pow and you're watching empty chairs go up the line. "Where is everybody?!"

More proof of the mid-week magic... another 6" snowfall overnight (this trail was groomed at some point last night) and there are empty chairs going up.

And this was that 6-8" overnight-then-sunshine-at-sunrise powder day in April where tracks lasted all day. This was when management decided that "no one cares" anymore because if you are getting these types of conditions and trails still look like this at 11am at a major ski resort, then people have likely moved on to other activities like golf and biking in the larger valleys. I mean, look at Hayride here.... there's not a soul on this trail at 11am and you can keep getting fresh tracks by moving over 10 feet from your previous line, haha.

Make sure you can ski mid-week sometimes; your life won't be the same, haha.

[tamarack]

Upper 40s this morning IMBY after yesterday's crisp 74. My nephew Karl lives in HI and was on a working trip to Portsmouth Navy Yard (electronics on nuc subs), and my wife invited him to drive up to Topsham to visit his grandpa (and his aunt, too, of course.) As they were leaving the Sea Dog brewpub along the Androscoggin River, Karl shivered in the wind and said, "Feels like fall is coming." (This despite his past experience with winter, having spent several years at RPI.)

[adk]

Jesus h... I'm even at awe of that photo taken by Ben. And I'm having trouble placing the location of that shot, but don't divulge. I'm pretty sure on the general area

It was actually Utah...out of the Solitude boundary line. I caught a 40 inch cold smoke storm there in April. It came in on a 175 inch base. It was absurd.

Lastly, AJ, I'm not sure what your schedule will be this winter, but you need to be prepared to ski mid-week somehow. It is a completely different experience than the weekend. Its not even close. You would think we are closed some of the Monday through Wednesday time periods because of the lack of cars in the parking lot. The surprise, mid-week powder days are where its at.

I'm working full business hours for a law firm in downtown BTV ...but if I can manage to get some potential client connections with the folks over at Stowe or somewhere ...esp one who likes to ski...well then midweek becomes a client meeting and off we go! Its like golf with a client only fun and in the winter with less cursing and club banging.

Hovering in the mid 70's now under slightly hazy skies in south BTV. Cut grass smells are lingering a little long so I think the humidity is on the rise.

[powderfreak]

It was actually Utah...out of the Solitude boundary line. I caught a 40 inch cold smoke storm there in April. It came in on a 175 inch base. It was absurd.

Ahhh... I thought it was in VTah haha.

[J.Spin]

It was actually Utah...out of the Solitude boundary line. I caught a 40 inch cold smoke storm there in April. It came in on a 175 inch base. It was absurd.

I was really curious as well, since I didn't see a single sign of a hardwood, and some of the trees looked quite large for being way up in our evergreen zone. I was also impressed with the pitch when I saw that guy standing in the background. I definitely wanted to track that line down. In any case, I take it as a very good sign when our Northern Vermont ski terrain and snow are so easily confused with Utah's.

[borderwx]

Easy fellas, gonna start giving me the shakes with all the snow pics, although this summer has been a good distraction. wicked friggin nice

mid July indicators kinda snuck up on me, garlic tips now yellowing , first couple pints of blueberries devoured

78 today - enough to burn, enough clouds to ease the pain. dry as a bone.

[powderfreak]

Awesome forecast discussion from BTV this afternoon... gives a great run-down of the next week worth of weather. I'd highly recommend reading it.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...A GREAT AFTERNOON FOR MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES CONTINUES. LOTS OF SUN MIXED WITH PANCAKE CUMULUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THOSE CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DISIPATE WITH SUNSET, AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD WILL ENSURE CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS. AIRMASS IS STILL RELATIVELY DRY, WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE LOWER 50S. THUS WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. PERHAPS SOME 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SHELTERED VALLEYS, AND STAYING AROUND 60F NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL SATURDAY. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 850MB TEMPS RISE SLIGHTLY AND BE IN THE 14-15C RANGE. WITH ANOTHER DAY WITH NEAR FULL SUNSHINE AND EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL MIXING, WE WILL BE ABLE ADIABATICALLY MIX DOWN FROM AT LEAST THE 850MB LEVEL -- MEANING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE PUSHING 30C OR MID-80S. I PRETTY MUCH TOOK TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ADDED 2-3F FOR TOMORROW. LUCKILY THE DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE IN THE 50S, SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARM, IT WONT FEEL THAT BAD. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. GENERALLY CLEAR AND CALM. LOWS WILL BE 2-3F WARMER SINCE WE`LL BE WARMER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG, BUT WITH THE LONGER WE GO WITHOUT RAIN, THE DRIER THE CONDITIONS AND LOWER CHANCE FOR FOG. AT THIS POINT I LEFT ANY PATCHY FOG MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST.

SUNDAY -- THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE. MOST NOTICEABLY WILL BE THE HUMIDITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE COAST, ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. DEWPOINT WILL BE RISING INTO THE 60S DURING THE DAY. COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACHING AT LEAST THE MID 80S, ITS GOING TO FEEL NOT AS COMFORTABLE AS SATURDAY DID. THAT INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO A BIT OF A BUMP UP IN THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HAVE PAINTED IN 15-20% CHANCE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CERTAINLY NOTHING TO CHANGE OUTDOOR PLANS.

SUNDAY NIGHT --- THINGS CHANGE EVEN MORE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S, SO IT`S GOING TO BE A VERY MUGGY NIGHT. GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING THAT WE`LL BE GETTING INTO THE RING OF FIRE AROUND A VERY BIG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MID WEST. ALOFT, A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING. LOOKS LIKE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML) WILL BE IN PLACE OVER US AND EXTENDING INTO ONTARIO. THE HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY EVEN OVERNIGHT. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS, BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WE`LL HAVE AN AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND IT MAY ROLL INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. LATER FORECASTS WILL OF COURSE FINE TUNE THIS ASPECT, AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY POOR AT PROVIDING ANYTHING SPECIFIC RELATING TO CONVECTION, OTHER THAN GIVE US CLUES SOMETHING MAY HAPPEN. &&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SUBTLE CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST...PRIMARILY TO RAISE CHANCES OF PCPN TO HIGH CHANCE DURING MONDAY AS SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. AMPLE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY...AND WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WE`RE LIKELY TO SEE A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE DAY...SOME OF WHICH COULD GET QUITE STRONG. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR SUPPORTING ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS IDEA SO I SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE HERE. HIGHS MAINLY LOWER TO MID 80S GIVEN A TAD MORE CLOUD COVER...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 QUITE THE MUGGY DAY ON TAP. FRONT THEN CLEARS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY LATER MONDAY EVENING AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NRN NY/NEW ENGLAND/QUEBEC. THUS MAINLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES.

THEREAFTER...FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN AS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. REMAINS ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYER HEAT RIDGE OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST...WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH ANY POTENTIAL SHORTWAVES AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS RIDING SOUTHEAST IN THIS FLOW. AS ALLUDED TO YESTERDAY THE CURRENT STATE OF THE SCIENCE MAKES IT NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME THESE TYPE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE FEATURES BEYOND 24 HOURS...NEEDLESS TO SAY 5 TO 7 DAYS OUT. N0NETHELESS OUT OF RESPECT FOR MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PAINTED A LOW THREAT (20/30%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...ACKNOWLEDGING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A FEW PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS TO BEGIN THEIR SLOW CREEP UPWARD ONCE AGAIN...WITH MAX VALUES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

[powderfreak]

In any case, I take it as a very good sign when our Northern Vermont ski terrain and snow are so easily confused with Utah's.

Ha that's what I was thinking... that's not far off from some areas in the Hellbrook area of Mansfield. Especially the upper section coming off the football fields. We get more snow than most of the Colorado resorts, but Utah we can't touch for snowfall, lol.

[adk]

Ha that's what I was thinking... that's not far off from some areas in the Hellbrook area of Mansfield. Especially the upper section coming off the football fields. We get more snow than most of the Colorado resorts, but Utah we can't touch for snowfall, lol.

Not this year. LCC topped 800 inches. Still skiing from Superior summit to the road at alta.

That's a great disco. Very interesting look on monday. I'm thinking we'll see a few svr thunderstorm warnings across the northcountry.

[powderfreak]

Another amazing summer day... currently 80F, down from a high of 84F. Started the day off with a low of 49F. I absolutely love these days where the lows get down into the upper 40s and lower 50s for great sleeping weather, and then it gets up into the 80s during the day. Just perfect for July.

[adk]

Another amazing summer day... currently 80F, down from a high of 84F. Started the day off with a low of 49F. I absolutely love these days where the lows get down into the upper 40s and lower 50s for great sleeping weather, and then it gets up into the 80s during the day. Just perfect for July.

Def. didn't get that cool down here in South BTV. I got home around midnight last night from being downtown (it was packed) and my car therm. read 64. It was a crisp 64 but 64 none the less. I woke up early to run the island line and it was again around 64. I'd say it dropped maybe into the middle to upper fifties.

I could see the elevated humidity building in from the south west as I ran this am. Def. going to get moist over the next 36 hrs.

[powderfreak]

Def. didn't get that cool down here in South BTV. I got home around midnight last night from being downtown (it was packed) and my car therm. read 64. It was a crisp 64 but 64 none the less. I woke up early to run the island line and it was again around 64. I'd say it dropped maybe into the middle to upper fifties.

I could see the elevated humidity building in from the south west as I ran this am. Def. going to get moist over the next 36 hrs.

Haha nice... enjoying the nightlife in BTV? I love that place for going out at night with thousands of college co-eds running around and a general upbeat festive atmosphere on Church and Main streets.

Got down to 52F last night, up to a high of 85F again. Wow, amazing stretch of weather with 3 straight days of highs in the low to mid 80s and lows from 49-52F. Perfect sleeping weather the last 3 nights even with the hot afternoons. I love living in a mountain valley as opposed to the Hudson or Champlain valleys that I'm used to where it doesn't cool off much at all.

Last three nights of low temps at the local ASOS stations for comparison...starting with Friday morning's temp, Saturday morning's temp, and this morning's temp:

BTV...58F, 56F, 60F

MVL...49F, 50F, 53F

Elevation difference is not very much with BTV at 330ft and MVL at 730ft. However, BTV is higher than Burlington proper (city is like 150ft-300ft) and further from the lake... downtown Burlington probably doesn't get below 60F much of the summer. MVL on the other hand is the lowest elevation around these parts at 730ft. I'm right around 800ft (slightly further up the West Branch drainage) and sometimes in the morning I'll be a degree or two colder than MVL, other times MVL is colder by a degree or so. My low temps the last three nights have been 50F, 49F, 52F for comparison.

[powderfreak]

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2am. Some storms could be severe, with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain. Widespread haze after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Southwest wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Monday: Occasional showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2pm. Some storms could be severe, with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain. Widespread haze before 8am. High near 72. Southwest wind 10 to 13 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

This will be fun tomorrow sitting at 3,700ft in the Cliff House.

[klw]

Looks like a nice line of storms dropping out of canada. If they hold together I may get woken up in a couple of hours.

[wxeyeNH]

Looks like a nice line of storms dropping out of canada. If they hold together I may get woken up in a couple of hours.

Line is really weaking right now but next 5 days looks like a really active period for storms in New England. Interesting times for summer T storm freaks!

[powderfreak]

These things are cruising along... gotta be at least a refreshing breeze with this for a few minutes.

[powderfreak]

KMSS gusted to 52 mph as it passed.

[adk]

Another robust line moving through central ADK into central VT:

With the shear in place some of these could pop off some hail I guess.

[wxeyeNH]

Another miss here in my area. Nothing overnight and the line of showers mid day has moved through with almost nothing. Enough to wet the pavement but under the trees it remains dry. Less than 1" the past month. Everything misses. Maybe something will develop once this line gets out here but not optimistic.

[Allenson]

Another miss here in my area. Nothing overnight and the line of showers mid day has moved through with almost nothing. Enough to wet the pavement but under the trees it remains dry. Less than 1" the past month. Everything misses. Maybe something will develop once this line gets out here but not optimistic.

We've had a lot of misses this season so far over here too---which is rare, or seemingly so. Since we've lived in Corinth, we've often ended up in the cross-hairs but again, this summer has been quite different on that matter.

We did have some rain this morning though. I was at work in Hanover when it came through so I don't know how much fell but I'll see what's in the bucket when I get home later this evening.

I'd love to see a 2-3" steady soaker over a couple day's time.

[eekuasepinniW]

Thursday Night and Friday

Mostly cloudy. Lows around 70. Highs in the upper 80s. Wind chill values as low as 120 below.

[Allenson]

LOL, here's a screen grab for ya.

[klw]

LOL, here's a screen grab for ya.

I wonder if wind chill warnings will get posted. Even for NNE that is some pretty chilly stuff for Thurs- Fri.