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NNE rollin' through summer


Allenson

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Enjoyed my trip out to the NW Cascades. My brother in law sent me this picture of him taken 2 days ago. The picture is of Three Creeks Lake at 6550 feet just west of Bend Oregon. Still solid snow cover at 6000 feet and as you can see ice was not yet out of the lake yet. Incrediable for July 2nd!

That simply boggles my mind... I can see the deep snowpack remaining in place but to still have ice on a lake is absolutely nuts! That thing must freeze solid to the bottom or something during the course of a winter. Awesome picture.

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It's July and PF is still posting pics of snow. :cry:

j/k

Up to 77F, but it has been fairly cloudy with some mid-level As. The clear blues are working back in from the NW though. I'll probably end up around 87F again today.

Haha... but you know what? I realized that'll be the last snow picture I put up on here till October or whenever the first snowfall is. I only had to post that because it was the 4th of July :thumbsup:

Today was surprisingly hot to me (wasn't expecting it)... we got up near 70F at 3,700ft so I knew it was probably baking in the village (that's the warmest I've seen it up at that level so far this summer). 1,550ft thermometer at Mountain Operations maxed out at 82F. Just got home to see my thermometer at 800ft hit a high of 85F at some point today after a low of 55. I do love these 30 degree diurnal swings we've been having this summer.

I don't have reliable Td sensor but judging by the values at MVL it was a relatively dry heat with MVL seeing 85/54 at one point. It looks like Morrisville, Montpelier, and Burlington all saw relative humidities get down to 30-35% during max heating so at least it wasn't oppressive.

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Haha... but you know what? I realized that'll be the last snow picture I put up on here till October or whenever the first snowfall is. I only had to post that because it was the 4th of July :thumbsup:

Today was surprisingly hot to me (wasn't expecting it)... we got up near 70F at 3,700ft so I knew it was probably baking in the village (that's the warmest I've seen it up at that level so far this summer). 1,550ft thermometer at Mountain Operations maxed out at 82F. Just got home to see my thermometer at 800ft hit a high of 85F at some point today after a low of 55. I do love these 30 degree diurnal swings we've been having this summer.

I don't have reliable Td sensor but judging by the values at MVL it was a relatively dry heat with MVL seeing 85/54 at one point. It looks like Morrisville, Montpelier, and Burlington all saw relative humidities get down to 30-35% during max heating so at least it wasn't oppressive.

Yeah...when the winds picked up here I had L50s dews mix down. It wasn't bad at all coupled with M80s.
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That simply boggles my mind... I can see the deep snowpack remaining in place but to still have ice on a lake is absolutely nuts! That thing must freeze solid to the bottom or something during the course of a winter. Awesome picture.

I can't figure outwhy that lake looks like ice is finally going out on July 2nd.. The climate in the Cascades is of course very snowy but at 6500 feet in the Oregon Cascades is not fridged. Maybe the lake froze and then with ten feet of snow on top of the ice it is just insulated so well that the ice just does not melt till the snowcover melts of on top. My brother in law put the picture on his facebook page and I didn't ask him about the lake, just saw the picture and to me it looks like the ice is just going out. What else could be making the lake look that way?

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I can't figure outwhy that lake looks like ice is finally going out on July 2nd.. The climate in the Cascades is of course very snowy but at 6500 feet in the Oregon Cascades is not fridged. Maybe the lake froze and then with ten feet of snow on top of the ice it is just insulated so well that the ice just does not melt till the snowcover melts of on top. My brother in law put the picture on his facebook page and I didn't ask him about the lake, just saw the picture and to me it looks like the ice is just going out. What else could be making the lake look that way?

Hrm.

Winnipesaukee has had ice out as late as May 12th and it's only at 504 feet.

Rangeley Lake - May 24th at 1518 feet.

Moosehead Lake - May 30th at 1023 feet, so 4-5 weeks later for 6500 feet doesn't seem too far fetched I guess.

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I can't figure outwhy that lake looks like ice is finally going out on July 2nd.. The climate in the Cascades is of course very snowy but at 6500 feet in the Oregon Cascades is not fridged. Maybe the lake froze and then with ten feet of snow on top of the ice it is just insulated so well that the ice just does not melt till the snowcover melts of on top. My brother in law put the picture on his facebook page and I didn't ask him about the lake, just saw the picture and to me it looks like the ice is just going out. What else could be making the lake look that way?

Much drier air in the west and much higher elevation=mega radiational cooling. A lot of refreezing probably occurs during the spring/early summer on clear nights, which would not be possible in the more humid eastern climate...once lakes start to ice out here, you aren't really gaining anything back.

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Much drier air in the west and much higher elevation=mega radiational cooling. A lot of refreezing probably occurs during the spring/early summer on clear nights, which would not be possible in the more humid eastern climate...once lakes start to ice out here, you aren't really gaining anything back.

This is really true. In Bend (altitiude 3200 feet), the big city just east of the Cascades many nights get down to near freezing even in summer. So at 6500 feet I am sure most nights are well below freezing early in the season. There is a lake in Franconia Notch around 3000 feet, I wonder when ice out occurs there?

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Just saw the warning scroll across the TV.... solid looking line crossing the Champlain Valley. Looks promising. Given that the storm is moving at 60mph there has to be some wind with this.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

230 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

LAMOILLE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VERMONT...

NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL VERMONT...

SOUTHERN GRAND ISLE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VERMONT...

NORTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...

EAST CENTRAL CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...

NORTHERN CHITTENDEN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VERMONT...

SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VERMONT...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT.

* AT 229 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STORM WAS NEAR SAND BAR

STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...

WESTFORD...MILTON...CAMBRIDGE...JEFFERSONVILLE...HYDE PARK...

MORRISVILLE...WOLCOTT...ELMORE...

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO PRODUCING DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND

LIGHTNING.

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL TO

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 800 8 6 3 4 2 7

9...OR BY SUBMITTING A STORM REPORT AT WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GET TO SAFETY IMMEDIATELY WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. WINDS

MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AND DAMAGE BUILDINGS. LARGE HAIL

MAY CAUSE INJURY AND DAMAGE PROPERTY.

BOATERS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR NOW! STRONG WINDS

WILL CAUSE HIGHER WAVES AND SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS MAY OVERTURN BOATS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM WEDNESDAY

EVENING FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

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Much drier air in the west and much higher elevation=mega radiational cooling. A lot of refreezing probably occurs during the spring/early summer on clear nights, which would not be possible in the more humid eastern climate...once lakes start to ice out here, you aren't really gaining anything back.

Yeah but remember the Cascades and coastal mountains aren't nearly as dry as the inter-mountain west of Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, etc. Your point is still valid but its not like its a desert dry air there... its practically a rain forest, err snow forest in this case.

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Yeah but remember the Cascades and coastal mountains aren't nearly as dry as the inter-mountain west of Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, etc. Your point is still valid but its not like its a desert dry air there... its practically a rain forest, err snow forest in this case.

Yeah, but it is pretty dry in late spring/early summer. Looking at Bend's forecast, a lot of nights get down into the 40s with clear skies.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Bend&state=OR&site=PDT&textField1=44.0583&textField2=-121.314&e=0

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Sweet shots, Borderwx! Same exact sky here... I mean literally the same exact sky right as the storm was moving in.

Just got power back after about a 75 minute outage. Tons of lightning strikes (fire department was racing back and forth up RT 108) and solid wind. I'm not sure I'd call it "severe wind" but I'm pretty sure we saw gusts to 50mph. Many small limbs down.

It looks like a lot of places got hit pretty good with this one including 1.00" hail in downtown Burlington on North Ave and Riverside Ave (they are in the "North End").

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
435 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
           ..REMARKS..

0153 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PAUL SMITHS             44.44N  74.25W
07/06/2011                   FRANKLIN           NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

           TREES DOWN ON PROPANE TANK

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W PLATTSBURGH         44.70N  73.47W
07/06/2011                   CLINTON            NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

           TREES POWERLINES DOWN ON ROUTE 3 AND ALONG TOM MILLER
           RD

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PERU                    44.58N  73.53W
07/06/2011                   CLINTON            NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

           TREES DOWN ACROSS RT 22B

0230 PM     HAIL             GEORGIA CENTER          44.73N  73.12W
07/06/2011  E0.50 INCH       FRANKLIN           VT   PUBLIC

0240 PM     HAIL             2 E SAVAGE ISLAND       44.69N  73.21W
07/06/2011  M1.00 INCH       CHITTENDEN         VT   PUBLIC

           10 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN ON A CAR... 1 INCH HAIL
           MEASURED

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E SAVAGE ISLAND       44.69N  73.21W
07/06/2011                   CHITTENDEN         VT   PUBLIC

           10 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN ON A CAR... 1 INCH HAIL
           MEASURED

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S MILTON              44.61N  73.13W
07/06/2011                   CHITTENDEN         VT   PUBLIC

           TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES ON ROUTE 7

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLCHESTER              44.54N  73.15W
07/06/2011                   CHITTENDEN         VT   PUBLIC

           TREES DOWN ALONG WATKINS ROAD

0251 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAIRFAX                 44.67N  73.01W
07/06/2011                   FRANKLIN           VT   PUBLIC

           TREES DOWN AND NICKEL-SIZED HAIL

0255 PM     HAIL             2 NW BURLINGTON         44.50N  73.23W
07/06/2011  M1.00 INCH       CHITTENDEN         VT   PUBLIC

           REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MILTON                  44.62N  73.13W
07/06/2011                   CHITTENDEN         VT   PUBLIC

           TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN- EAST ROAD IMPASSABLE

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE MILTON            44.58N  73.10W
07/06/2011                   CHITTENDEN         VT   PUBLIC

           NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND ROOF SILO BLOWN OFF ALONG
           ROLLING IRISH ROAD

0256 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MILTON                  44.62N  73.13W
07/06/2011                   CHITTENDEN         VT   PUBLIC

           10 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN

0256 PM     HAIL             BURLINGTON              44.48N  73.21W
07/06/2011  E1.00 INCH       CHITTENDEN         VT   PUBLIC

           QUARTER-SIZED HAIL ON RIVERSIDE AVENUE

0258 PM     HAIL             BURLINGTON              44.48N  73.21W
07/06/2011  E1.00 INCH       CHITTENDEN         VT   PUBLIC

           QUARTER-SIZED HAIL ON NORTH AVENUE

0305 PM     HAIL             WINOOSKI                44.49N  73.19W
07/06/2011  E0.75 INCH       CHITTENDEN         VT   PUBLIC

           DIME-SIZED HAIL

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE SHELBURNE POINT    44.42N  73.21W
07/06/2011                   CHITTENDEN         VT   PUBLIC

           NUMEROUS TREES UPROOTED ALONG MARTINDALE ROAD

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHELBURNE               44.38N  73.23W
07/06/2011                   CHITTENDEN         VT   PUBLIC

           TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT SHELBURNE

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ESSEX CENTER            44.51N  73.06W
07/06/2011                   CHITTENDEN         VT   NWS EMPLOYEE

           NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREE DAMAGE

0315 PM     LIGHTNING        ESSEX CENTER            44.51N  73.06W
07/06/2011                   CHITTENDEN         VT   PUBLIC

           CHURCH IN ESSEX STRUCK BY LIGHTNING

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S HINESBURG           44.31N  73.11W
07/06/2011                   CHITTENDEN         VT   PUBLIC

           MANY TREES AS LARGE AS 12 INCHES DOWN BETWEEN MONKTON
           AND HINESBURG

0330 PM     TSTM WND GST     CORNWALL                43.96N  73.21W
07/06/2011  E60 MPH          ADDISON            VT   PUBLIC

           3 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES DOWN

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MORRISVILLE             44.56N  72.60W
07/06/2011                   LAMOILLE           VT   PUBLIC

           TREES AND SIGNS DOWN THROUGHOUT MORRISVILLE

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S MIDDLEBURY          43.97N  73.17W
07/06/2011                   ADDISON            VT   PUBLIC

           TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WATERBURY               44.34N  72.75W
07/06/2011                   WASHINGTON         VT   PUBLIC

           TREE DOWN OVER RAILROAD TRACKS

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STOWE                   44.47N  72.69W
07/06/2011                   LAMOILLE           VT   PUBLIC

           LARGE TREE DOWN BLOCKING SKY ACRES ROAD

0348 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE BARTON            44.76N  72.12W
07/06/2011                   ORLEANS            VT   PUBLIC

           SMALL TREES DOWN

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW PUTNAMVILLE       44.31N  72.58W
07/06/2011                   WASHINGTON         VT   PUBLIC

           TREE DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF CULVER HILL ROAD AND
           ROUTE 12

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Sweet shots, Borderwx! Same exact sky here... I mean literally the same exact sky right as the storm was moving in.

Just got power back after about a 75 minute outage. Tons of lightning strikes (fire department was racing back and forth up RT 108) and solid wind. I'm not sure I'd call it "severe wind" but I'm pretty sure we saw gusts to 50mph. Many small limbs down.

It looks like a lot of places got hit pretty good with this one including 1.00" hail in downtown Burlington on North Ave and Riverside Ave (they are in the "North End")

thats pretty wild, nothing to bad here, limbs and what not, coventry got blasted though, trees snapped, etc

it was like watching a really slow wave

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Had some moderately rowdy weather here yesterday--thunder, lightning, rain, wind...but no hail that I saw.

Only picked up 0.28" of water though. I'll take it but I'd have liked to have seen a bit more. At least the driveway didn't get washed out. :whistle:

Maybe some upper 40s tonight?

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Garden variety TS for MBY - 1/3" rain, wind gusts to perhaps 30 shook out some leaves and dead twigs. Friends driving from Sumner to Farmington had to detour around fallen trees, saw several that had been split by lightning, with blinding rain and small hail as they traveled Route 4 from Jay into Wilton. The 50-yr-old original ski lodge at Mt. Abram suffered serious fire damage, apparently lightning-started.

Breezy and PC today, might be mid 40s by tomorrow morning. Good stuff. The 06z gfs had h85 temps of 6-7C out at day 10, weird for mid July - with clear and calm that would give my place a shot at upper 30s. (And of course it won't turn out that way.)

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It looks like 0.45" at the CoCoRAHS station that is very close to my home location... you beat me again!

Man if I ever need to be between Burlington and Mansfield again, I'm living right next to you. I looked at an apartment directly across the river from you in Duxbury and would've been a half mile to a mile from you.

Every time I look at the CoCoRAHS maps your location is almost always the "wettest." You sure your rain gage isn't under your gutters?

It amazes me in a great way the amount of precipitation you squeeze out over the course of a year from the Spine.

Sometimes I'll send in my CoCoRaHS data, look at the reports from some of the other stations, and find myself wondering if I somehow forgot to empty my gauge and make my report for the previous day ;). But at this point it’s becoming obvious that we just get more precipitation than surrounding spots away from the spine. I’ve been measuring the snowfall at the house now for several years, and I’ve only been doing the rainfall/liquid equivalent for CoCoRaHS for about 18 months, but I’m starting to get enough liquid precipitation numbers now to see that it’s a big part of what pumps up the snowfall totals. Before I began measuring total liquid (with the rain gauge during the warm season or with the snowboard cores/gauge during the cold season), I had wondered if it was just the fluff factor from upslope snow that produced the bigger snowfall numbers around here. That’s certainly part of it, but it’s become obvious that there’s a real increase in moisture to boot.

I already had a copy of that Vermont annual precipitation map with my location pinpointed in red, so I added that below for reference. On that map, BTV (#5) and MPV (#6) both fall into the orange “Under 36” inches of annual precipitation category (although MPV looks to be on the border of “36 to 40” inches). My location on the map in the Winooski Valley is two gradations up from there in the yellow “40 to 44” inches category. In terms of hard numbers, indeed both BTV and MPV are very close to 36 inches according to the data at the Vermont Station Climatographies page; BTV’s annual precipitation is 36.05 inches (elevation 330’), and MPV’s annual precipitation is 35.91 inches (elevation 1,126’). It is interesting to note that they even have a Waterbury climate site (elevation 760’) on the Climatographies page; it’s a bit south of the center of town, on Cobb Hill Road beyond Crossett Brook Middle School. The location coordinates are provided with the data, so if you just enter 44.317, -72.750 (I converted the minutes to decimal) into Google Maps or Google Earth you can actually see the site that they use. That site is several miles to the east of here, somewhat removed from the spine, but according to the climate data even they get a significant bump in precipitation (43.23” annually) compared to BTV/MPV. On the map, that Waterbury site would actually fall into the green “44 to 48” inches category, which is one step above the yellow “40 to 44” inches category they have for our site. I’m not sure why there would be that increase in precipitation farther to the east of here prior to getting into the Worcester Range, but perhaps there is an elevation bump out there as the 760’ elevation for the Waterbury climate site would suggest. Anyway, the 43.23” for that site isn’t too far outside the green “44 to 48” inches category, so I’d say the map is a reasonable fit.

03APR11A.jpg

I only have one year (2010) of total precipitation data for my site (elevation 495’), but assuming everything was proportional in terms of precipitation last year (a somewhat big assumption, but a year is a pretty good stretch of time and these locations are all close and subject to the same general weather systems) I can try to get an estimate of what the actual average precipitation is for my location. First let’s look at the Waterbury climate site. Averaging the BTV and MPV values gives 35.98”, and for that Waterbury site the climate data indicate 43.23”, which is 120% of the BTV/MPV average. Now if I use the 2010 data for BTV and MPV (BTV received 40.73 inches and MPV received 39.78 inches, for an average of 40.26 inches) we can see that it was a wet year relative to those climate averages, but presumably wet all around. For 2010 I recorded 54.17” of total liquid, which is 134.6% of that average BTV/MPV value. Based on that one season of data, it would put the average precipitation for my location at 48.43”, which is up in the dark green “48 to 52” inches category. So far for the six months of this calendar year though, we are only running at 127% of BTV/MPV, so that would suggest an average of ~45.7” of precipitation here. So with the data at hand, this location is probably in that green “44 to 48” inches category if I had to make a first guess. Based on this preliminary analysis, the coloring on that Vermont annual precipitation map isn’t all that bad – they’ve got my location in the yellow, close to bordering on the green. We’ll have to see what several years of data say, but based on these 18 months that green shading that is off to the east of us in Waterbury could probably be nosed back into the Winooski Valley for some distance. I’m not sure how far to have that green filled in, but it most certainly falls off by the time one gets to the center of Richmond, which is located just about halfway between the red dot for my location and the #5 for BTV. I’d love to see the distribution of precipitation every few miles along the Winooski Valley and see where the upslope influence maxed out (I wouldn’t be surprised if it was around our area) and where it fell off.

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Checked out the larger AUG snowdump this AM, the one that's on the east shore of the K'bec, under the downstream bridge. Looks like 10+ feet remaining, and the pile must still cover 1/4 acre or more. The one I see every workday, on a west slope, is down to maybe 6' and no more than 1,500 sq.ft. coverage. Given current outlooks, I expect the smaller pile to be gone in about 10 days, but the much bigger one should just make it into August, unless we get a true (and sustained) torch, or some tropical toadstrangler.

Edit: 12z gfs shows AUG not getting above 83 during the next 16 days, with under 2" total rainfall and over half of that out at D16. Also has a silly-cool period D11-13, with H85 temp as low as 3C.

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Finally after 3 weeks or so got some good rain last night. A quick heavy shower around dark that gave .20" and then another .37" in the early morning hours. Just a perfect this AM, cool with a nice breeze. Property in true mid summer mode. Pond a little low but couldn't ask for much better. Enjoy everyone!

Gene

post-268-0-49592100-1310221538.jpg

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Surprisingly good rain midnight to 7 AM, 0.87", most I saw for anyplace in western/southern Maine. Radar at 6 PM was not encouraging - looked like the main area would stay south and the PQ patch would stay north. Glad I was mistaken.

Partly cloudy and breezy IMBY at present, and seasonably warm low 70s with a nice breeze bringing in drier air.

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Naswa??

Would be an awesome day on the lake. I thought about heading up there later to eat at Giuseppe's. It's still only 74F here with NW winds gusting to a peak of 27mph so far.

It appears MOS is going to blow another one. I think last night's MAV had 86F for CON and their 12/1/2pm obs have been 78/78/77 respectively. I'm enjoying this stretch of temps verifying cooler than guidance. Hopefully that holds into fall/winter. :snowman:

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