Allenson Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 A little bit nervous about Irene. We had a VAST meeting Tuesday night to talk about snowmonile trail damage from flooding back in May. There is an estimates half million dollars worth of repairs needed in Washington County alone. We don't need really heavy rain causing more washouts. I know Irene isn't as strong as 1938 but I don't want that track. 1938 and the flood of 1927 are the two big weather events that I remember hearing old timers talk about when I was growing up, I don't want to see a reapeat right now. Latest track forecasts have the center of Irene off to our east again--NE-N winds will the order if that's the case and yep, some pretty heavy rains by the sounds of things. Pretty much on high alert over here. Might build a couple water bars acorss our road/driveway tonight and I really need to make sure out culvert is nice & clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Latest track forecasts have the center of Irene off to our east again--NE-N winds will the order if that's the case and yep, some pretty heavy rains by the sounds of things. Pretty much on high alert over here. Might build a couple water bars acorss our road/driveway tonight and I really need to make sure out culvert is nice & clear. Yeah that might save you a lot of time and effort later on... the ski area operations staff has put all other projects on hold and is making sure every drainage and culvert is in working order...especially along and next to all the work roads and major drainage basins. I can remember some big problems up there from blocked culverts in large drainage basins... like 100 foot long wash-outs and muddy divots left all over the place. There was one flash flood last summer than damaged part of the transfer gondola terminal when the culvert under the parking lot jammed up... they had whitewater moving through the base area stairs and past the Mountain Operations Center. The pictures were pretty crazy. Sounds like they want to avoid that this time around, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 ...WINDS... DIRECTION AND TIMING...NORTHEAST AND INCREASING SHARPLY BY LATER SUNDAY...BACKING TO STRONG NORTHERLY...THEN NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED/GUST SPEEDS...SUSTAINED SPEEDS 30 TO 45 MPH. GUSTS 35 TO 50 MPH ACROSS NY...AND 45 TO 65 MPH ACROSS VT. HIGHEST WINDS LIKELY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT DUE TO NORTHERLY CHANNELING...AND ALSO LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN VT WHEN NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS MORE LIKELY. ALSO PLEASE NOTE...HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 2500 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT. IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE LIKELY AND LARGE SCALE POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yeah that might save you a lot of time and effort later on... the ski area operations staff has put all other projects on hold and is making sure every drainage and culvert is in working order...especially along and next to all the work roads and major drainage basins. I can remember some big problems up there from blocked culverts in large drainage basins... like 100 foot long wash-outs and muddy divots left all over the place. There was one flash flood last summer than damaged part of the transfer gondola terminal when the culvert under the parking lot jammed up... they had whitewater moving through the base area stairs and past the Mountain Operations Center. The pictures were pretty crazy. Sounds like they want to avoid that this time around, haha. Ayup, I got some projects in the works for later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Getting a chuckle out of my point forecast's precip forecast. A wee bit underdone I'd reckon. Saturday: A chance of showers, mainly after noon. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 77. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Saturday Night: Occasional rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 63. South wind 5 to 7 mph becoming east. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Sunday: Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 70. Windy, with a east wind 13 to 16 mph increasing to between 26 and 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Sunday Night: Showers. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 61. Very windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Must've had that "tenth to a quarter inch" stuck in the computer's craw. GFS has been fairly consistent since yesterday's west shift, with 2-4" for the general area. Anything 4" or less should spare my area from any flooding beyond small brooks and inadequate culverts. If it were to approach 6", might be nastier, but still not major floods. Both the 5 and 11 AM tracks from NHC have the center passing about 20 miles west of MBY in the wee hours Monday, with top winds 65 mph. I see no way I get speeds like that at 390' and in the woods, maybe some gusts in that range if one is at 2,000. For MBY, 25G45 is more likely, quite Floydian. If any of my remaining tall and defective aspens go down, the easterly component of the winds (prior to the center passing) would dump them within the woodlot rather than across the road and powerlines. NW wind is parallel to the road, SW wind is how we've lost power due to nearby damage in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Ready for my 5" rain here. Center should stay SE of me so not concerned about wind too much but I remember with Bob when I lived outside Boston that as the storm passed the NW winds were brutal. Those might be my highest winds. What a perfect day today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Ready for my 5" rain here. Center should stay SE of me so not concerned about wind too much but I remember with Bob when I lived outside Boston that as the storm passed the NW winds were brutal. Those might be my highest winds. What a perfect day today! Yeah, I've seen some pretty hefty N-NE winds when the center passes off to the east before. We're fairly sheltered from that fetch here at the house but exposed locales will definitely take it on the chin. As for NNE in general, I'm thinking we'll see trees down by way of tip-ups (as opposed to snaps), power outages, dirt roads washed out (gulp) and some flooding. Even though we've had some rain recently, the dry spell in July should actually help a fair bit now as soils are ripe for absorption. That's what I keep telling myself anyway. Steams, brooks and rivers are still low so there's a bit of room for level expansion. Speaking of, the Wilder Dam along the Connecticut River dumped a ****e-load of water last night and today. The river was way-low with an exposed muddy shoreline and lots of room to fill up. Shake & bake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Has impending doom ever looked so amazing. I wish I could do this sunset justice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvysnow79 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Has impending doom ever looked so amazing. I wish I could do this sunset justice. I concur one of the best sunsets I have seen in years, throw in some towering CU's looming around down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 With this much rain: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p48_048l.gif Some new slides are almost certain in the ADK and Greens. PF and JSpin...if that happens Greg and I are hellbent on a first Descent. Want in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted August 28, 2011 Author Share Posted August 28, 2011 Not too bad so far with Irene here. Picked up 1.09" of rain overnight, it's a little breezy but nothing crazy at all. Looks to me like all the real heavy rains (which were my biggest concerns here) are off to the west in upstate NY. The latest NHC track prediction has the center passing pretty much right over here but I have a hunch it might be even a little west. Radar filling in off to the SE and with the fetch that's going, we'll certainly get quite a bit more, but so far, so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Rain starting to come down pretty hard. Not a breath of wind yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Have had 2 TS overnight and into this am, .55" rain, Winds have been minimal so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted August 28, 2011 Author Share Posted August 28, 2011 Winds are picking up here some now--hard to tell in our swirly hollow but it seems like a northerly for the most part. I was just out in the driveway channeling some water via little trenches and a rotten branch came crashing off a tree and landed five feet from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Winds are picking up here some now--hard to tell in our swirly hollow but it seems like a northerly for the most part. I was just out in the driveway channeling some water via little trenches and a rotten branch came crashing off a tree and landed five feet from me. jezzus, stay safe!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted August 28, 2011 Author Share Posted August 28, 2011 Will do. Next time I'll put my motorcycle helmet on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbob Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Power has flickered a few times, highest gust at UHN Durham has been about 21 MPH so far. Over an inch of rain so far. A dryslot has moved through and raining again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Will do. Next time I'll put my motorcycle helmet on. I was going to suggest puting on a hard hat jokingly but that may not be a bad idea, One branch off the noggin could be the last.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted August 28, 2011 Author Share Posted August 28, 2011 Little lull in the rain at the moment but the wind is picking right up. Looks like another heavier batch poised to pass overhead shortly. Had one power flicker so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvysnow79 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 1.88" so far and raining moderately...oddly when I was out 15 minutes ago not a breathe of air moving. I think that is going to change shortly as the bands rotate northward, very impressive looking band over the Lakes Region right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted August 28, 2011 Author Share Posted August 28, 2011 1.88" so far and raining moderately...oddly when I was out 15 minutes ago not a breathe of air moving. I think that is going to change shortly as the bands rotate northward, very impressive looking band over the Lakes Region right now. Yeah, looks like a couple more business minded bands to rotate our way as the day goes on. Just had a pretty good gust come through. 25-30 maybe? River must be filling back up after Wilder dumped a ton over the past couple days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvysnow79 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Yeah, looks like a couple more business minded bands to rotate our way as the day goes on. Just had a pretty good gust come through. 25-30 maybe? River must be filling back up after Wilder dumped a ton over the past couple days... Yeah I bet the river is, as it will over the next day or so. Yeah they sure did dump a lot, probably the lowest I have seen the river in the 4.5 years I have lived here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Just had the first noticable gust of wind. Maybe 20 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 things startin to rock a little now, big maples are getting their NE facing limbs flattened out, 2" and counting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VtWxWatcher Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 2.6" of rain so far. Couple good gusts of wind. Power has flickered a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Shower ripping thru here now sustained wind 25 mph gust to 40 mph 1.85" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 The rain has been steady/heavy but the wind hasn't been all that bad, a few gusts here and there and enough to smack my little patch of corn around. It may be a function of the local topography. I am not particularly exposed. I haven't checked out any opbs from MPV yet, they are located in a much windier spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvysnow79 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 3.4" of rain so far and rain has picked up again, the brook on the property is absolutely raging right now, here are a couple pics of it. Yesterday, even after the recent rains, this was about foot or so wide and a few inches deep. Currently it is about 20 feet wide and a couple feet deep and moving faster than I have ever seen it. I did drive down to take a look at the CT river and it is still very low, I would imagine they would been continuing to try and dump as much out of the dams as possible. I did hear Flood Warning for upstream by a couple of towns from my location, so I am guessing by morning it will be full again. As for wind, a handful of gusts, with majority of the time being calm, as it is right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted August 28, 2011 Author Share Posted August 28, 2011 Back again after a four hour power outage. Crazy rains that just haven't let up since I got shut off. Looks to be easing up though shortly. Might take a little drive when it does and see what I see. Not sure of the exact total at the moment (checking the bucket shortly) but we're up over 5" for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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