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Heavy Rain Threat with Some Thunderstorms 6/17


Thunderdude

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Since none of the real weather people seem to be here, I will report as best I can.

I'd say it's been thundering and raining in Jersey City for at least 20 minutes. I see NWS updated our forecast at 5:05A calling for 1/2-1" (locally higher amounts of 1-2 inches possible) of precip today and thunderstorms. Earlier forecast was more along the lines of showers with maybe a few thunderstorms tossed in, as I recall.

Wonder if we'll really get all this here this afternoon:

"Stronger storms will be capable of producing gusty winds...small hail...heavy rain

and frequent lightning...but an organized severe threat is not

anticipated at this time.

Since I started typing, thunder has stopped but I think it's still raining.

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Woken up twice last night to the loudest thunder and rain I have heard in years. Wish it was during the day. One rumble that woke me up felt like somthing fell on my house

Same here, right around 630. Loudest thunder Ive heard in years. Woke up my entire apt complex.

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I have a theory (not mine alone) that thunder sounds apparently louder overnight when people are sleeping and are awoken by it. Unless you are a deep sleeper or in REM dreaming, a commonly loud noise will sound louder to you while you're sleeping, than when you're awake. It's akin to being startled awake. There is also much less other noises to mask the sound from the thunder, especially in urban areas where there's cars/traffic and other street noises which tend to drown out thunder during the day.

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The sun has broken out here in Ramsey. Latest surface analysis shows between 1000-1500 J/KG of SBCAPE, 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, decent mid-level lapse rates, improving low-level lapse rates. All in all I think that the severe parameters are a bit higher than thought. New storms are beginning to fire over NE PA and I think we stand a good chance at seeing some stronger storms after lunch.

sbcp.gif?1308322049031

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I have a theory (not mine alone) that thunder sounds apparently louder overnight when people are sleeping and are awoken by it. Unless you are a deep sleeper or in REM dreaming, a commonly loud noise will sound louder to you while you're sleeping, than when you're awake. It's akin to being startled awake. There is also much less other noises to mask the sound from the thunder, especially in urban areas where there's cars/traffic and other street noises which tend to drown out thunder during the day.

Agree...but last night was just ridiculous. I woke up out of deep sleep and jumped out of bed thinking we were being bombed or something.

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The sun has broken out here in Ramsey. Latest surface analysis shows between 1000-1500 J/KG of SBCAPE, 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, decent mid-level lapse rates, improving low-level lapse rates. All in all I think that the severe parameters are a bit higher than thought. New storms are beginning to fire over NE PA and I think we stand a good chance at seeing some stronger storms after lunch.

12z NAM isnt enthused with any additional real storms for our area. Keeps the best stuff way south.

NAM has been nailing temps and events, the past couple weeks.

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12z NAM isnt enthused with any additional real storms for our area. Keeps the best stuff way south.

NAM has been nailing temps and events, the past couple weeks.

It's not performed very well over the past month or so with regards to the strength of the convection. The 12z run from the day last week with the severe weather outbreak had virtually nothing organized at all. In fact the HRRR really had the best handel when it was all said and done. The current HRRR shows lots of activity later today.

Also, the current radar speaks for itself, numerous storms now over NE PA and the southern tier of upstate NY.

cref_sfc_f06.png

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12z NAM isnt enthused with any additional real storms for our area. Keeps the best stuff way south.

NAM has been nailing temps and events, the past couple weeks.

meh, it had some bad runs with the overnight stuff. A few runs kept the precip to the south, but I hope you are right about this afternoon, re-arranged my tee time.

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I was in indy on Wednesday and we had widespread 1 to 2" amounts while the NAM showed barely a 10th of an inch. Also hit some pretty cool storms driving back in WV last night...tried to get some cell phone pics but they didn't come out too great

It's not performed very well over the past month or so with regards to the strength of the convection. The 12z run from the day last week with the severe weather outbreak had virtually nothing organized at all. In fact the HRRR really had the best handel when it was all said and done. The current HRRR shows lots of activity later today.

Also, the current radar speaks for itself, numerous storms now over NE PA and the southern tier of upstate NY.

cref_sfc_f06.png

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You were more than welcome to mine.

Dammit I'm jealous I missed these as it sounds like they were pretty awesome. Night time storms are my favorite too. Wind energy in convection during the day often transfers to intense thunder/lightning at night.

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Dammit I'm jealous I missed these as it sounds like they were pretty awesome. Night time storms are my favorite too. Wind energy in convection during the day often transfers to intense thunder/lightning at night.

Well, according to Earthlight, your guys' area of new jeresey is hotter, sees more severe weather, and more snow than any other part of the nyc metro, so I am sure you will get yours.

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