WxUSAF Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 What models are they talking about? I don't see it on 6z GFS or NAM nor neither of the 0z hi-res WRFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 What models are they talking about? I don't see it on 6z GFS or NAM nor neither of the 0z hi-res WRFs. ^^ This I see a batch of precip. N of us in OH/PA, and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 What models are they talking about? I don't see it on 6z GFS or NAM nor neither of the 0z hi-res WRFs. I was thinking the same thing. But, none of the models really show any of the current stuff in OH/IN anyways so who knows. MCS was shown last night and we didn't get much, maybe when nothing is modeled we will actually get something. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 What models are they talking about? I don't see it on 6z GFS or NAM nor neither of the 0z hi-res WRFs. If there is supposed to be an MCS... then having 20 POPS in the forecast makes little sense either. 12z NAM doesn't have much late tonight into tomorrow morning through hr 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Well here is what to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Well here is what to watch. I'd like to see that try and break apart. Though, it's almost stationary....probably just a small warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 looks like "warm sector" stuff went too big and sapped us north of the low. not totally unexpectable i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 any takers? source region might be better than last go around... never learning is almost as bad as never trying to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 any takers? source region might be better than last go around... never learning is almost as bad as never trying to learn. Sure, I'll sign up for that. Just need Saturday and Sunday to cut down my foot-high grass after rain on 13 of the last 16 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 Sure, I'll sign up for that. Just need Saturday and Sunday to cut down my foot-high grass after rain on 13 of the last 16 days. it's like a different world up there.. at least we got some rain from one of these things last go around even if it wasnt storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 I guess I will keep an eye on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 it's like a different world up there.. at least we got some rain from one of these things last go around even if it wasnt storms. Last year at this time I was in a terrible drought, the well was drying up, the lawn was dying, and the garden crashed and burned. I am savoring this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 I guess I will keep an eye on it the euro and gfs have the look too.. 2 of them, maybe 3? euro takes the first south and the second over us. getting them going in the upper plains is better than the lower missouri valley or central plains trajectory wise at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 the euro and gfs have the look too.. 2 of them, maybe 3? euro takes the first south and the second over us. getting them going in the upper plains is better than the lower missouri valley or central plains trajectory wise at least. Trajectory-wise, that is better as you say... but we shall see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 pretty solid vort max.. washes out in panels after but we'll see. i'd rather have it a bit too north in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 pretty solid vort max.. washes out in panels after but we'll see. i'd rather have it a bit too north in this range. So would that indicate a threat for Sunday during the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 So would that indicate a threat for Sunday during the day? seems it would be evening/night at this pt but hard to say for sure.. if it even happens. timing seems at least a bit better than last go around tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Hmmmm Dr. Greg Forbes TUESDAY Severe thunderstorm outbreak in east half OH, PA, NY, VT, west MA, west CT, MD, DE, DC, VA, WV, west and central NC, northwest SC, north GA, north half AL, north MS, southwest, middle, east TN, east half KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 seems a little gung ho based on guidance but he's the expert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 seems a little gung ho based on guidance but he's the expert I'd remove the "outbreak" wording perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 I'd remove the "outbreak" wording perhaps. the gfs looks a bit closer to an OK threat but not necessarily that good yet... i think he is looking at the thing following the first potential mcs which would be sun night/mon am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 seems a little gung ho based on guidance but he's the expert Indeed. Seems a little gung for our region based on the general pattern of awfully dry as a default setting in and around the metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 the gfs looks a bit closer to an OK threat but not necessarily that good yet... i think he is looking at the thing following the first potential mcs which would be sun night/mon am FWIW, which is little, 12z GFS on Earl Barker looks a bit intriguing for Monday/Tuesday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Last year at this time I was in a terrible drought, the well was drying up, the lawn was dying, and the garden crashed and burned. I am savoring this. me too, though it is still quiet dry at my VA home , the growth here in WV has been amazing this year and a cool June with my monthly high at 89.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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