BethesdaWX Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 00z NAM has an MCS Tue AM? I'd rather it be the GFS showing the MCS, NAM has one every other run it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 worst mcs ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Just managed to mow the lawn this past afternoon - now MORE showers are forming and training directly over MBY. Chance of rain - near 100 percent tonight Chance of rain - near 100 percent Sunday Gnats and skeeters swarmed in clouds. My lawn is a profusion of deep green. Helped the neighbor mow hers -- That was a JUNGLE - took three long humid sweaty HOURS to get thru that high grass. Over four inches of rain in past 7 days - ANOTHER inch to inch and a half on tap tonight/tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Moderate 35 dbz rainfall continues - I have already measured a half inch tonight - and yellow returns continue to grow over Northern Virginia. Better have your mower tuned up. Lawns are growing like weeds this spring/summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Moderate 35 dbz rainfall continues - I have already measured a half inch tonight - and yellow returns continue to grow over Northern Virginia. Better have your mower tuned up. Lawns are growing like weeds this spring/summer Just mowed my lawn for the first time in two weeks. A month ago it was lush and green and had to be cut every 5 or 6 days, but already it's looking brittle and spindly even though I was lucky enough to get some good rains a week ago. Hopefully the second MCS will hold together east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 12Z NAM says that rain shield over KY this a.m. holds together and soaks us tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 12Z NAM says that rain shield over KY this a.m. holds together and soaks us tonight. Late tonight into tomorrow morning http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_ref_018l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_ref_024l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 12Z GFS generally agrees with the NAM, but has the placement a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 12Z GFS generally agrees with the NAM, but has the placement a bit further south. Seems like the NAM goes for the entire LWX area... the GFS does as well.. but the heaviest precip is from DC to the S/SW... looks like its going to be an interesting night Plus the h5 maps at hrs 18 and 24 have a s/w passing just south of DC on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 Just mowed my lawn for the first time in two weeks. A month ago it was lush and green and had to be cut every 5 or 6 days, but already it's looking brittle and spindly even though I was lucky enough to get some good rains a week ago. Hopefully the second MCS will hold together east of the mountains. the issue with the first was more lack of mcs than it making over the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 the issue with the first was more lack of mcs than it making over the mtns. What do you think about late tonight into tomorrow morning Ian? Seems lik we could finally see a MCS, though this one might be mostly heavy rain. The GFS is suggesting 1 to 2 inches of rain from DC and to the south and southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 What do you think about late tonight into tomorrow morning Ian? Seems lik we could finally see a MCS, though this one might be mostly heavy rain. The GFS is suggesting 1 to 2 inches of rain from DC and to the south and southwest tough to say still... looks like it should start to energize the next six hours. looks more or less on track, can see the s/w swirl near indy now. i'd probably want to lean south/southern side of depiction but that's sort of a guess based on how mcs' tend to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 tough to say still... looks like it should start to energize the next six hours. looks more or less on track, can see the s/w swirl near indy now. i'd probably want to lean south/southern side of depiction but that's sort of a guess based on how mcs' tend to work. NAM hit the entire LWX area, while the GFS favored DC/S MD/N VA/C VA and the mountains. I will be watching ovr the next few hours to see how the MCS develops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 euro hits us head on.. 1"+ northern 1/3 of WVa, no. VA/DC, no. Md except far northeast where a bit less. 2" dot in so pa just north of western md border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 The stuff blooming in Garrett Co and WV panhandle is promising for the entire area. Should gain size and strength as the afternoon wears on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 LWX Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... satellite shows breaks over NE Maryland...but remaining overcast as expected for the rest of our area. Temperatures are peaking within several degrees of 80 with very light northwest to NE winds for most. Low pressure from the Midwest will move east towards the area. Feeder bands of showers and thunderstorms developing over our SW counties will move east increasing the threat of showers and thunderstorms for all by evening...still with the best chances in the mountains and our SW counties. Debating on flash flood threat. Sat imagery and radiosonde observation soundings from this morning indicate that the high precipitation water content air associated with a tropical plume has moved east of the area. Also bands of showers and thunderstorms have been moving fast enough relative to their size to limit rain rates to less than an inch from the IFLOWS and surface observation stations that I have seen. Flash flood guidance is around 2 inches in an hour in our mountain counties with generally less than an inch reported since midnight. 3hr guidance is around 3 inches. With all that...am comfortable with localized flash flooding mentioned in the hazardous outlook for now. Certainly will have to watch that threat closely over the next several hours and may need to issue a watch if things change. Severe threat seems to be limited to our west central Virginia counties and points SW. && Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Monday/... challenging short term forecast as well. Both GFS and NAM have low moving east across our forecast area later tonight and the first half of Monday. While coverage isnt the best right now and this will pass during heating minimum...still expect numerous showers and thunderstorms overnight into Monday with the low. Will have to continue to watch the flooding threat as well. Low will shift east of the area Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Euro shows lots of precip monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Euro shows lots of precip monday Most of it is probably from the MCS that comes through after midnight tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 Most of it is probably from the MCS that comes through after midnight tonight All of it is. It comes through during the am to midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Meso-low? Almost looks like a spiral band of heavy storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I have a better feeling about this one since it looks like it will be developing closer to us and therefore would be able to make it into our area before dying out. We shall see if one should form soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Meso-low? Almost looks like a spiral band of heavy storms Could get interesting tonight into tomorrow for sure. I hope this one works out. Got a new scanner and want to listen to all the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 Meso-low? Almost looks like a spiral band of heavy storms the models close it off at the surface as it passes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Hopefully it starts blowing up soon. The northern Ohio stuff is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 nam gets us pretty good--not far enough out to get totals map http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_ref_012m.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_ref_018m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 nam gets us pretty good--not far enough out to get totals map http://www.nco.ncep....am_ref_012m.gif http://www.nco.ncep....am_ref_018m.gif I am thinking the counties just north of MD/PA line down to Southern MD will get it the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 radar for center of universe area big vvs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_700_012l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_700_015l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 qpf map is similar to the euro tho more in wv/less in pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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